Thread: 2008-09 MLB Hot Stove

Offseason Outlook: Cleveland Indians

By Tim Dierkes

The Indians are next in our
Offseason Outlook series


. Their likely commitments for 2009:

C - Victor Martinez - $5.7MM
C - Kelly Shoppach - $404K+
1B - Ryan Garko - $420K
2B - Asdrubal Cabrera - $400K
SS - Jhonny Peralta - $3.4MM
3B - Andy Marte - $400K
IF - Jamey Carroll - $2.5MM club option or $150K buyout
LF - Shin-Soo Choo - $400K
CF - Grady Sizemore - $4.6MM
RF - Franklin Gutierrez - $405K
OF - David Dellucci - $4MM
OF - Ben Francisco - $400K
DH - Travis Hafner - $11.5MM
SP - Cliff Lee - $5.75MM
SP - Fausto Carmona - $2.75MM
SP - Anthony Reyes - $400K
SP - Jeremy Sowers - $400K
SP - Scott Lewis - $400K
RP - Masahide Kobayashi - $3MM
RP - Rafael Betancourt - $3.35MM
RP - Rafael Perez - $407K
RP - Jensen Lewis - $400K
RP - Edward Mujica - $400K
RP - Tom Mastny - $400K
RP - John Meloan - $400K

Other rotation candidates: Jake Westbrook - $10MM (due back from Tommy John around All-Star break), Aaron Laffey - $400K, Zach Jackson - $400K, David Huff - $400K
The Indians are all about cost certainty - I don't see any major arbitration cases coming up aside from Shoppach. If they retain Carroll, they'll have about $64MM committed. The Indians entered this season with a $79MM payroll, so they could have $15MM to spend this winter.
The Indians were right in the middle of the AL with a .339 OBP and .424 SLG. In the second half, though, the Tribe had one of the AL's best offenses. Overall the Indians had below-average offensive performances at first base, second base, third base, left field, right field, and designated hitter.
Choo's encouraging performance indicates he might be able to hold down an outfield corner. Matt LaPorta could take the other. The Indians have to hope Hafner can become a useful hitter again, if not the offensive force of 2004-06. The team seems likely to seek upgrades in the infield. All four positions are fair game, as
Peralta could be moved to third


due to questionable defense at short. Cabrera
could move to short


.

Possible free agent fits: Orlando Hudson and Rafael Furcal. Many infielders may be on the trade market: Adrian Beltre, Prince Fielder, Ryan Howard, Dan Uggla, Adam LaRoche, Brian Roberts, Melvin Mora, Mike Jacobs, Edwin Encarnacion, Garrett Atkins, Robinson Cano, Freddy Sanchez, and Rickie Weeks. The Indians could use Shoppach as a trade chip, but only if they're confident with Martinez behind the dish long-term.

The rotation is shaky after Lee, as Carmona had a terrible year and Westbrook will be out until midyear. Carmona dealt with a strained hip for much of '08; the Indians need him to regain his control next year. Reyes and Lewis showed promise in small samples, but a shrewd veteran addition a la Kevin Millwood in '05 would stabilize the rotation. Freddy Garcia? Bartolo Colon? Randy Johnson, maybe?

The Indians are
focused on importing a closer


, though they may stick with Lewis if nothing works out. Brian Fuentes could make sense, and the trade market might offer B.J. Ryan, Huston Street, and Kevin Gregg.
It will be a challenging offseason for Mark Shapiro, as the Indians have many needs. A payroll increase could go a long way, though attendance doesn't seem to support one.

Offseason Outlook: Cincinnati Reds

By Tim Dierkes

The Reds are next in our
Offseason Outlook series


. Their probable commitments for 2009:

