Digibitalbits picks a winner

[JoeSp]

There are many sites that review DVDs, BDs, HD-DVDs, equipment and trends in the movie/tv industry. Digitalbits is one of them that has great information and insight into what is going in the movie industry when it comes to the differant formats that we use to enjoy our home theater setups. They are usually ahead of everyone else in information and the timeliness of that information. They have decided for the benefit of their readers to pick a side in the BD/HD-DVD war. Here is their response and reasons for their choice:

http://www.thedigitalbits.com/articles/soapbox/soap060107.html

 

[riffjim4069]

Good read...the article pretty much sums up why we selected Blu-Ray as our format of choice a few months ago.

 

[bidger`]

I'm not surprised. Hunt chose SACD over DVD-A in that pathetic little skirmish so that seems to be his party line.

 

[harshness]

Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.
-- George Santayana

Comparisons to VHS versus Beta may be hackneyed, but the parallels are no less real.

 

[diogen]

Hunt chose SACD over DVD-A...

At least, he's consistent, have to give him that: both SACD and BD are essentially Sony conceived products.

He likes to be the topic of conversation almost as much as he likes BD...

Diogen.

 

[navychop]

Great article, especially about there being enough greed to go around, and how the low player price presents a barrier to other manufacturer's support.

I note he says Blu-ray will win, or neither. I submit there is still a chance that both formats will survive, but it's a long shot. Retailers and studios would prefer to reduce the SKUs and inventory requirements.

I've put a reminder in my calendar, along with a copy of the article, for next January (CES 2008) and again in June 08. We'll see how his predictions work out and maybe I'll post the results.

 

[r.jones1116]

Pirates vs. Matrix is apples to oranges. Single release vs. box set. $25.00 vs. $75.00.

Pirates together sold 47,000 units or approx. 23,000 units each
Using the new Blu-Ray math - Matrix box set sold 13,900 or 41,700 units together (Matrix 1, 2 and 3).

The Depated BR sold 58,300.
The departed HDDVD Combo Disc 35,300. again apples to oranges but let's apply Blu-Ray math. 35,300 x 2 = 70,600 units because with a combo disc you get 2 movies.

It looks like a wash to me but we have all witnessed how the BD camp really loves to spin things.

When it comes to formats, when Sony is involved it is destined to fail.

 

[s8ist]

The article ignores the obvious. There is no drastic technological advantage of one over the other and yet the are still disproportionately priced*. The customer has the power to change what studios support which technology by expanding the userbase of the technology they support. If consumers would wise up to this reality, then we could all enjoy HD disc technology without having to surrender to a higher level entry cost, or wait for that higher-level entry cost to drop. It's available at low expense now. Why not buy it?

*Excluding HDi (IME) versus the incomplete standard of BD-Java... which arguably means BD adopters are paying for an incomplete technology... ?

 

[teachsac]

The article ignores the obvious. There is no drastic technological advantage of one over the other and yet the are still disproportionately priced*. The customer has the power to change what studios support which technology by expanding the userbase of the technology they support. If consumers would wise up to this reality, then we could all enjoy HD disc technology without having to surrender to a higher level entry cost, or wait for that higher-level entry cost to drop. It's available at low expense now. Why not buy it?

*Excluding HDi (IME) versus the incomplete standard of BD-Java... which arguably means BD adopters are paying for an incomplete technology... ?

Well said.... Many forget this point. This article basically says nothing different than what has been discussed for the past year. I have both formats and enjoy them both. Just so happens I have over a 2-1 ratio of HD-DVD movies to BD. My taste.

Back to your point, though. The technology piece is being looked at on both sides. The PS3 will not sustain the BD format on its own. The majority of people are going to buy a PS3 for what it is.... a gaming machine. CE companies are going to look at their stand-alone players and which will/do actually sell. Samsung and LG have seen that HD-DVD stand-alones are outpacing BD standalones, so they come out with a dual format player. I heard from the rep last week when I was in the shop from Denon, which was originally on the BD side, that they will produce an HD-DVD player.

Movie studios will also look at which format can bring the players into their homes. Unless BD can totally destroy HD-DVD movie sales, Universal will not change. However, Disney and Fox might take the Warner route since they are the only company that is somewhat successful in this abysmal, drawn out war.

In order to win this war player prices must be within reach of J6P regardless of which studio supports which format. This is what might doom BD. As for what was said about Toshiba taking a hit with pricing?... not really. All manufacturers take a hit with new technology. it's a chance they take. This is only a small part of their company. They still posted a profit over the first quarter. Same thing happening with Sony and the PS3. It's not their only revenue, so they posted a profit as well.

That's enough...

S~

 

[navychop]

There is a benefit in the computer storage world for Blu-ray over HD DVD. Much larger storage capacity, today and more growth space in the future. Cheaper cost per GB. In the movie world, 2 or even more movies could be put on one BD and the customer pays a fee for the unlocking code (doesn't appeal personally, but it may to some).

