Thread: 2009-10 Hot Stove Baseball

Offseason Outlook: Chicago Cubs

By Tim Dierkes [October 21 at 11:32am CST]
Next up in our
Offseason Outlook series

, the Cubs. Their likely 2010 commitments:
C - Geovany Soto - $575K
C - Koyie Hill - $475K+
1B - Derrek Lee - $13MM
2B - Jeff Baker - $415K+
SS - Ryan Theriot - $500K+
3B - Aramis Ramirez - $15.75MM
IF - Aaron Miles - $2.7MM
IF - Andres Blanco - $400K
LF - Alfonso Soriano - $18MM
CF - Kosuke Fukudome - $13MM
RF - Milton Bradley - $9MM
OF - Sam Fuld - $402K
3B/OF - Jake Fox - $402K
SP - Carlos Zambrano - $17.875MM
SP - Ryan Dempster - $12.5MM
SP - Ted Lilly - $12MM
SP - Randy Wells - $402K
SP - Tom Gorzelanny - $433K+
RP - Aaron Heilman - $1.625MM+
RP - Carlos Marmol - $575K+
RP - Sean Marshall - $450K+
RP - Angel Guzman - $422K+
RP - Esmailin Caridad - $400K
RP - Jeff Stevens - $400K
RP - Jeff Samardzija - $2.5MM
Non-tender candidates: Aaron Heilman, Neal Cotts, Mike Fontenot
The Cubs have about $124.2MM committed before arbitration raises to Hill, Baker, Theriot, Heilman, Marmol, Marshall, Guzman, and Gorzelanny. Fontenot, at two years and 139 days of service time, is on the bubble for Super Two status (which could influence his 2010 status with the team). Heilman, Cotts, and Fontenot are candidates to be non-tendered. With at least seven arb cases, there is payroll uncertainty, but I'll put the Cubs around $135MM committed. The Cubs entered 2009 with a payroll right around that mark, according to
Cot's Baseball Contracts

. The Cubs have new ownership for 2010, and their payroll plans are not yet known.
The Cubs seem dead-set on moving Bradley and finding someone else to play right or center field. A player they loved a year ago, they hate now. Bradley had a slow start and finish, showed little power, and had issues with the fans, media, and manager. Still, he posted a .378 OBP in the off-year and certainly could improve upon that in 2010. My advice: work it out, rather than eating $15MM+ or taking on a different bad contract. Bradley is not the reason the Cubs received over 2,000 plate appearances of subpar hitting from Soriano, Fontenot, Soto, Hill, Hoffpauir, and Miles, nor is he the reason Ramirez was limited to 342 PAs due to a shoulder injury.
With proper conditioning, Soto should bounce back. Baker can't do worse than the other Cubs' second basemen did in '09. Ramirez's shoulder is worrisome, but the Cubs must hope for good health. Soriano finished the season with knee surgery and will presumably be healthy for Spring Training. His contract is so absurd that the team has no flexibility. In all likelihood the Cubs will replace Bradley, but it is the holdovers who need to improve. It would be a shame to see new hitting coach Rudy Jaramillo encourage aggression from the hitters, as it was patience that led to the team's NL-best .354 OBP in 2008.
The rotation looks strong, with the front four locked in. Gorzelanny, Marshall, or Samardzija will probably fill the fifth starter role.
As for the bullpen, the Cubs seem willing to spend good money on John Grabow, perhaps not the best idea (5.0 BB/9). Heilman could be non-tendered. Marmol is the de facto closer, despite 65 walks in 74 innings. Adding a Billy Wagner type makes sense, if payroll allows. Guzman is interesting if he can stay healthy, while Caridad is a sleeper.
The Cubs are a pricey team with room for little more than tinkering. GM Jim Hendry will need to push the right buttons this winter after a 2008-09 offseason filled with miscalculations.

Anyone know how many of the Reds players are free agents?

Originally Posted by ramy

Anyone know how many of the Reds players are free agents?

