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06-14-2007 10:08 PM #1
Sony: the format war has just begun
This is a different stance from claiming that they already won the format war.
I guess they are seeing the writing on the wall.
The Utility Belt: Blu-ray vs. HD DVD: Sony says the war has just begun
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06-18-2007 07:33 PM #2
I'll preface this post with a note that I own Neither BluRay nor HD DVD. The biggest reason is I don't want to buy an outdated/orphaned format.
With that said, Blockbuster's Announcement today was a MAJOR Blow to HD DVD, (all 1450 Stores to exclusively to stock BluRay, except for 250 test market stores already carrying HD DVD, no NEW Stores will carry HD DVD). This is likely the beginning of the end for HD DVD. Blockbuster is the largest and biggest heavy weight in the Movie Rental business. With this announcement you will likely see more competitors jump into Next Gen Movie Rentals, and few will foot the bill for a dual format war especially since most content will be available on BluRay, with Blockbuster picking BluRay its highly likely their competitors will pick the same format that Blockbuster did.
Since all but one studio is releasing Next Gen discs on Bluray, and the largest Rental business chooses to carry "ONLY" BluRay, HD DVD is likely at the end of its rope. All the cheap players in the world is not going to swing the bar back. Content is "KING" I WOULDN'T buy a player for its price or its Look. I would buy a player to actually play movies that I want to watch. With 75% to 80% of all Content to be available on BluRay, why buy a HD DVD player.
With Blockbusters' announcement, it is likely to press Universal to blink and start to release content on BluRay to get into Blockbuster nationwide. If that happens then HD DVD is DONE completely. 1450 stores buying multiple copies of new releases is ALOT of Disc's, and alot more than the number of discs that are actually being bought to go directly into the HOME to stay. Besides, if JOE SIX PACK goes into the Blockbuster and only sees BluRay discs, and then decides to get a Next Gen Player to go with that HD TV they just purchased 2-12 months ago, then they are going to go ask for a BluRay Disc player at the local Consumer Electronics Store.
I understand your devotion to HD DVD, but looking at the facts and recent business decisions it is more and more apparent every day that HD DVD is likely to lose the Next Gen War, unless something unprecedented happens and SOON.
06-18-2007 07:38 PM #3Supporting Founder
The early bird gets the worm, but the 2nd mouse gets the cheese.
06-18-2007 09:09 PM #4
It doesn't NOT matter what you think Joe Six Pack might or might NOT do. The point is that image is everything.
Go into a Best Buy or almost any Consumer Electronics store and you see BluRay front and center. Soon you will go into Blockbuster and likely other Rental stores and see only BluRay, or IF both HD DVD and BluRay are available you'll notice that BluRay titles dwarf the number of HD DVD titles.
Again CONTENT sells electronics players and not the other way around. Sony lost the VHS/BETA war with the BETAMAX for the same reasons that Toshiba is now losing this Netxt Gen war. JVC locked more studios and content into VHS marketing, hence BETA/SONY lost even though their Player was better than VHS, also the BETA had significantly less storage than VHS. SOUND familiar?
Sony learned from these mistakes and has hedge their bets, by locking in superior marketing support, and MUCH MORE content. With that and more and more deals coming for BluRay marketing and support, BluRay is on a roll that is not likely to abate.
I went through this similar argument several years ago about VOOM, then a HD only DBS service trying to compete for subscribers with Cable, Dish Network, and DirecTV. All the way to the end the FEW vocal VOOM supporters/Subscribers refused to see the writing on the wall. In the end VOOM shutdown its DBS service only to sell off all their Uplink center(s) and In-Orbit hardware to Dish Network, and then sign a deal for Dish to distribute their exclusive VOOM content on Dish Network.
All the way to the end those Voom Subs refused to see or admit their service and hardware was doomed to obsolescence.
To Finish my post, I really do NOT care whom wins only that one format does win and VERY SOON. Without one format, Next Gen Content is doomed to also ran standing. With the current sales of Content, player installed base, Content availability, retail Marketing, its very Clear that BluRay is WELL AHEAD, and that HD DVD is losing more ground. Doesn't sound like HD DVD has much of a chance.
I have been wrong before, but most of my investing and market analysis has been on the money, and personally I would BET REAL BIG on Sony at this point. Unless HD DVD pulls out a near Miracle and SOON they are going to LOSE.
06-19-2007 03:00 AM #5
06-20-2007 01:10 PM #6Playing XBox360/Supporter
as far as the hardware, They have one endcap on an aisle dedicated to each.
I haven't set foot in a Blockbuster in 5 years so it doesn't affect me, although I am curious as to how they will handle the Weinstein product since they only do DVD and HD DVD.
I'm sure there was some backroom deal by Sony or Fox to cut some deal advantageous to Blockbuster to get them to take this stance. Whatever pain this causes the HD DVD camp, 2 million HD DVD players at $200 hitting Walmart in the 3rd abnd 4th quarter should counterbalance it.
It's all posturing at this point. Some are trying a little too hard to call the war before it is over. Hanging the Mission Accomplished banner is a little premature, right now....Are we there yet?