Sunday Ticket BYE, BYE?

Bruce · Nov 5, 2018

Today it was reported by The Sports Business Journal that the NFL is researching dropping DIRECTV’s NFL Sunday Ticket in favor of a streaming option. Initially, the NFL had until this fall to decide to stick with DIRECTV’s Sunday Ticket through the 2022 season now through AT&T, and the NFL have agreed to push that deadline off until the spring of 2019.

According to reports NFL and AT&T, the owner of DirecTV, quietly agreed over the summer to move back the league’s option to end the deal early from this fall to next spring. As part of that agreement, the league allowed DIRECTV NOW to stream Sunday Ticket in seven markets: Boston, Hartford, Los Angeles, Louisville, Philadelphia, Phoenix and San Antonio as test markets, said a source familiar with the deal. (You do need a DIRECTV NOW subscription to get the streaming version of NFL Sunday Ticket in these markets.)

With The Growth of Cord Cutting, The NFL is Considering Ditching Sunday Ticket For a Direct to Consumer Streaming Service - Cord Cutters News

jcrandall · Nov 5, 2018

One has to wonder if Directv agreeing to a test this season in 7 markets, and then not advertising it in any specific way, is an attempt to show lack of interest on streaming?
Sounds like it is an add-on for DirecTV Now in the 7 select markets only, as a very quiet option.

I have to wonder how many subs DirecTV would have without the aggressive promotions (new customer offer, retention offer, etc), and if it would make sense for them to walk away.

navychop · Nov 5, 2018

NFL smells money. Too bad. Their economic decisions to date are poor.

Then again, this is GREAT news!

I’m hoping for chapter 7 for the NFL!

I can dream, can’t I?

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Claude Greiner · Nov 5, 2018

I think AT&T will throw more money at it and keep it exclusive. It’s not so much at this point about the revenue they make selling the Sunday ticket, but rather the fact they have many many subscribers who have Directv because of the Sunday ticket. .

If the NFL thinks they can make more money offering their own streaming option, I think they are setting themselves up for a rude awakening.

The streaming option would have to be like $100 to make people want to subscribe.

The real loss is the second you introduce streaming, you loose the commercial market which is where a majority of the Sunday ticket revenue comes from.

Jimbo · Nov 5, 2018

I can see the NFL being opened up to other options, but I can't see it Not being on D* (Sat wise).

N5XZS · Nov 6, 2018

Streaming is the worst way to send video transmission format. The video frames rate with some freezes will crap out on over crowded internet bandwith!

Radioguy41 · Nov 6, 2018

jcrandall said:
I have to wonder how many subs DirecTV would have without the aggressive promotions (new customer offer, retention offer, etc), and if it would make sense for them to walk away.

Considering they still can't seem to get it working reliably perhaps they should ~~slink~~ walk away.

jcrandall · Nov 6, 2018

I could see this maturing to a product available with nearly any video source, such as MLB, which includes MLB.TV and Extra Innings.
You pay a premium if you want it from cable/sat, and get a discounted rate if you select streaming only.

Likely not quite as cheap as MLB ($120 and $180 range), but definitely cheaper than with DirecTV's exclusive $300+ range).

slice1900 · Nov 6, 2018

jcrandall said:
I could see this maturing to a product available with nearly any video source, such as MLB, which includes MLB.TV and Extra Innings.
You pay a premium if you want it from cable/sat, and get a discounted rate if you select streaming only.

Likely not quite as cheap as MLB ($120 and $180 range), but definitely cheaper than with DirecTV's exclusive $300+ range).

They would have to get a LOT more subscribers to offer it for less. If everyone who wants to watch out of market NFL games can do it via streaming, bars would not be willing to pay anywhere near what they are currently paying for NFLST because every additional person who signs up for it at home is one less customer for the bars.

It would be a highly risky gamble for the NFL that the total revenue they make from the streamers, plus whatever they get from Directv etc. outweighs the guaranteed $1.5 billion they get from Directv currently. Maybe they end up with $2 billion, but maybe they end up with only $1 billion. They would just be guessing how many people would sign up for Directv via streaming, and they wouldn't know what Directv would be willing to pay for a non-exclusive until they made that decision (Directv isn't going to agree to an amount before to help the NFL make up their mind) so it would be a shot in the dark.

MikeI · Nov 6, 2018

Durectv will not lose the ticket. Maybe exclusivity but it would be suicide .Cord cutting would jump significantly. It would cost "Rothsteins arm and Comiskeys leg."

