Math Part III
Let's have a look at the first table from here
DVD Entertainment Group
Year___DVD($)___DVD+VHS($)___ Ratio (%)____________Year (BD)
***************************************************
1999___0.80_____ 12.80_____________6_________1______2007
2000___2.50______14.00____________18_________3______2008
2001___6.80______16.80____________40________6.7_____2009
2002___11.6______20.30____________57________9.5_____2010
2003___16.1______22.50____________72_______11.9_____2011
2004___21.2______24.50____________87_______14.4_____2012
2005___22.8______24.30____________94_______15.6_____2013
The first three columns were taken from the linked document, the ratio was calculated:
what percent of the total movie purshases (DVD+VHS) was spent on DVDs.
We were told many times that the replacement of VHS by DVDs was a classic example of how a new format takes over an old one. From the table, it took 7 years to completely reverse the picture: DVDs were just 6% of customer spending in 1999 and 94% (leaving 6% to VHS) in 2005. This is the best case scenario for a new format aceptance "speed" - no format war, everybody sees huge improvements in picture/sound quality, no new TVs needed, no investment in new AVR/speakers needed, etc.
The year 1999 was the second year of DVD. Just like year 2007 was for high definition. And in terms of spending, it was 1% of the regular DVD spending: we are applying the same dynamics to the process of hidef (BD as of now) taking over DVD as DVD was taking over VHS. The last two columns (in red) show what percent of movies will be sold on BD (compared to regular DVDs) over the next few years.
As we established earlier, by 2010 BD will have about 10% of the movie market: same result, different approach.
Diogen.