"Will He Or Won't He?" © SKYReport 02/28/

bradley

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© SKYReport 2005

Sunday, February 27, 2005

SkyBOX: Lone Wolf Alert
by Evie Haskell evie@Mediabiz.com


WILL HE OR WON'T HE?

Today's the day we find out (or, at least, we should) and whichever way the news goes, the results are likely to be the stuff of both family soap opera and business thriller.

(And no, I don't mean the Oscars ... especially if you fell asleep as early as I did last night).

I'm talking, of course, about the fate of VOOM, the so-far ill-starred HD DBS venture started by cable TV pioneer Chuck Dolan. Mr. Dolan is also chairman of the No. 6 MSO, Cablevision, and the saga of VOOM could have a great deal to do with the future of cable to say nothing of DBS. If you will recall your news from just a few weeks ago, the Cablevision board voted with Mr. Dolan's son, James, and against the CVC founder to jettison VOOM, which has cost the company heavily over the past few years. VOOM's satellite went to EchoStar (which needs it) for $200 million in cash. That left the DBS service's estimated 26,000 subscribers and its slate of HD programming behind. In a play worthy of Tom Wolfe, Dolan and son Tom struck back, offering to buy the remaining VOOM assets (and assume its debts) with intentions of keeping the company alive via leased satellite.

Just one catch: How to pay for said assets. The obvious answer? Sell Cablevision, which is arguably one of the best performing cable companies with a rich cluster of systems in the New York metropolitan area.

Today, Feb. 28, is the put-up-or-shut-up day. Mr. Dolan, who has long been regarded as a lone-wolf in multiplatform circles, must come up with a financing plan. Or the Cablevision board will likely toss VOOM into a yard sale. (Unless, of course, the board grants an extension, not exactly an unknown circumstance in business.)

Let's suppose that Mr. Dolan succeeds in a financing plan - and that plan calls for the sale of the cable co. Such a scenario would bring potential suitors slavering to the plate, most notably Time Warner which controls the Manhattan system smack in the middle of Cablevision territory. Of course Cablevision won't come cheap, which means the No. 2 MSO would likely abandon any major participation in the bid for Adelphia systems, leaving the No. 1 MSO, Comcast (an Adelphia co-bidder) in the lurch --- or needing its own new financing for another big grab (or, perhaps, better participation from the smaller companies circling the prize). Then again, Comcast would probably also like to get its hands on Cablevision systems and programming assets, which in turn could drive a wedge in the Comcast/Time Warner "we'll decide what's best for the industry" partnership.

Or let's say that the elder Mr. Dolan does not come up with the requisite financing plan. Will Cablevision be able to sell those VOOM subscribers? (Don't forget, these are distinctly high-end households, given the cost of both VOOM and HD enabled TVs. Would DirecTV be willing to pay for them? Would DISH?) Will the VOOM (actually Cablevision's Rainbow Media's) HD channels also go on the block? If so, guess who is trying to shore up their programming assets? (Maybe someone in Philadelphia?)

Whatever happens, the spin-off effects could be explosive. And it all gets underway today.

Do you have a comment or letter for SkyBOX? Write the editors at: editor@skyreport.com. Please note, your comments may be used for our Web site.

http://www.skyreport.com
 
Even bigger problem...

One question I've not seen answered by anyone around here or anywhere else is how they would gain new subs. Let's just say someone is crazy enough to invest more money into Voom or Dolan is crazy enough to sell off his CVC stock, what next? How do they gain enough subs to keep going? Give it away? Well, they've been doing exactly that for over a year now. What else is there???

If I were looking to invest in Voom that would be my #1 question. Without more subs they cannot survive.

The Rickster
 
I just got a new voom newsletter talking about the transition...

To all our potential VOOM customers,
We are pleased to inform you that a new company, VOOM HD, LLC, has signed a letter of intent with VOOM's current corporate owner to purchase the VOOM service and continue providing you with our state-of-the-art service, supported by the existing VOOM management team. What this means to you, our potential customers, is a continued focus on having the most HD programming in the marketplace and the best overall TV experience money can buy.
Over the past several weeks, we have heard from many of you about your enthusiasm for VOOM, which was an important factor in helping us start the next chapter for VOOM. This is what some of you have told us recently:
"VOOM is the best thing that ever happened in our house on our HDTV."
"With VOOM, High Definition Television became a reality: from watching just a few premium HD channels we suddenly jumped to watching HD almost exclusively."
"Your service is far superior to any others that I've had in the past with programming that is and will always be unmatched."
"Thank you for bringing me a clearly superior choice in HD programming. There simply is no other logical choice for HDTV viewers."
We invite you to sign up for VOOM and expect that you will be as delighted as our current customners are about VOOM. Moving forward, VOOM remains committed to providing the broadest and best quality of HD programming available. Watch carefully the next few months. We have some exciting things coming soon!
 
The Stone Man said:
Sometimes I wonder who proofreads these things. Last paragraph...customners?

I don't think spelling is the issue, with the release: do you?
 
Lots of speculation with little substance... in the skyreport article... anyone here could have written it. When are these sources going to stop repeating the same that they here on the bulletin boards and give us some NEW information.
 
Kentstater72 said:
The stock market likes whatever is happening today.

As of 11:36am

CVC 31.47 +1.29

Why worry about the Stock market?. let's worry about " VOOM" let's keep it up and to the heck with the Stock Market:
 
GadgetRick said:
One question I've not seen answered by anyone around here or anywhere else is how they would gain new subs. Let's just say someone is crazy enough to invest more money into Voom or Dolan is crazy enough to sell off his CVC stock, what next? How do they gain enough subs to keep going? Give it away? Well, they've been doing exactly that for over a year now. What else is there???

If I were looking to invest in Voom that would be my #1 question. Without more subs they cannot survive.

The Rickster

Of course you are right, getting new subscribers is all that can make VOOM a success. All of the money lost in the last year will become irrelevant and a plan for the company to move forward and become profitable based on what is being done now and in the future is all that is relevant. I don't know the plan and don't know what subscriber number is necessary for VOOM to be profitable. My guess is the number of subscribers to break-even is somewhere between 2 and 5 million which is obviously a wide range, I don't have any idea what the number is. Getting financing to move forward is necessary and then we should see what the plan may be. It isn't going to be easy, that much is clear.

A goal of a half million subscribers in the next year is probably close to what we should see. That would be a start and ultimate success possible in a few years at that rate.

Chris
 

New Software version 7.37

Anyone else notice voom pulled ia press release ?

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