Blog: HD DVD: Fight or Quit (Preferably Quit)

[Sean Mota]

Blog: HD DVD: Fight or Quit (Preferably Quit)
Let's take a moment to push for the end of the pointless war that nobody wanted; the costly quagmire that's drained resources and consumed...

 

[gadgtfreek]

Theres two things looming right now that could make HDDVD's life worse:

1) The rumor that Weinstein is going nuetral (confirmed by a guy who stated the target deal well before it happened)

While this is a small studio, it IS a HDDVD exclusive, if it goes nuetral it will be more bad press

2) There are starting to be reports of the 300 HDDVD combo disc having errors in some A1's and 360 addons. This is not a title to be having issues with, Warner should have gotten this title right out of the gate as well as it was going to sell.

Most wont blame warner, they are gonna get po'd at HDDVD.

Neither will kill HDDVD, I tihkn theyll be around a bit. Just making it worse.

 

[csschrot]

I have been reading about all the this HD DVD / Blu Ray war. I'm looking at it from a business side. If I was running it and still to this point had 40% of the market since the start why would I give up that 40% slice of the pie. Nobody in their right mind would give that 40%. Now I know everyone will talk about the 74% / 26% spread for the week of July 22. However that is looking at the short term. While you can't overlook that you also can't run out a declare victory. Plus the HD disc is so new that they are barley 1% of the total disc sold.

This war will be long a costly for those that choose to jump in a place there vote.

Just my thoughts.

Shawn

 

[delanewf]

Theres two things looming right now that could make HDDVD's life worse:

1) The rumor that Weinstein is going nuetral (confirmed by a guy who stated the target deal well before it happened)

While this is a small studio, it IS a HDDVD exclusive, if it goes nuetral it will be more bad press

2) There are starting to be reports of the 300 HDDVD combo disc having errors in some A1's and 360 addons. This is not a title to be having issues with, Warner should have gotten this title right out of the gate as well as it was going to sell.

Most wont blame warner, they are gonna get po'd at HDDVD.

Neither will kill HDDVD, I tihkn theyll be around a bit. Just making it worse.

I believe Universal will also go neutral by the end of 2008 when they decide to read the writing on the wall. You will then hear the deathknell for HD-DVD.

 

[gadgtfreek]

I do not feel the this wil be over anytime soon, many BR adopters will buy HDDVD's this Christmas and vice versa.

I chose BR because I like the media specs better and I want it to succeed, the new hitachi blu camcorder is a fine example. I honestly could care less what happens to HDDVD at this point in my life.

I hope weinstein goes neutral which only leaves Univ as the HDDVD exclusive. This will mean no need to buy a HDDVD player because I can live with one major studio on SD DVD.

I dont see Univ changing anytime soon because Graffeo(sp?) is a raving lunatic anyways, unless they throw him out the door.

 

[thowe21]

I'd have to feel really sorry for anybody picking up a HD-DVD player right now thinking they are getting a great price and then to have it become obsolete within the next 9 months. That would suck.

When I went to buy 300 at Target on tuesday, the Blu-Ray's were sold out and the HD-DVD's were still plentifully available.

 

[gadgtfreek]

When the discs are released on both formats, br wins(Host this week and PE is still selling better on BR). Cant wait to see 300 vs 300 next week.

When BR has a crappy release week like this past week and HDDVD has a quality title (Bourne) it still cant get them past 65/35. This week as Bourne HDDVD vs Weeds BR (woohoo )

If I was Sony Id drop the PS3 60gig price to $399 to sell the rest and really put a hurting on the BR vs HDDVD hardware count. Then put the 80gig at $499 with Motorstorn included.

 

[csschrot]

It isn't the price of the PS3 that needs to drop. It is the price of the standalones that need to drop if BR wants to put a BIG hurt on HDDVD. I know I won't buy one until that happens and it has the ethernet port on the back. I don't mind Sony but I will not buy a gaming unit (which I don't like the look of) to play my movies. I sure there are many more that feel the same way.

Shawn

 

[diogen]

What is the count? Must be the 100th nail in the coffin of HD. It must be one stubborne corps...

"...writing on the wall", "...nail in the coffin", "...fat lady just about to sing", "...we won!", "...hear the deathknell", etc.
And all this over and over again starting in 2005...

If it so happens and BD will go the Betamax (and dodo) path, I think the future historians will likely link this fate with the forum posts of the BD fanbase...

Diogen.

 

[gadgtfreek]

It isn't the price of the PS3 that needs to drop. It is the price of the standalones that need to drop if BR wants to put a BIG hurt on HDDVD. I know I won't buy one until that happens and it has the ethernet port on the back. I don't mind Sony but I will not buy a gaming unit (which I don't like the look of) to play my movies. I sure there are many more that feel the same way.

Shawn

I disagree, over 4.4 mil ps3's sold worldwide, and July sales were supposed to have been over 100k units.

Say 10% of PS3 owners buy BR's, that equals 440k players. The PS3 (as stated by someone else) is a trojan horse.

Plus, anyone that thinks the PS3 is for gaming should really investigate it more. Its a home media center of sorts and its only getting better. If thats not what you want fine, but dont call it just a game system. It also stays in the top 3 as far as sd and hd pq goes among BR players.

 

[meStevo]

They have to make it other things because as a game system it is a failure and an incomplete product.

In 2 years, it will be very successful, but its first year or two are going to be very forgettable, and it will be regarded as a feature-laden Blu-Ray player.

