2008-09 MLB Hot Stove

**Jimbo** · 10-30-2008 10:55 PM

Originally Posted by BillD1984

Lowe is 35 and he's a native of Michigan.

Not only Michigan, but Dearborn, Mi (just outside of Detroit for those that don't know).
John Smoltz is also from the area, and available, always liked him, but getting up there in age.

I can see this is going to be one of those extremely LONG threads

Jimbo

**BillD1984** · 10-30-2008 10:58 PM

Here ya go, Mets:

Offseason Outlook: New York Mets

By Tim Dierkes

C - Brian Schneider - $4.9MM
C - Ramon Castro - $2.5MM
1B - Carlos Delgado - $12MM
2B - Luis Castillo - $6MM
SS - Jose Reyes - $5.75MM
3B - David Wright - $7.5MM
IF -
IF - Argenis Reyes - $400K
LF - Dan Murphy - $400K
CF - Carlos Beltran - $18.5MM
RF - Ryan Church - $2MM+
OF - Endy Chavez - $2.05MM
OF - Marlon Anderson - $1.15MM
SP - Johan Santana - $20MM
SP - Mike Pelfrey - $1.3125MM
SP - John Maine - $450K+
SP - Jon Niese - $400K
SP - Bobby Parnell - $400K
RP - Scott Schoeneweis - $3.6MM
RP - Aaron Heilman - $1.2MM+
RP - Pedro Feliciano - $1.025MM+
RP - Duaner Sanchez - $850K+
RP - Brian Stokes - $402K
RP - Joe Smith - $400K
RP - Eddie Kunz - $400K
Other commitments: Billy Wagner - $10.5MM
That's around $104MM committed before arbitration raises to Church, Maine, Heilman, Feliciano, and Sanchez. Some of those relievers may be gone, but we'll put the Mets around $110MM after the raises. They entered 2008 near $138MM, so Omar Minaya could have almost $30MM to spend.
Revamping the bullpen is top priority; we discussed some options
here

. A commenter on that post made a good point - maybe the Mets can't afford to take the ideal approach to building a bullpen. Overpaying for the sure thing would be justifiable. I'd still sign Brian Fuentes over Francisco Rodriguez though. Fuentes may cost half as much overall while providing a similar performance.
The Mets also need to acquire one starting pitcher. A Randy Wolf type could work, or they could spend additional money for Derek Lowe or A.J. Burnett. Bartolo Colon and Freddy Garcia could also be appealing. With one reliable addition, it'll be a solid rotation.
Murphy
provides flexibility

- he could be the starting left fielder, he could play first in the event of a Delgado exercise n' trade, or he could replace Castillo at second. It wouldn't be surprising to see the Mets go after Raul Ibanez or Juan Rivera, the somewhat reasonable free agent options at left field. I don't see them getting into the Dunn/Burrell/Manny price range, but you never know.
Castillo is a problem, though I don't think it's imperative the Mets get rid of him. It was a bad signing from Day 1, and Castillo pretty much performed as expected in 2008 (decent OBP, no power, questionable defense, injury issues). That is Luis Castillo and it was a year ago. I suppose you could say his defense was even worse than expected and he missed more time than usual. Maybe he can bounce back next year. I wouldn't assume most of his remaining $18MM just to get Castillo off the roster, but I would entertain swapping him for another bad contract. Heilman is another player who might be trade bait, and he probably has some positive value.
The Mets have an excellent core for '09 - three good starting pitchers plus Wright, Reyes, Beltran, and Delgado all signed at arguably below-market rates. Minaya just needs to figure out how to allocate his money between a closer (and maybe a second reliever), a starter, and a left fielder.

**Mets82** · 10-30-2008 11:16 PM

Thank you, Bill. Your the man. Yeah, it will probably be Fuentes, Lowe and someone else. As far as the relief pitchers, I'll be honest, I can't see any of them coming back. Feliciano and Sanchez have been lousy but I really don't know if one or both are coming back. As far as Heilman, I think he's 95% gone. I really think so. He burned too many bridges and maybe a change of scenery will help him.

**SabresRule** · 10-30-2008 11:17 PM

Over/Under:

67 million dollars for Sabathia's contract?

**Jimbo** · 10-30-2008 11:32 PM

Originally Posted by BillD1984

Here ya go, Jimbo:

Offseason Outlook: Detroit Tigers

By Tim Dierkes

Here's what they have for 2009:

