Tivo hearing today?

[jacmyoung]

... I suspect that if Tivo loses, they might not be in business long enough to ever produce those D* HD Tivo boxes.

While I will say that to a TiVo fan's face if he gets too out of line during the debate, in reality, there is still this $150 million damages Charlie will like to keep to himself, if not all at least a good portion, in exchange for agreeing to some kind of licensing.

So a settlement is almost a sure thing, even if TiVo loses. TiVo will be able to claim victory, even if they loses, because having mojor agreements with D*, E*, Comcast and Cox, among a few others, will be a big bragging right for TiVo, never mind the details.

DISH will be able to use many TiVo's other DVR gigs without fear of litigation, and have a chance to really make their DVRs better than anyone else.

[Thomas22]

I suspect that if Tivo loses, they might not be in business long enough to ever produce those D* HD Tivo boxes.

TiVo has no debt and $100 million in cash in the bank today. New subscribers will be coming in from standalone sales plus Comcast, Australia, Cox etc.

The $120 million in escrow will be released by the Supreme Court on Oct. 6.

The district court in Texas will be ruling on additional $200 million in damages during the stay in a couple of weeks.

Dish may be asking TiVo for a loan.

[harshness]

New subscribers will be coming in from standalone sales plus Comcast, Australia, Cox etc.

This should help offset the loss of 600,000 subscribers since last year. DIRECTV still owns 54% of their subscriber base and the new DirecTiVo HD unit isn't expected for at least a year so those customers will likely continue to thin.

Not everything is rosy at TiVo and they're going to have some pretty substantial investments in product development for the aforementioned overseas markets as well as having to foot the bill for software development for the new DIRECTV HD TiVo and carry that through to 2010.

There's a reason that the Q2 conference call started off with a note about the imminent influx of cash from Echostar.

[navychop]

I hear Tivo has never earned a profit. Not good. But Jacm may be right, and Tivo staggers on.

I suspect the TR-50 will thin sales of Tivos. Why buy something that will cost you a monthly fee indefinitely, when you get almost the same thing with no monthly fee?

I just hope Dish/Echostar doesn't use the TR-50 as a bargaining chip with Tivo. So I'll buy one as soon as I can, just in case. Plus, Echostar is entertaining the idea of producing boxes for cablecos. Maybe the eventual deal will be for a good sale of Tivo to Echostar. It's beginning to make more and more sense.

[Thomas22]

Not everything is rosy at TiVo and they're going to have some pretty substantial investments in product development for the aforementioned overseas markets as well as having to foot the bill for software development for the new DIRECTV HD TiVo and carry that through to 2010.

Ummm... the Australian TiVo is already on the market. It's a big success. Development for the DirecTV TiVo should be minimal. TiVo will just provide the software which will include advertising time sold by TiVo. DirecTV is on the hook for the all the hardware cost. TiVo just has to sit back and collect the royalties and the advertising profits.

[harshness]

Tivo has made a profit in four of five three quarters of their existence. Their forecast for this quarter is a net loss of $9 million.

The TR-50 competes at an entirely different level than the HD TiVo. The Echostar product is aimed at those who do their TV programming OTA while the TiVo is aimed at the CATV market where people are quite used to getting charged monthly for much of what they could get for free otherwise.

[Thomas22]

There's a reason that the Q2 conference call started off with a note about the imminent influx of cash from Echostar.

Stop lying. Comcast and Australia were discussed long before Dish.

Why do you guys even bother lying about stuff so easy to disprove?

No really, Id like to know, What is the motivation?

[DishSatUser]

Dish may be asking TiVo for a loan.

HA!

Damages, settlement, whatever, it'll be a bump in the road long term. Talking about two different entities of significantly different size.

How about this senario?

Tivo recognizes the need for someone to purchase them long term for a more solvent return to shareholders. By sweeting the pot about damages, settlement costs and so on, it may be more attractive for DISH or ECHOSTAR to purchase them. (Likely Echostar as we remember spinning off Dish Networks allows them to begin creating technologies and products for other markets outside of Dish, including developing Slingbox HD DVRs for cable and other Sat vendors. Imagine cable with a "Echostar" ViP 722 like box. You already see some examples with the DTVPal converter box.)

Then they'll (Echostar most likely) have both the sling intellectual properties as well as the Tivo properties. Imagine the additional "face" smacking when the competition has to admit they are licensing technology from the competitor (although indirect as it's Echostar and not Dish Network). COX and all those wouldn't be as happy then.

Tivo's shares goes up during the stock transfer portion and Dish/Echostar can go on with their new capabillities and no worries about how the patents are used (they'll own them at this point).

Stranger thangs have happened, and this is not outside the relm of possibility.

[harshness]

Ummm... the Australian TiVo is already on the market. It's a big success.

The Australian TiVo has only been available for 70 days, so it may be premature to say that is has taken the country by storm. It is also notable that in the Australian market, TiVo service is free and that doesn't make for a huge ongoing revenue resource. Also notable is that TiVo is still working on adding media capabilities, external hard drive capability and MRV.

All this and Australia isn't expected to complete their digital transition (the TiVo only does DVB-T digital) for another five years.

Development for the DirecTV TiVo should be minimal.

Why should this be minimal? It has taken DIRECTV over two years to try to make something of the platform and it is far from what is expected of a modern TiVo.

TiVo will just provide the software which will include advertising time sold by TiVo.

The software is the whole deal. It isn't something that you can sweep under the carpet as insignificant.

TiVo just has to sit back and collect the royalties and the advertising profits.

For their efforts, TiVo gets an additional 50 cents more from DIRECTV customers with the new DVR for the first few months. Not exactly raking it in for something that will doubtless cost millions to develop.

[navychop]

Tivo has made a profit in four of five quarters of their existence. Their forecast for this quarter is a net loss of $9 million.

HUH? Tivo was incorporated in August
1997

in Delaware. PE is zero, as in, no profits. Total Net Income for the last year, Q3 07-Q2 08 shows in the red. They have positive
net income

for the first 2 quarters of 08, more than overcome by their losses in the last 2 quarters of 07.
"TiVo Inc. managed consecutive quarters of profitability for the first time ever"

(1st two Q of 08) per the linked AP article. The
LA Times


reported in May 2007 that Tivo made their first profit ever in the quarter ending 4/07- 1 cent per share.

So no, Tivo has never had a profitable year. This might be their first. Maybe. Probably not.