Dish Network gives a nice surprise for the Holidays

[Curtis0620]

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Originally Posted by Jhon69

Well I believe that Dish is on it's way back as DirecTV is putting in rules that are not friendly for the DirecTV subscriber,case in point me I came back due to crappy DVRs and not enough standard definition programming.

Plus why would Charlie even consider buying Tivo when Dish has the best technology?.Maybe to have something to wipe his boots on?.

They stole it from TiVo. Time to pay up.

[Don Landis]

Originally Posted by jacmyoung

On the other hand I do see your point. You think this news could be timed for the ex dividend date or are you saying the news is not relevant?

You mean this news?:

EchoStar Corporation Names Michael Dugan President and CEO
6:01a ET November 18, 2009 (Market Wire)

EchoStar Corporation (NASDAQ: SATS) announced today that Michael T. Dugan has been named the company's president and CEO, positions formerly held by Charles Ergen. Mr. Ergen will remain chairman of EchoStar Corporation.

Mr. Dugan currently serves on the board of directors for EchoStar and previously served in several executive roles, including president and chief operating officer, at the combined company from 1990-2004 prior to EchoStar's spinoff from DISH Network Corporation in January 2008.

"Mike was the chief architect behind the technological foundation for EchoStar and DISH Network, and I am pleased to welcome him back into the company he helped build," said Mr. Ergen. "Having Mike on board, along with the current executive management, establishes a highly seasoned team for leading EchoStar's endeavors in deploying advanced set-top box technologies and delivering satellite services worldwide."

Mr. Dugan began his EchoStar career as vice president of engineering for the subsidiary that later became EchoStar Technologies L.L.C.

First of all, Echostar is a separately traded (SATS) company. While I agree that Echostar and Dish Network are tightly related, 43% of Echostar is owned by institutions, probably mostly DishNetwork but I don't know. I don't see Echostar having an impact on the price of Dish like it did, when the price of Echostar itself was basically unaffected. The news item above is probably too soon to see SATS impact yet. The price of DISH was affected in a classic "dividend" sense.

Personally, I see any fall back now into the $18 region as a great opportunity to buy more, not for additional dividends, but because I feel it will go to mid 30's in a year to 18 months. I do agree with your tech analysis on the number of quarters of growth. Like taxes, that has to do with the numbers of people, subscribers and I do believe with all DirecTV's latest ( operational) troubles, combined with Dish's 3rd quarter additions and the 922 which will be a paradigm shift in sat DVR receivers, it is poised to return to all time highs. If DirecTV solves their poor customer service issues and gets better hardware, then they will eat into that time table. DirecTV is now trading at a lifetime high. Plus, Liberty Media has just announced it is holding a special stock holders meeting tomorrow morning. Presently I am sold out on DTV, so I have a passing interest in what this is all about.




Below is a graphic showing the runup of $2 a share announcement made on the 9th to the Ex Dividend date the 18th and how it fell back about $2 after the $2 award date. This chart is about as perfect a theoretical example of dividend runup and fall as it gets.

[jacmyoung]

Thanks for your good analysis.

There is just a little too much of a coincidence to have a news of Charlie stepping down as E* CEO on the same day of the ex dividend day. Such news led to TiVo pumpers all excited about a potential merger between E* and TiVo.

Personally I think E* and TiVo working together will be a great thing for them, I have been saying so for the last year. Neither of them had made any head wave at pushing their own hardware onto the cable market, but a co-branded E*/TiVo hardware platform will immediately have a big buyer called DISH, on the other hand DISH can certainly benefit from such agreement because E* holds the Sling IP, TiVo holds some DVR and ad IPs, both are important to future Internet TV transition.

Therefore maybe, just maybe, Charlie stepping back a little from E* is a signal something might happen between E* and TiVo.

[Don Landis]

Oh yeah TIVO. Frankly I haven't paid much attention on them but below is how their stock changed over the past few days. Can you see some correlation between the it and the announcement? I sure can't.

As far as Dish buying out TIVO, I used to favor that move purely for legal reasons. Frankly, TIVO has been out of the tech forefront for several years now. They have nothing to offer on the DVR and Echostar VIP series is way above and beyond what they could bring to the table. Their time has come and now gone. And yes I do speak from experience as I own several TIVOs including one that is a lifetime member system. I remember paying $500 for that. And I owned a DirecTV HR10-250 which I modified for plugin hard drives. Then they didn't have a replacement when everything moved to MP4. The 10-250 became a doorstop!
How much time left on those old patents anyway? No sir! Buying TIVO for an inflated price is just not worth it. Charlie can keep them in court until TIVO is bust. If TIVO was smart, they would end their money pit of a legal fight and get back to work making some innovations again. Then license that to Charlie at a fair price and make some real money.