C - Ryan Hanigan - $400K
C - Wilkin Castillo - $400K
1B - Joey Votto - $400K
2B - Brandon Phillips - $4.75MM
SS - Alex Gonzalez - $5.375MM
3B - Edwin Encarnacion - $450K+
IF - Andy Phillips - $440K
IF - Jeff Keppinger - $403K
LF - Chris Dickerson - $400K
CF - Ryan Freel - $4MM
RF - Jay Bruce - $400K
OF - Norris Hopper - $403K
OF -
SP - Aaron Harang - $11MM
SP - Bronson Arroyo - $9.5MM
SP - Edinson Volquez - $400K
SP - Johnny Cueto - $400K
SP - Micah Owings - $402K
RP - Francisco Cordero - $12MM
RP - Jared Burton - $400K
RP - Mike Lincoln - $550K+
RP - Bill Bray - $400K
RP - Gary Majewski - $400K+
RP - Ramon Ramirez - $400K
RP - Nick Masset - $400K
Non-tender candidates: Matt Belisle - $1.25MM+
Other commitments: Yonder Alonso - $400K
Rotation candidates: Daryl Thompson - $400K, Homer Bailey - $400K, Ramon Ramirez - $400K

The Reds have roughly $54.5MM committed before arbitration raises to Encarnacion, Lincoln, and Majewski. After that, they'll still be under $60MM (with a fifth of the payroll going to the closer). The Reds entered this season with a $74.1MM payroll, so they might have money to spend.
The Reds had a below-average offense this year, and the losses of Adam Dunn and perhaps Jerry Hairston Jr. may make things worse. On the other hand, the Reds won't give 1,200 plate appearances to Keppinger, Corey Patterson, and Paul Bako again.
Top two positions of concern: shortstop and center field. After missing all of this season due to a knee compression fracture, can Gonzalez return to his '07 form? For lack of a better option, I have Freel penciled in at center. However, he's injury-prone and
already on thin ice


. Maybe
Drew Stubbs


deserves a look. Or the Reds could sign a
free agent


, maybe someone like Jim Edmonds (who can be useful if he doesn't face southpaws). Mark Kotsay could also work. A simpler solution, as many commenters below have noted, would be Dickerson in center and a free agent left fielder signed.
Encarnacion's defense at third base is not pretty. I would love to see Walt Jocketty make an aggressive offer for Adrian Beltre. I'll let you speculate on scenarios.

The Reds' rotation has a chance to be excellent next year without outside additions. Arroyo, Harang, and Cueto all posted ERAs above 4.60 in '08. However, Arroyo and Harang finished strong and Cueto was solid for a rookie. Throw in Volquez and a healthy Owings and the Reds could be tough one through five. Thompson and Bailey provide more depth than most teams can boast.

Bailey could be trade bait, perhaps offered to Texas for a catcher. But the Reds
intend to give Hanigan a shot


, and I like that plan. As for the excess cash, where to spend it? I don't see needs beyond a backup catcher and veteran center fielder. I suppose some dough can be spent to re-sign or replace Jeremy Affeldt as the go-to lefty. And maybe Hairston will re-up at a reasonable rate. But if I'm Walt Jocketty, I'm only tinkering in my first winter as Reds GM (aside from the Beltre idea). This team has sleeper potential.

Bill, did Paul Byrd sign with the Red Sox past this year? Isn't he a free agent? If so, I can see the Indians making an offer to get him back for a year or two.

Originally Posted by HD MM

Bill, did Paul Byrd sign with the Red Sox past this year? Isn't he a free agent? If so, I can see the Indians making an offer to get him back for a year or two.

Byrd is a free agent. I read somewhere that the Red Sox and Pirates are interested in signing him.

Originally Posted by BillD1984

Offseason Outlook: Cincinnati Reds

By Tim Dierkes

The Reds are next in our
Offseason Outlook series


. Their probable commitments for 2009:

C - Ryan Hanigan - $400K
C - Wilkin Castillo - $400K
1B - Joey Votto - $400K
2B - Brandon Phillips - $4.75MM
SS - Alex Gonzalez - $5.375MM
3B - Edwin Encarnacion - $450K+
IF - Andy Phillips - $440K
IF - Jeff Keppinger - $403K
LF - Chris Dickerson - $400K
CF - Ryan Freel - $4MM
RF - Jay Bruce - $400K
OF - Norris Hopper - $403K
OF -
SP - Aaron Harang - $11MM
SP - Bronson Arroyo - $9.5MM
SP - Edinson Volquez - $400K
SP - Johnny Cueto - $400K
SP - Micah Owings - $402K
RP - Francisco Cordero - $12MM
RP - Jared Burton - $400K
RP - Mike Lincoln - $550K+
RP - Bill Bray - $400K
RP - Gary Majewski - $400K+
RP - Ramon Ramirez - $400K
RP - Nick Masset - $400K
Non-tender candidates: Matt Belisle - $1.25MM+
Other commitments: Yonder Alonso - $400K
Rotation candidates: Daryl Thompson - $400K, Homer Bailey - $400K, Ramon Ramirez - $400K

