Is it over for the DISH DVR?

**samy60** · 03-12-2008 09:39 AM

This from another site:
'Clear consequences' ahead for EchoStar
By Paul Bond, The Hollywood Reporter, March 12, 2008

TiVo CEO Tom Rogers told Wall Street analysts Tuesday that EchoStar could be about three months away from a painful comeuppance for infringing on TiVo's DVR patents.

Speaking at the Bear Stearns 21st annual Media Conference in Palm Beach, Fla., Rogers said EchoStar, run by Charlie Ergen, will "ultimately have to own up to this issue," and he said that the longer it drags on the more it "plays into TiVo's hands."

TiVo successfully sued EchoStar before that company split into two: EchoStar and Dish Network. The judgment, with interest, has probably grown to more than $100 million while an injunction demands that EchoStar disable an estimated 4 million DVRs that its customers use.

TiVo, however, has yet to benefit from the court ruling and a subsequent victory at the appellate level, and Rogers on Tuesday slammed EchoStar for its delay tactics.

The CEO used combative language like "contempt proceeding" and "clear consequences," and he predicted EchoStar will feel the "full impact" of a "far-reaching" injunction.

In an unusual display of frustration, he even complained that Wall Street hasn't yet given credit to TiVo for its legal triumphs over EchoStar, judging from a stock price that is largely unchanged from two years ago.

Rogers said investors shouldn't be distracted by claims from EchoStar that it has deployed a software workaround so that its DVRs no longer infringe TiVo's patents, thus avoiding having to shut down its customers' DVRs.

Rogers said that, after consulting with engineers and lawyers, it is "highly, highly unlikely" that EchoStar has indeed built and deployed such a solution.

"Everything EchoStar has said about this case has turned out not to be the case," he said.

By the time he was done speaking Tuesday, TiVo shares were up more than 10% to $8.27, making it the second largest gainer on The Hollywood Reporter Showbiz 50 stock index.

Rogers focused much of his time on EchoStar because the issue was top of mind for Kunal Madhukar, the Bear Stearns analyst who interviewed the TiVo CEO. Madhukar is one of the more bullish Wall Street analysts, predicting that TiVo shares will rise about 70% this year to $14.

Madhukar also quizzed Rogers on TiVo's waning relationship with DirecTV. But now that DirecTV is controlled by Liberty Media and not News Corp., Rogers said there is a "cleaner, clearer path," though to what he wouldn't say.

He said that because TiVo's high-definition stand-alone boxes work only with cable -- coupled with the fact that Comcast and Cox each have embraced TiVo -- that cable has a de facto exclusive on the most popular DVR brand in the marketplace, to the detriment of satellite TV.

And Rogers said that commercial avoidance, a phenomenon that TiVo has practically turned into an art form, is "a game-over issue for television."

"Our role needs to be: How do we solve for that?" he said, touting TiVo's aggressive rollout of interactive advertising platforms that have yet to contribute much to the company's bottom line.

TiVo last week reported a quarterly net loss of $6.36 million, down from a loss of $19.5 million a year ago.

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/hr/...2e154dc4bed7e2

**aperry** · 03-12-2008 09:46 AM

It's Tivo spin, nothing more. Unless Dish plans to totally fold their satellite service, they're not going to allow their DVR's to get disabled.

**hrxtreme** · 03-12-2008 09:53 AM

DISH DVRs no longer infringe due to SW updates already in place. TiVo wants $$$.

**darrencp22** · 03-12-2008 09:55 AM

Sounds like Tivo is on it's deathbed grasping for air.

**dead3ye** · 03-12-2008 09:55 AM

Originally Posted by aperry

It's Tivo spin, nothing more. Unless Dish plans to totally fold their satellite service, they're not going to allow their DVR's to get disabled.

Agreed.

Rogers said investors shouldn't be distracted by claims from EchoStar that it has deployed a software workaround so that its DVRs no longer infringe TiVo's patents, thus avoiding having to shut down its customers' DVRs.

Rogers said that, after consulting with engineers and lawyers, it is "highly, highly unlikely" that EchoStar has indeed built and deployed such a solution.

He's reaching. Like lawyers know anything about programming code. Even if "his" engineers say it can't be done is laughable.

**JEFFinINDY** · 03-12-2008 11:06 AM

Originally Posted by darrencp22

Sounds like Tivo is on it's deathbed grasping for air.

Yep. When companies stop innovating and instead turn to the legal system to boost their income and stock price, it's practically game over.