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Techiefan · Nov 7, 2018

Another reason they give it away to new customers and when folks ask for it during a renewal period etc. More subs looks good for them even if they are artificially achieved, this is the same methods that Netflix and other services go after too. However being exclusive has it drawbacks and the NFL is seeing viewership decline so I am guessing they go the easy to view route over quality of services delivered to the consumer.

mdram · Nov 7, 2018

how many viewers will streaming only cost them?
rural america cant stream

Bruce · Nov 7, 2018

mdram said:
how many viewers will streaming only cost them?
rural america cant stream

Corporations do not care ( is it fair, nope), they care about that 80-85% of the population that do get broadband.

Look at all the new big channels coming that are internet only like the new Disney Streaming only channel, soon to be the only place to get first tier Disney movies ( after Theater ) and TV Series ( Star Wars, Marvel, Pixar, etc), they all want to follow the Netflix example which has done just fine without the Rural Population getting fast broadband.

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Tampa8 · Nov 7, 2018

Echoing what some have said, it sounds very risky that the NFL can get 1.5 Billion a year streaming. And would they be made to include the choice of (at much lower price) getting one team like MLB was forced to do and are there more people would want just their one favorite team they can't watch where they live? Will NFL Red Zone still be available because if it can be watched a very large percentage already say that is enough. How many getting Sunday Ticket get it free from Directv would not get it if they had to pay?

Is At&t willing to pay as much as they are paying now? Has At&t not wanted to do as many years as the NFL would want? Does the NFL have some plans we don't know about that they think would result in the sales and income?

Juan · Nov 7, 2018

theBruce said:
Corporations do not care ( is it fair, nope), they care about that 80-85% of the population that do get broadband.

Look at all the new big channels coming that are internet only like the new Disney Streaming only channel, soon to be the only place to get first tier Disney movies ( after Theater ) and TV Series ( Star Wars, Marvel, Pixar, etc), they all want to follow the Netflix example which has done just fine without the Rural Population getting fast broadband.

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If there is money to be made in rural broadband a solution will be found

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Juan · Nov 7, 2018

Tampa8 said:
Echoing what some have said, it sounds very risky that the NFL can get 1.5 Billion a year streaming. And would they be made to include the choice of (at much lower price) getting one team like MLB was forced to do and are there more people would want just their one favorite team they can't watch where they live? Will NFL Red Zone still be available because if it can be watched a very large percentage already say that is enough. How many getting Sunday Ticket get it free from Directv would not get it if they had to pay?

Is At&t willing to pay as much as they are paying now? Has At&t not wanted to do as many years as the NFL would want? Does the NFL have some plans we don't know about that they think would result in the sales and income?

Inhouse streaming...just cut the middleman

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Blackloz · Nov 7, 2018

I’ve been watching Sunday Ticket on DAZN live streaming. For just $20/Month or $150 CND for the year I can watch Sunday Ticket & Red Zone. It’s actually quite good, works very well. Much cheaper than DirecTV + if you only want Sunday Ticket you can pay $20/month and than cancel after the season is over till next year.

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slice1900 · Nov 7, 2018

Techiefan said:
Another reason they give it away to new customers and when folks ask for it during a renewal period etc. More subs looks good for them even if they are artificially achieved, this is the same methods that Netflix and other services go after too. However being exclusive has it drawbacks and the NFL is seeing viewership decline so I am guessing they go the easy to view route over quality of services delivered to the consumer.

The viewership decline has reversed this year, and if you measure as a percentage of people watching TV in fall 2016/2017 it didn't decline it just flattened out (i.e. every year people have more options for things to do with their free time, so TV watching is declining)

There were a lot of theories advanced about the reasons for the decline (targeting calls changing the sport, people upset over kneeling, bad luck on the quality of night game matchups the last couple seasons, etc.) none of which have to do with availability of out of market games. To the extent they are worried about viewership leveling off or declining, pulling Directv's exclusive may not be the best strategy. As you say the subscriber numbers are artificially inflated thanks to Directv's flat fee deal making it easy to give away as a spiff, when those freebies go away and everyone has to pay for NFLST it might reduce viewership more than greater availability of NFLST increases it.

navychop · Nov 7, 2018

Juan said:
If there is money to be made in rural broadband a solution will be found

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Well, there’s a few folks investing in LEO and MEO that think they have one.

And the Death Star is still making claims about Airgig.

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mdram · Nov 7, 2018

Juan said:
If there is money to be made in rural broadband a solution will be found

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there must be. elec coops are getting into the fiber business
Rural America Is Building High-Speed Internet the Same Way It Built Electricity in the 1930s

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