U.S. And Russian Satellites Collide

[Foxbat]

Space is big. Satellites are small. What are the odds of a collision?

The first outer space traffic accident.

Hardly. Ten minutes with Google turned up the following:


From STS-7, circa 1983.




From STS-97, circa 2000.


Another shuttle window hit.

So, to answer your first question, higher than you'd think.

[skysurfer]

The orbit is moderately low, but the debris cloud is rather large (and growing). Not a good thing...

I wonder if there are small pieces with enough energy from the collision to make it to GEO. There is still quite a bit of space out at GEO so a working sat probably is unlikely to be hit.

I do think the ISS is in decent danger since the pieces have to come through the orbit altitude of the ISS on their way to decay. I expect ISS to be doing a lot of avoidance maneuvers as some of those pieces come close to the ISS on their way to eventual decay.

[rad]

Story here

Wow.....good thing this was not E5/Ceil2.

Even better that it wasn't the ISS.

[Smith, P.]

I wonder if there are small pieces with enough energy from the collision to make it to GEO. ...

Perhaps you thinking about explosion, not collision - in later case I would say theoretically impossible those particles to reach GSO orbit 36000km altitude starting from LEO 800 km orbit. Sorry, but it's baseless speculation.

[Sammy033]

Hardly. Ten minutes with Google turned up the following:

I was just going to look for such a picture. I knew something hit a shuttle window once but didnt know it happened multiple times.

[denisincalif]

Small things exist in orbit around earth by the millions. It is no surprise that the Space Shuttle windows have been hit more than once. Most satellites are built to withstand reasonably low energy collisions with small objects. But two full size satellites crashing into each other was thought to be extremely improbable. Yet it happened. Somebody somewhere was asleep at the switch, or our tracking facilities are not as good as I thought they were.

As someone earlier said, the geosynchronous satellites (like those used for GPS and for satellite TV) are in no danger from this debris cloud. But there are plenty of satellites that are now at greatly increased risk, including all the NOAA weather satellites and the Earth Observing System satellites. Most of them are in orbits at 700 km, a mere 80 km lower than the two that crashed. Debris will cross their orbits. It is true that there is a lot of volume up there. I don't know for sure, but I suspect the probability of some big chunk wiping out one of these birds is still very small. But it is not zero. The people who operate these satellites are going to have to be vigilant. Some of their lifetimes may be shortened by having to use up fuel for evasive maneuvers.

[Smith, P.]

Saw latest assesment - the parts will spread between 500km and 1300km altitudes.

[mbarnes]

As someone earlier said, the geosynchronous satellites (like those used for GPS and for satellite TV)

GPS satellites are NOT in geo orbits. They're swinging at various angles at around 20,200km (12,600 miles). About half way to the Clarke belt.

FWIW.

[long_time_DNC]

If sat folks (for LEO sats) aren't staying on their toes after this incident, the consequences for unimaginable disaster could grow even larger...

[Foxbat]

Okay, we launch big Aerogel disks a few inches thick and as wide across as we can fit in a launch vehicle and fly them with the disk's face exposed to the direction of travel. After a year or so of collecting the smaller debris pieces, the disks are de-orbited (presumably in an area where no one would be at risk). Sort of like skimming a pool to pick up bugs and leaves and gunk, but at orbital velocities...

For the bigger objects, there's always the SPECTRE Solution. Of course, that may lead to heightened international tensions and you'd need to find a nice volcano that could double as your top-secret launch facility...