Offseason Outlook: Cincinnati Reds

By Tim Dierkes
Next up in our
Offseason Outlook series

, the Reds. Their likely commitments for 2010:
C - Ryan Hanigan - $400K
C - Corky Miller - $450K+
1B - Joey Votto - $438K
2B - Brandon Phillips - $6.75MM
SS - Paul Janish - $400K
3B - Scott Rolen - $11MM
IF - Drew Sutton - $400K
LF - Jonny Gomes - $600K+
CF - Drew Stubbs - $400K
RF - Jay Bruce - $418K
OF - Willy Taveras - $4MM
OF - Laynce Nix - $600K+
OF - Chris Dickerson - $400K
SP - Aaron Harang - $12.5MM
SP - Bronson Arroyo - $11MM
SP - Johnny Cueto - $418K
SP - Homer Bailey - $401K
SP - Justin Lehr - $400K
Other candidates: Matt Maloney, Micah Owings
RP - Francisco Cordero - $12MM
RP - Arthur Rhodes - $2MM
RP - Nick Masset - $418K+
RP - Mike Lincoln - $2.5MM
RP - Jared Burton - $420K+
RP - Micah Owings - $420K+
RP - Danny Herrera - $400K
Other commitments: Ramon Hernandez - $1MM buyout
Non-tender candidates: Corky Miller, Bill Bray, Laynce Nix
The Reds have about $70MM committed before arbitration raises to Miller, Gomes, Nix, Masset, Burton, and Owings. We'll allocate another $5MM for those raises, puting the team in the $75MM range. The Reds were at $73.6MM heading into the season,
according to Cot's Baseball Contracts

. Given the lack of payroll space, it's no surprise GM Walt Jocketty told
MLB.com's Mark Sheldon


his interest in free agents will be minimal this offseason.
The Reds should have a strong defensive infield in 2010, especially if they decide Janish's glovework makes up for his poor hitting.
Between Stubbs and Dickerson, the Reds should have a workable internal solution for center field that does not involve giving 400+ plate appearances to Taveras. Replacing Taveras and getting more out of Bruce and Rolen seems to be the easiest route to an improved offense in 2010.

Jocketty has spoken of his desire


to add a "quality RBI man" despite the lack of payroll space. Non-tendering Gomes would make little sense, as he could be that RBI man for a few million bucks (Gomes slugged .541 this year).
Jocketty could also free up cash by trading Harang or Arroyo. A team like the Mets might be interested in assuming one of those contracts if the demand for players is minimal. But it's hard to see how that would improve the Reds, who are not in a position to subtract a starter now that Edinson Volquez is unlikely to contribute in 2010 (Tommy John surgery). The best rotation addition for the buck is probably free agent pitching coach Dave Duncan, but
his inclination is to stay in St. Louis


.
One pitcher Jocketty could afford to trade is Cordero, given Masset's success in 2009. The Reds' closer has two years and $25MM remaining. The problem is that the Reds would have to assume half his contract to make Cordero mildly appealing.
Jocketty overspent on Taveras and Lincoln a year ago, committing $10.25MM to the pair. Add that to the $11MM the Reds GM took on for Rolen next year, and it's clear the Reds don't have much flexibility this winter. Improvements will have to come from within.

Originally Posted by BillD1984

The Reds have about $70MM committed before arbitration raises to Miller, Gomes, Nix, Masset, Burton, and Owings. We'll allocate another $5MM for those raises, puting the team in the $75MM range. The Reds were at $73.6MM heading into the season, .

IF the Marlins would have "allocated" $75 million to this years team....I am willing to bet they would have been STILL in the playoffs! LOL!

Originally Posted by salsadancer7

IF the Marlins would have "allocated" $75 million to this years team....I am willing to bet they would have been STILL in the playoffs! LOL!

The Marlins did quite well considering their $2 million payroll...


Sandra

Tribe tabs Acta to be new manager | MLB.com: News

...and he thought managing the Nationals was rough.

Originally Posted by KCK_Halo

Tribe tabs Acta to be new manager | MLB.com: News

...and he thought managing the Nationals was rough.

I'm very surprised that the Indians decided to hire him.

So much for my Reds getting La Russa:


La Russa likely to manage Cards in '10

Announcement of veteran's return expected Monday


Tony La Russa appears to be coming back for a 15th season to manage the Cardinals. The team has called a news conference for Monday at 11 a.m. CT at Busch Stadium. A change on La Russa's coaching staff may indicate that his return is in fact imminent. Multiple reports have indicated that Hal McRae is out as the team's hitting coach and will be replaced by
Mark McGwire

, and a source confirmed those reports to MLB.com on Sunday afternoon. Moreover, former player Brian McRae, the son of Hal McRae, wrote on his Twitter account that it "looks like the Cards will hire McGwire."

More.....

La Russa likely to manage Cards in '10 | stlcardinals.com: News

Apparently Houston wanted Acta too.

Houston Chronicle’s baseball expert Richard Justice said this morning that yesterday was a bad, bad day for the Astros, allowing the Indians to steal Acta from them....

Manny Acta was the guy they wanted. The Astros liked everything about him. His presence and personality. How he forged relationships with players. His ability to run a game.

Astros have a very bad day, and that's being kind | SportsJustice | Chron.com - Houston Chronicle