TiVO has a good product, but it could have been so much more.

**Super Dave** · 03-12-2008 11:18 AM

Originally Posted by JEFFinINDY

Yep. When companies stop innovating and instead turn to the legal system to boost their income and stock price, it's practically game over.

TiVO has a good product, but it could have been so much more.

We loved our TiVo product when it was the only one. Now with all cable/satellite companies having their own with 2/3 tuners DVRs why would we pay almost $20 extra dollars/month for basically the same capabilities?

**Scott Greczkowski** · 03-12-2008 11:23 AM

The DishDVR is not going anywhere.

Charlie has the money in the bank to pay them off, and its collecting interest.

If Tivo wants to fight more and drag this out a few years then it will kill Tivo, thus I think Charlie would love for them to keep fighting so he can keep his money in the bank.

**shetaan819** · 03-12-2008 11:54 AM

TiVo is an excellent product and I'd lovvvve to see it for satellite television - with the Comcast & Cox TiVos coming soon, wouldnt you guys love to see Dish and Direct give them competition ??!

As much as I love TiVo, I had to sell mine because I went to Dish and didn't have use for it but I really miss it....its one of those things that until you have one, its hard to see the difference between your average DVR and a TiVo..

This patent infringement thing is just the ticket for Dish to partner up with TiVo and come up with an awesome DVR.....Direct will probably be coming out with the ReplayTV DVR soon so I dont see how Dish has a choice but to come up with better software for their DVR....

**Greg Bimson** · 03-12-2008 12:23 PM

In case the TiVo v. Echostar case is completely missing from everyone's mind, I'll go over points:

Originally Posted by aperry

It's Tivo spin, nothing more. Unless Dish plans to totally fold their satellite service, they're not going to allow their DVR's to get disabled.

To a point, I'll agree. There is an injunction, which has been stayed pending appeals, that will force Dish Network to remove all DVR functions from their customers. Whether or not Echostar and Dish Network can win the appeal to stop the injunction is another issue. Or, whether Dish Network and Echostar hammer out a licensing agreement with TiVo to avoid the injunction is another scenario.

Originally Posted by hrxtreme

DISH DVRs no longer infringe due to SW updates already in place. TiVo wants $$$.

Of course they do. But no one knows if Dish Network DVR's no longer infringe. Suprisingly enough, Dish Network must prove to the courts that the software no longer infringes upon the TiVo patent.

Originally Posted by darrencp22

Sounds like Tivo is on it's deathbed grasping for air.

Not quite. Unless the courts find in favor of Echostar's and Dish Network's appeal, TiVo is already guaranteed about $150 million.

Originally Posted by dead3ye

[TiVo's CEO Rogers is] reaching. Like lawyers know anything about programming code. Even if "his" engineers say it can't be done is laughable.

Well, let's see. Do you choose to believe the statement from CEO Ergen that Echostar's and Dish Network's engineers have rewritten the code so that it no longer infringes, or do you believe CEO Rogers that it is almost impossible for Dish Network to get around that code? If you believe either one, you have a pretty large bias.

Originally Posted by JEFFinINDY

Yep. When companies stop innovating and instead turn to the legal system to boost their income and stock price, it's practically game over.

Yes, but is it because Echostar and Dish Network ripped off TiVO? After all, TiVo approached Dish Network back in 1998 about a partnership to build satellite DVR's, and Dish Network had a prototype of the TiVo box. Who is to say Dish Network and Echostar didn't reverse-engineer the prototype to come up with their own DVR? Which leads me to...

Originally Posted by SuperDave

We loved our TiVo product when it was the only one. Now with all cable/satellite companies having their own with 2/3 tuners DVRs why would we pay almost $20 extra dollars/month for basically the same capabilities?

And that is the entire point of this lawsuit. TiVo wants to license their software to all cable and satellite companies. When DVR's first came about, it was because of TiVo, Microsoft and ReplayTV. The cable set-top box manufacturers joined late in the game. And none of them particularly wanted to partner with the existing DVR companies to build a box. But almost all of the cable companies have some type of DVR, which also may infringe on the TiVo portfolio of patents.

We can't make rash assumptions. TiVo is trying to build their business, too, just like Echostar and Dish Network. TiVo has changed over the past few years. They still have a licensing agreement with DirecTV, and are testing boxes based on newer agreements with Comcast and Cox in the northeast. But they still do not have an agreement with Dish Network, which is probably the largest provider of DVR's that have no affiliation with TiVo.