[jacmyoung]

Of course I did not mean buying TiVo at an inflated price, in fact I do not recall Charlie ever bought anything even at a fair price, do you?

He had said in the last call that he saw some "relationship" with TiVo when eventually "the path will be clear". If what he meant was he saw a successful appeal, and of course if that happens, TiVo will be at a good price. Removing himself from E* seems to lay some ground work for that. Of course just a theory.

[Jhon69]

Originally Posted by Don Landis

Oh yeah TIVO. Frankly I haven't paid much attention on them but below is how their stock changed over the past few days. Can you see some correlation between the it and the announcement? I sure can't.

As far as Dish buying out TIVO, I used to favor that move purely for legal reasons. Frankly, TIVO has been out of the tech forefront for several years now. They have nothing to offer on the DVR and Echostar VIP series is way above and beyond what they could bring to the table. Their time has come and now gone. And yes I do speak from experience as I own several TIVOs including one that is a lifetime member system. I remember paying $500 for that. And I owned a DirecTV HR10-250 which I modified for plugin hard drives. Then they didn't have a replacement when everything moved to MP4. The 10-250 became a doorstop!
How much time left on those old patents anyway? No sir! Buying TIVO for an inflated price is just not worth it. Charlie can keep them in court until TIVO is bust. If TIVO was smart, they would end their money pit of a legal fight and get back to work making some innovations again. Then license that to Charlie at a fair price and make some real money.

I agree with you Don 100%.

Last I heard was the Tivo patents expire in 2018.

[jacmyoung]

Originally Posted by Jhon69

...Last I heard was the Tivo patents expire in 2018.

You need to thank the PTO for that. TiVo has been trying to extend that patent since 2003, so far the PTO has stopped it in its own trap. But the back and forth is still going on.

[Jhon69]

Originally Posted by jacmyoung

You need to thank the PTO for that. TiVo has been trying to extend that patent since 2003, so far the PTO has stopped it in its own trap. But the back and forth is still going on.

That's from D*'s agreement which is supposed to last until 2015 with an option to 2018 would imagine D* would not continue the agreement unless they felt they had to.

So it is true.We are from the government and we are here to help you........Tivo. (the third world's greatest lies)

[Don Landis]

The extent of my expertise in Patents is that it is 17 years from issue and you have one year to file after market disclosure. After reading the Tivo threads I concluded the patents were about worthless, the fight more about legal posturing than legitimacy and the thread debate more about fanboys and CEO hating than anything worth time reading.

But as far as Dish is concerned, the whole deal of owning TIVO now is not worth it. Licensing is more of a way to shelve the spat between TIVO and Dish which is what DirecTV did. I still say TIVO should be back at work trying to regain #1 position in the DVR business, then they would have something DirecTV would be interested in to make it their flagship DVR. Even they latest TIVO being advertised is old hat for features. It resembles what Echostar introduced a year ago.

Anyway, the way to buy TIVO now is on the short swings and hope for a court ruling that goes in their favor so you can sell the day after it jumps.

Dish and Echostar is a long bet with good solid steady growth of revenue. It can no longer be said that DISH doesn't pay dividends after yesterday so that adds to the ROI. IMO, all three, Dish, DTV, and SATS are great buys. TIVO, is a get rich quick or go bust quick game.

[jacmyoung]

Originally Posted by Don Landis

... I still say TIVO should be back at work trying to regain #1 position in the DVR business, ...

If this is what you truly believe, then I must respectfully say you do not know what you are talking about on this particular issue.

TiVo cannot compete in the DVR market because they do not hold content, they are not content carrier. TiVo recognizes that, they are trying to add content to its service, such as Netflix, Blockbuster and the like. But such content is very limited.

As long as the other true content carriers, such as cable, DirecTV, DISH, ATT/Uverse and so on, have their own DVR services, TiVo simply cannot compete in this market, no matter how advanced their DVRs are.

This is precisely why TiVo has been forced to go the litigation route. Once this route ends, TiVo will be at a very good buy. Why do you think DirecTV bought ReplayTV? Of course TiVo will not be like ReplayTV at a fire sale, TiVo will still be worth some serious dough, but then TiVo also has more wider range of IPs that are more valuable, not to mention the name "TiVo" itself.