C - Brandon Inge - $6.3MM
C - Dusty Ryan - $400K
1B - Miguel Cabrera - $15MM
2B - Placido Polanco - $4.6MM
SS - Ramon Santiago - $575K+
3B - Carlos Guillen - $10MM
IF - Michael Hollimon - $400K
IF/OF - Ryan Raburn - $400K
LF - Matt Joyce - $400K
CF - Curtis Granderson - $3.5MM
RF - Magglio Ordonez - $18MM
OF - Marcus Thames - $1.275MM+
DH - Gary Sheffield - $14MM
SP - Justin Verlander - $500K+
SP - Jeremy Bonderman - $12.5MM
SP - Armando Galarraga - $400K
SP - Zach Miner - $410K
SP - Nate Robertson - $7MM
RP - Fernando Rodney - $1.7MM+
RP - Gary Glover - $1.075MM+
RP - Bobby Seay - $780K+
RP - Joel Zumaya - $420K+
RP - Aquilino Lopez - $400K
RP - Clay Rapada - $400K
RP - Freddy Dolsi - $400K
Other commitments: Edgar Renteria - $3MM buyout, Rick Porcello - $1.2MM, Dontrelle Willis - $10MM
The Tigers have about $115MM committed for 2009, not including arbitration raises to Santiago, Thames, Rodney, Glover, Seay, Zumaya, and Verlander. So, they should be over $120MM with the current group. The Tigers had an opening day payroll of $137.7MM in 2008.
Lynn Henning says

to expect a drastic payroll reduction - "perhaps by $40 million or more."
As Henning notes, the Tigers may need to trade Ordonez to slice payroll down to the $100MM range. Maggs is the team's highest-paid player, and he has a fine .892 OPS. Ordonez essentially comes with a three-year, $48MM contract. Certain teams might find that contract acceptable, but not if the price also includes quality young players. The Braves might be a good match if the Tigers are mainly looking for salary relief.
No team would assume the contracts of Sheffield, Robertson, or Willis, so there's no point in trading them. Polanco, Bonderman, and Thames probably have trade value, but the Tigers don't necessarily have ready replacements.
Even if the Tigers move Ordonez's contract, they won't have much left over for free agents. It's hard to picture marquee free agents like Francisco Rodriguez, C.C. Sabathia, or Rafael Furcal being considered if Henning's report is accurate. They might be able to dig around the bargain bin, re-upping Freddy Garcia and adding a nondescript veteran reliever.
The Tigers can contend in 2009, but it'll probably require comebacks from current players such as Bonderman, Willis, Verlander, Robertson, Sheffield, Rodney, and Zumaya. The Tigers have one blue-chip prospect in Rick Porcello, who might be able to contribute in the second half.

Here's what I expect to happen:
1st of all, they better NOT trade Ordonez, they would be NUTS to do that. He's a good quality hitter, they need them.....

They need a real SS and a Catcher, I think Saltmachia would do ..

Inge moves to third, no longer the catcher, maybe as a backup occasionally, he belongs there.
They need to sign a catcher and have Ryan back him up.
1b. Cabrera isn't going anywhere ..... period
2B Palonco, stays and hopefully bounces back from an off year for him, I think he will.
SS, they NEED one, Santiago can do well as a back up he can play both SS and 2B, or if they cannot find one reasonably, Rentaria is gone, I hope.

3B. Inge, Guillen moves to DH and back up at 1B and 3B, he's a proffesional hitter, has bad knees that took him from playing his stellar SS

IF/OF Rayburn sticks, he's the perfect play everywhere guy. Much like Inge was in earlier years.

Holliman, I don't know enough about him yet, too soon to tell.
OF Joyce / Thames, platoon LF if Thames is still here, I like him, avg D, HR power, very streaky hitter, can carry team for a week if needed. DH the other.

RF. Ordonez, stays, does NOT go anywhere ..... Very reliable bat (we need them), not the big K guy you might think he was. Led league in batting in '06 - .350 +, last year, followed it up hitting .320+ ...

Pitching ..................................
Thats a long story.

Verlander # 1, hopefully he bounces back, he's way to good to not, I think he pitched injured for stretches this year.

Galarraga, he was our BEST pitcher last year, lets hope he has found a home and continues his good fortune

Bonderman needs to get his head on straight and have a above avg year .... He MAY be gone over the winter.

Robertson : Put up this year or your gone, great stretches, lots of avg and below.
Could also be gone if the Tigers find a pitcher they need bad enough.

Minor: He will stick around, possibly bouncing from starter to bullpen again, he comes cheap and does a decent job.

Last year for Rodney and Zumaya if they don't perform ( Z case is staying healthy mostly)

Bobby Seay stays as does Dolsi, and Lopez and Rapada, any could be packaged for other players.

Rick Potcello, goes to the Starting Rotation I think.
Theyre was rumor that Zumaya may go to the Rotation too earlier.

Willis, I think the Tigers will try to have him pitch this year and see what happens, if it's good, hell stay, if not, hell be gone, maybe released.

SHEFFIELD will be GONE I think, we have plenty of DH's, I liked Sheff when he was healthy, unfotunatly it was not often enough, maybe he can go back to the Yankees ...

The Tigers will once again, fill in off the scrap heap in many places.

They can save 14 Mil from Shef and 3 from Renteria and I'm sure there are other areas, but I'm not going to go thru and figure who goes and who stays according to the payroll, you also have to determine who stays as you get rid of people.
I think Sheff is signed thru this year (09) , but doubt that he will stay.
He came into the year last year stating that he was healthy, but he wasn't or wasn't for long ... I no longer count on him at this time.

**Jimbo** · 10-30-2008 11:34 PM

Originally Posted by SabresRule

Over/Under:

67 million dollars for Sabathia's contract?