....and if they get TiVo software on that thing.... I'll be in line to get one myself.

 

[JamesJ]

They have to make it other things because as a game system it is a failure and an incomplete product.

In 2 years, it will be very successful, but its first year or two are going to be very forgettable, and it will be regarded as a feature-laden Blu-Ray player.

....and if they get TiVo software on that thing.... I'll be in line to get one myself.

your first sentence is very much incorrect....it is outselling the 360 (finally , and at the same time in its life span it has outsold the 360) it is very dependable, very strong, and has many more uses as a game system! lair is coming out soon, Heavenly sword is coming out soon, Killzone 2, warhawk, games that have blown people away right now. but back to the topic of blu-ray vs hd dvd!

 

[gadgtfreek]

your first sentence is very much incorrect....it is outselling the 360 (finally , and at the same time in its life span it has outsold the 360) it is very dependable, very strong, and has many more uses as a game system! lair is coming out soon, Heavenly sword is coming out soon, Killzone 2, warhawk, games that have blown people away right now. but back to the topic of blu-ray vs hd dvd!

Its been weak since inception, BUT since E3 its moving. As stuart said, sales are up and games are coming. You also have Grand Theft Auto and Gran Turismo coming in early 08. More PS3/BR hardware in peoples homes which is good for BR.

 

[GaryPen]

It looks like my initial prediction will come true, and BD (the correct acronym is BD, not BR, btw) will prevail. It really was a no brainer from the get go. BD had more HW manufacturers and more content providers on board than HDDVD. That's all BD needed from day 1.

 

[Peter Parker]

It isn't the price of the PS3 that needs to drop. It is the price of the standalones that need to drop if BR wants to put a BIG hurt on HDDVD. I know I won't buy one until that happens and it has the ethernet port on the back. I don't mind Sony but I will not buy a gaming unit (which I don't like the look of) to play my movies. I sure there are many more that feel the same way.

Shawn

that might be the case for you but I know many who use the unit to play BD discs.

 

[gadgtfreek]

that might be the case for you but I know many who use the unit to play BD discs.

I think this argument has two approaches:

1) The percentage of people like me that bought the PS3 as a BD player/media hub and not a game machine

This percentage is probably very low

2) The percentage of people who bought a PS3 to play games and that have a HDTV. These people in turn say "why not buy/rent BD's?"

I think this group is much larger and where most of these sales are showing up from since we know that BD standalones have not sold as much as HDDVD standalones.

Both consoles in the format war are really getting the penetration more than the standalones.

 

[mruk69]

I think I will wait before buying an HD dvd player. Eventually, one of them will be dropped, does anyone remember the VHS v Betamax situation.
We never had the issue in England, we went straight to VHS.
Why is it in America this always happens, then we end up with large paperweights. I am glad i never bought a Divx Player.

 

[delanewf]

I think this argument has two approaches:

1) The percentage of people like me that bought the PS3 as a BD player/media hub and not a game machine

This percentage is probably very low

2) The percentage of people who bought a PS3 to play games and that have a HDTV. These people in turn say "why not buy/rent BD's?"

I think this group is much larger and where most of these sales are showing up from since we know that BD standalones have not sold as much as HDDVD standalones.

Both consoles in the format war are really getting the penetration more than the standalones.

I actually bought the PS3 as a BD player as its primary use and gaming system and internet browser as a secondary use. It has so many features, it is the most cost effective BD player out there. Another great thing about it is it can only get better with frequent firmware updates. Even if you never use it as a gaming system it is well worth the price. My only regret is not waiting a little longer and getting the 80gb with free Motorstorm game for the same price I paid for the 60gb. That Motorstorm is an awesome game!

 

[jayn_j]

I think I will wait before buying an HD dvd player. Eventually, one of them will be dropped, does anyone remember the VHS v Betamax situation.
We never had the issue in England, we went straight to VHS.
Why is it in America this always happens, then we end up with large paperweights. I am glad i never bought a Divx Player.

I believe the Betas/VHS comparison is not the best. This situation seems very similar to the Laserdisk/CED wars of 1981-3. CED had every studio except Warner and Universal. A few others were producing in both formats. A half dozen companies were producing CED players, and after the first year, every laserdisc player was produced by Pioneer. The situation looked as clear cut as the current one does to the BR folks, when suddenly RCA pulled the plug.

The situation is very similar today. After all the noise and hype, high def discs are still a niche. Most people are happy with the current DVD situation and mostly confused and uninterested in the high def hype.

It isn't like the DVD explosion because there are several factors missing. First, people were frustrated with wear issues and especially rewind times on VHS. Second, DVDs cost significantly less to produce than VHS and sold for a significantly higher price at first. Third, the player prices came down very quickly, and people didn't have to decide who was going to win a format war.

I really wish that an upgrade was in my near future, but I am still staying out of this one for now (and I AM a technophile)

 

[allargon]

I disagree with every analogy except for the laserdisc/ced one.

This is an argument over nothing. Blu-ray and HD-DVD are both small niche markets compared to DVD--period. Blu-ray players still cost too much. HD-DVD discs cost too much. (Why? I have no idea.) Joe six pack isn't interested. To him HD is DVD (progressive scan) on his 32" 768p Vizio/Sceptre/Emprex/Ilo/Westinghouse LCD.

Like it or not this is SACD/DVD-audio all over again. (I wish it were DVD+/-R, but it's not.)