Apple losses are Google gains

**riffjim4069** · 07-09-2010 04:56 PM

Originally Posted by Don Landis

Actually, diogen is pretty close- The first real popular Apple computer hit the market in '77 ( Apple II) however, the IBM "PC" was indeed later on with the so called compatibles about 84-85. Apple was up against other computer systems like Kapro, Northstar on the commercial side with the big name Commodore and Radio Shack ( recall the Model 1?) at the consumer level. I bouight the Model 1, ugraded to a Model 3, later to a Tandy 1000 before building my own compatible from scratch. Never owned an Apple.

Apple had the lions share of a very small personal computer market in the late '70s. The market really didn't develop into a monster until the release of the IBM PC in '81. I don't think any of us are in disagreement...just that Apple and IBM did not complete directly prior to that time. Anyway, I would gladly get a new Android phone (personal) when Sprint lets me active it and keep my SERO plan. Unfortunately, I am doomed to keep my Windows Mobile phone until then.

Riff...

**diogen** · 07-09-2010 05:00 PM

I meant 76 and 81 as the first Apple and IBM were introduced, respectively.

The real competition started (and ended shortly afterwards) later.
Therefore, today's competition between Android and iOS would probably be better compared to the 80's, like riffjim4069 said.
It just happens in a much more compressed, "internet timeframe"...

Diogen.

**riffjim4069** · 07-09-2010 05:01 PM

Originally Posted by diogen

I meant 76 and 81 as the first Apple and IBM were introduced, respectively.

The real competition started (and ended shortly afterwards) later.
Therefore, today's competition between Android and iOS would probably be better compared to the 80's, like riffjim4069 said...

Diogen.

Check...

**diogen** · 07-09-2010 05:49 PM

It is interesting that Jobs is trying to play a similar game some 30+ years later...

I have no doubts Apple will make a sh!tload of money with its smartphone business
but I'm not sure they will have more market share than Mac in PC business after the dust settles...

Favorite quote from Forrest Gump:

...Dan got me invested in some kind of fruit company.
So then I got a call from him, saying we don't have to worry about money no more.

Diogen.

**Don Landis** · 07-10-2010 08:16 AM

I have no doubts Apple will make a sh!tload of money with its smartphone business
but I'm not sure they will have more market share than Mac in PC business after the dust settles...

Yeah, you get it. With interest in both Google and Apple; Verizon, AT&T, and Sprint ( although I'm currently sold off on Sprint), I'm more interested in the size of the pie than who has the bigger share. As you said earlier the BRIC is where it will be and I think the IC is the biggest concern. I was very happy to hear that Google is beginning to patch it's troubles with China. As Apple ramps up production, it's costs in China will drop and then look out...

Meanwhile- Microsoft is headed for the spinoff shack, I'm afraid. Like AOL, it's days are numbered. I love my TP2 as it does what I need and desire. I hope I don't have to give up too much if I have to switch to Android some day.

**mike123abc** · 07-10-2010 10:54 AM

Another thing to remember is that the pie is growing fast. It is not like Apple is selling fewer units. Instead its volume is increasing, it is just that Google's is growing faster. It is a huge conversion from regular cell phones to internet cell phones.

**navychop** · 07-10-2010 04:37 PM

After the first IBM PC was introduced in 1981 (they weren't a player in micros before that) it spelled the doom of Heath/Zenith and everybody else, except for Apple and clones. I don't see such a consolidation in mobiles. We are more function and interface oriented today. Most don't even know what OS is in their cell.

**diogen** · 07-11-2010 11:03 AM

Originally Posted by Don Landis

Meanwhile- Microsoft is headed for the spinoff shack, I'm afraid.

Right...
As soon as they sort out the one OS issue with Apple...

Originally Posted by Don Landis

I wonder when Apple and Microsoft will give up the battle and settle in on one OS that runs on all platforms.

Diogen.

**diogen** · 07-28-2010 05:55 PM

Just some updates on the numbers game:

-since June 160,000 Android phones are activated daily, 4.8M per month
-compare that with 100K in May, 60K in February and 30K last year

Impressive rate increase - 60% in a month! - no matter how you look at it.

An instant poll at Fortune’s tech conference last week asked: “Who would have the dominant smart phone in five years?”
The verdict was clear: 57 percent picked Android; 37 percent picked iPhone.

Letter From Silicon Valley: Doing the Math on Android vs. Apple | Epicenter*| Wired.com

Whoa! Google Android Activations Leap 60% In A Month

Diogen.

**Don Landis** · 07-28-2010 11:05 PM

diogen, I read your complete article. You should have gotten beyond the first two paragraphs.

The article claims that the comparison between "phones" is not valid. Something I argued about months ago in this debate. The article agrees that the real race is with the iOS vs. Android OS. not the iphone vs all phones that can run android. So they claim that the numbers still stack up as iOS 6.85 Mil per month vs, Android at 4.8 Million per month.

Yes, Android is selling at a rapidly increasing rate and might catch up if Apple does nothing to expand it's sales. However, they are not sitting still. They continue to offer the iphone in more and more countries. Look to the future when in the US, the iphone will no longer be limited to one carrier. Will this be enough? I doubt it.

Google doesn't make phones, it makes the OS. Apple makes it's phone and its OS. Google has several phone makers building android phones while Apple only has one phone, and two non phone devices ipad and ipod. There are new Android phones being released every month. Apple releases one new development a year. With that said Android should and will likely be the dominate OS for phones in the world. But, will any single hardware device running Android beat out the current sales for iphone? I doubt it. iphones become obsolete in 12 months. Android phones seem to become obsolete in 3 weeks!

So, my prediction is that the iphone will remain the single best selling hardware device phone for the foreseeable future, but Android OS will become the dominate OS for many phones.

What should Apple do to compete?- should be obvious- Apple needs to license it's OS to run on non Apple made hardware! I predict this will be Apple's major policy move once Steve Jobs leaves.

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