The Reds have roughly $54.5MM committed before arbitration raises to Encarnacion, Lincoln, and Majewski. After that, they'll still be under $60MM (with a fifth of the payroll going to the closer). The Reds entered this season with a $74.1MM payroll, so they might have money to spend.
The Reds had a below-average offense this year, and the losses of Adam Dunn and perhaps Jerry Hairston Jr. may make things worse. On the other hand, the Reds won't give 1,200 plate appearances to Keppinger, Corey Patterson, and Paul Bako again.
Top two positions of concern: shortstop and center field. After missing all of this season due to a knee compression fracture, can Gonzalez return to his '07 form? For lack of a better option, I have Freel penciled in at center. However, he's injury-prone and
already on thin ice


. Maybe
Drew Stubbs


deserves a look. Or the Reds could sign a
free agent


, maybe someone like Jim Edmonds (who can be useful if he doesn't face southpaws). Mark Kotsay could also work. A simpler solution, as many commenters below have noted, would be Dickerson in center and a free agent left fielder signed.
Encarnacion's defense at third base is not pretty. I would love to see Walt Jocketty make an aggressive offer for Adrian Beltre. I'll let you speculate on scenarios.

The Reds' rotation has a chance to be excellent next year without outside additions. Arroyo, Harang, and Cueto all posted ERAs above 4.60 in '08. However, Arroyo and Harang finished strong and Cueto was solid for a rookie. Throw in Volquez and a healthy Owings and the Reds could be tough one through five. Thompson and Bailey provide more depth than most teams can boast.

Bailey could be trade bait, perhaps offered to Texas for a catcher. But the Reds
intend to give Hanigan a shot


, and I like that plan. As for the excess cash, where to spend it? I don't see needs beyond a backup catcher and veteran center fielder. I suppose some dough can be spent to re-sign or replace Jeremy Affeldt as the go-to lefty. And maybe Hairston will re-up at a reasonable rate. But if I'm Walt Jocketty, I'm only tinkering in my first winter as Reds GM (aside from the Beltre idea). This team has sleeper potential.

Keppinger should be the full-time shortstop. He has the skills and is a very good bat in the line-up. Before he got hurt last year he was batting over .300 and was still not 100% after the injury. After this winter he should be 100% and ready to go.

Fan favorite, Sal Fasano filed for free agency this morning.



Today, Tribe fans must bid adieu to one of baseball’s more popular characters. I say “character” thanks to the fact that Sal Fasano seems to be embody the more popular role for his facial hair than the bat he swings.

Donning the ever-popular Fu Manchu, Sal was with the Indians from June until season’s end. But while Fasano was more than serviceable after Victor Martinez suffered a myriad of early-season injuries, the fact that VMart and Kelly Shoppach are ahead of him on the roster leaves little reason for the Tribe to re-sign the veteran. A career .221 hitter, Fasano was in good spirits after filing for free agency.

“If it was up to me, I would have only played on one team, not 13,” he said with a laugh at the end of the season. “I should be getting at least 10 percent [pension] from every organization I’ve been with. Then I could retire.”

Sal Fasano is a man that Jeff Pearlman called a first-ballot Hall of Famer - if the only criteria would be “class and decency.” Spence Kyte hit it square on the head
with this blurb

in his Iron Ref bout on Hugging Harold Reynolds.

"All-Stars are not fan favourites, despite what the fan voting may lead you to believe. The true Fan Favourite is that special someone who reminds you of you and helps to convince yourself that if you had just been two inches taller, hadn’t quit Little League or could throw a spiral to save your life that maybe you too could have earned a living as a professional athlete."

"They’re the guys who could just as easily be your auto mechanic as a backup catcher, fourth line grinder or last man off the bench who dances like my Uncle Walt and that is why they’re our favourites."