How many years ?

**Ramy** · 10-31-2008 11:08 AM

Originally Posted by BillD1984

Ramy,
what's the status of Bronson Arroyo?

Is he under contract in 2009?

I think he is for a couple more years and Harang too.

**JonE** · 10-31-2008 11:27 AM

Just read a rumor about Ian Kennedy from the Yankees to the Rockies in return for Willy Taveras. It would get a pretty good starting pitcher out of New York and all the pressure that implies, and the Yanks would get a pretty good young center fielder that can score runs and get the offense rolling.

It would probably put the Rockies back in the thick of it in the NL West which is THE weakest division in baseball.

**Paul Wozniak** · 10-31-2008 11:47 AM

Originally Posted by Paul Wozniak

I can see Lowe in a Detroit uniform next season, to replace Rogers.

Originally Posted by BillD1984

Jimbo,

IMO, Derek Lowe would be a good fit for the Tigers.

Apparently we both think so.

**Paul Wozniak** · 10-31-2008 12:04 PM

Originally Posted by Jimbo

Here's what I expect to happen:
1st of all, they better NOT trade Ordonez, they would be NUTS to do that. He's a good quality hitter, they need them.....

They need a real SS and a Catcher, I think Saltmachia would do ..

Inge moves to third, no longer the catcher, maybe as a backup occasionally, he belongs there.
They need to sign a catcher and have Ryan back him up.
1b. Cabrera isn't going anywhere ..... period
2B Palonco, stays and hopefully bounces back from an off year for him, I think he will.
SS, they NEED one, Santiago can do well as a back up he can play both SS and 2B, or if they cannot find one reasonably, Rentaria is gone, I hope.

3B. Inge, Guillen moves to DH and back up at 1B and 3B, he's a proffesional hitter, has bad knees that took him from playing his stellar SS

IF/OF Rayburn sticks, he's the perfect play everywhere guy. Much like Inge was in earlier years.

Holliman, I don't know enough about him yet, too soon to tell.
OF Joyce / Thames, platoon LF if Thames is still here, I like him, avg D, HR power, very streaky hitter, can carry team for a week if needed. DH the other.

RF. Ordonez, stays, does NOT go anywhere ..... Very reliable bat (we need them), not the big K guy you might think he was. Led league in batting in '06 - .350 +, last year, followed it up hitting .320+ ...

Pitching ..................................
Thats a long story.

Verlander # 1, hopefully he bounces back, he's way to good to not, I think he pitched injured for stretches this year.

Galarraga, he was our BEST pitcher last year, lets hope he has found a home and continues his good fortune

Bonderman needs to get his head on straight and have a above avg year .... He MAY be gone over the winter.

Robertson : Put up this year or your gone, great stretches, lots of avg and below.
Could also be gone if the Tigers find a pitcher they need bad enough.

Minor: He will stick around, possibly bouncing from starter to bullpen again, he comes cheap and does a decent job.

Last year for Rodney and Zumaya if they don't perform ( Z case is staying healthy mostly)

Bobby Seay stays as does Dolsi, and Lopez and Rapada, any could be packaged for other players.

Rick Potcello, goes to the Starting Rotation I think.
Theyre was rumor that Zumaya may go to the Rotation too earlier.

Willis, I think the Tigers will try to have him pitch this year and see what happens, if it's good, hell stay, if not, hell be gone, maybe released.

SHEFFIELD will be GONE I think, we have plenty of DH's, I liked Sheff when he was healthy, unfotunatly it was not often enough, maybe he can go back to the Yankees ...

The Tigers will once again, fill in off the scrap heap in many places.

They can save 14 Mil from Shef and 3 from Renteria and I'm sure there are other areas, but I'm not going to go thru and figure who goes and who stays according to the payroll, you also have to determine who stays as you get rid of people.
I think Sheff is signed thru this year (09) , but doubt that he will stay.
He came into the year last year stating that he was healthy, but he wasn't or wasn't for long ... I no longer count on him at this time.

#1 - Leyland has already stated this, and I reiterated this in my final grades.

#2 - Renteria was released yesterday. Also, the Tigers resigned the bullpen coach they fired at the season's end. Go figure.

#3 - Guillen is moving to LF, Leyland has said so, something I stated in the final grades also.

#4 - Ordonez is not going anywhere, not many takers for $17M+ contract. Besides who fills that hole in the line up. If Tampa Bay is willing to part ways with one of those young studs in their rotation....maybe.

#5 - Porcello not likely to be in the starting rotation next spring, unless he is absolutely "lights out" in training camp.

#6 - Sheffield is indeed signed through '09. Just hope that he has one more year of pop in that bat (I doubt it.), because nobody is taking on that contract without the Tigers eating some of it.

SS and Catcher remain the Tigers top priorities. Look for some minor changes to the relief staff. Mostly, I think they will looking for the pitching staff to rebound. Still plenty of talent there, they just need to put it together again, like '06. I don't see any major splashes in the FA market because of high the payroll already is. But then I didn't see the Cabrera trade coming last winter either.