A long post for a guy that had only a handful of at-bats with the Indians? Sure. But also one about a player that fans of baseball will be glad to root for, wherever he may end up.


So Long, Sal | WaitingForNextYear

Red Sox Rumors: Bay, Tazawa, Kawakami, Lugo

By Tim Dierkes [November 5 at 2:48pm CST]

Collecting today's Red Sox rumors and links...

• 
  Scott Boras believes
  
  
  Derek Lowe would be a good fit in Boston or New York.
  Nick Cafardo says
  
  
  Lowe would like to return to Boston, maybe even at a slight discount.
• 
  Jason Bay's agents say
  
  
  he's loving Boston and is open to a contract extension.
• When asked about the possibility of Manny Ramirez signing with the Yankees, Red Sox GM
  Theo Epstein basically said
  
  
  it's not his concern.
• Otherwise, the theme of Epstein's comments was flexibility. Justin Masterson could be a starter or reliever, and Epstein won't get hung up on acquiring any one player.
• 
  Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe
  
  
  says the Red Sox are heavily involved on Junichi Tazawa, though the Braves and Mariners are after him as well. The Sox also like Kenshin Kawakami and may have interest in Paul Byrd and Javier Vazquez.
• Cafardo believes the Mets and White Sox have interest in Julio Lugo. It would have to be a bad contract swap. Cafardo adds that the Red Sox view Jacoby Ellsbury as their starting center fielder, and there has been trade interest in Coco Crisp.
• Boston's luxury tax threshold for 2009 is $160.5MM.
• By tomorrow
  the Red Sox should receive
  
  
  the Jason Varitek book compiled by the Boras corporation. Boras gave a ridiculous Varitek pitch to the media; click the link for quotes. Epstein will meet with Boras today to discuss his clients.
• The Red Sox plan to talk to the Rangers, with Taylor Teagarden, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, and Gerald Laird as possibilities. For Teagarden, the Red Sox would probably have to give up Clay Buchholz or Michael Bowden.

Originally Posted by BillD1984

Red Sox Rumors: Bay, Tazawa, Kawakami, Lugo

By Tim Dierkes [November 5 at 2:48pm CST]

Collecting today's Red Sox rumors and links...

• 
  Scott Boras believes
  
  
  Derek Lowe would be a good fit in Boston or New York.
  Nick Cafardo says
  
  
  Lowe would like to return to Boston, maybe even at a slight discount.
• 
  Jason Bay's agents say
  
  
  he's loving Boston and is open to a contract extension.
• When asked about the possibility of Manny Ramirez signing with the Yankees, Red Sox GM
  Theo Epstein basically said
  
  
  it's not his concern.
• Otherwise, the theme of Epstein's comments was flexibility. Justin Masterson could be a starter or reliever, and Epstein won't get hung up on acquiring any one player.
• 
  Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe
  
  
  says the Red Sox are heavily involved on Junichi Tazawa, though the Braves and Mariners are after him as well. The Sox also like Kenshin Kawakami and may have interest in Paul Byrd and Javier Vazquez.
• Cafardo believes the Mets and White Sox have interest in Julio Lugo. It would have to be a bad contract swap. Cafardo adds that the Red Sox view Jacoby Ellsbury as their starting center fielder, and there has been trade interest in Coco Crisp.
• Boston's luxury tax threshold for 2009 is $160.5MM.
• By tomorrow
  the Red Sox should receive
  
  
  the Jason Varitek book compiled by the Boras corporation. Boras gave a ridiculous Varitek pitch to the media; click the link for quotes. Epstein will meet with Boras today to discuss his clients.
• The Red Sox plan to talk to the Rangers, with Taylor Teagarden, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, and Gerald Laird as possibilities. For Teagarden, the Red Sox would probably have to give up Clay Buchholz or Michael Bowden.

Bill,
OF COURSE Boras is going to say his clients would look good in NY or Boston, ALL of his clients would look good there, just ask him....

People interested in Coco Crisp, gee, he's been available for over 2 years now and no one picked him up, why now ?

Jimbo

Looks like the Dodgers Money Woes Continue.


FOX Sports on MSN - Ken Rosenthal - Dodgers decline .25M option on Penny