Toshiba has an incentive to lose money on players. Companies without a stake in HD DVD royalties have no such incentive. Denon is not going to sell players at a loss. They won't make it up on movie sales or in royalties. Of course, there are many who would gladly pay more for the Denon label over Toshiba, LG or Samsung. With good reason, IMHO.

It is rather unlikely that Disney will go neutral. They left HD DVD because of the lack of regional coding. By extension, you can see some general unhappiness with poor security, currently for both camps. No doubt many see great potential in BD+. Maybe it will work. I rather doubt it. Mind you, I believe it is possible to produce a DRM system that is not worth the bother to break- I just doubt the studios & manufacturers will pay for it.

Personally, my best guess as to the most likely outcome:
1. Blu-ray "wins" and HD DVD staggers on as a niche product, maybe 15% or less of the market.
2. Blu-ray "wins" and HD DVD disappears from the U.S. market.
3. Blu-ray and HD DVD co-exist, like 33 & 45 rpm records.
4. Neither becomes widely adopted, superseded by VOD, internet downloads or other technology (possibly another recording media if they continue the fratricide long enough).

But hey- I've been wrong before. My infallibility expired and I forgot to renew it.

I won't be buying a player this month.

 

[vurbano]

Its sad. YOu dont even have to read the thread to know who Bill Hunt will pick.

 

[GeorgeLV]

It's pretty simple folks, either Blu-ray wins or HD-lite wins for the next 3-5 years.

Blu-ray is the only optical format that can achieve full studio support and industry backing. Hell will freeze over before Sony, Fox, or MGM would release on HD DVD. You can probably Disney in that category too.

IMO, if Blu-ray fails, the alternative won't be HD DVD, it will be HD-lite (at least until the bandwidth catches up in 3-5 years) internet delivered content.

 

[CochiseGuy]

Well said.... Many forget this point. This article basically says nothing different than what has been discussed for the past year. I have both formats and enjoy them both. Just so happens I have over a 2-1 ratio of HD-DVD movies to BD. My taste.

Back to your point, though. The technology piece is being looked at on both sides. The PS3 will not sustain the BD format on its own. The majority of people are going to buy a PS3 for what it is.... a gaming machine. CE companies are going to look at their stand-alone players and which will/do actually sell. Samsung and LG have seen that HD-DVD stand-alones are outpacing BD standalones, so they come out with a dual format player. I heard from the rep last week when I was in the shop from Denon, which was originally on the BD side, that they will produce an HD-DVD player.

Movie studios will also look at which format can bring the players into their homes. Unless BD can totally destroy HD-DVD movie sales, Universal will not change. However, Disney and Fox might take the Warner route since they are the only company that is somewhat successful in this abysmal, drawn out war.

In order to win this war player prices must be within reach of J6P regardless of which studio supports which format. This is what might doom BD. As for what was said about Toshiba taking a hit with pricing?... not really. All manufacturers take a hit with new technology. it's a chance they take. This is only a small part of their company. They still posted a profit over the first quarter. Same thing happening with Sony and the PS3. It's not their only revenue, so they posted a profit as well.

That's enough...

S~

Very insightful, tech. Actually much better than Bill Hunt. He's beginning to soun d like a broken record. I'm glad he wasn't a "voice" back in the videotape format wars or we would all still watching Betamax.

He claims to be an authority on digital media. OK, let's try this:

"Let's get back to that business model problem I mentioned a moment ago. It should come as a surprise to no one that Toshiba has been losing money on their HD-DVD players"

Source? Unlike Sony's public earnings statement disclosing hundreds of millions of dollars on the PS3, I have never seen any public statements of losses from Tosiba - which is a publicly traded stock in Tokyo.

Let's look at the studio support side. HD-DVD has just one major exclusive studio supporter: Universal. Blu-ray has FIVE exclusive studios: Disney, Fox, MGM, Lionsgate and Sony. Which exclusive group do you think is more likely to go format neutral first? (FYI, the other major studios - Warner, Paramount, DreamWorks - already support both formats, and New Line has indicated that they'll likely do the same.) For better or worse, one of the reasons some of these studios sided with Blu-ray exclusively is because that format offers them an additional layer of content protection: BD+ (the details of which Sony is soon to finalize

First of all, Hunt touts the broad studio & CE company support for BD, repeatedly saying it's not a "Sony format". But when it comes to BD+_, but when it comes to the next develop[ment of BD+, it's suddenly "Sony is soon to finalize"?
Besides the point that BD has been out for a year now and they're still "finalizing"
the format, where is this "overwhelming studio support? There are more movies coming out this summer on HD DVD than Blu-ray by a large margin.

And though no one will say it on the record (though many industry insiders admit, off the record, that they believe it), we'd be surprised if Microsoft wasn't subsidizing both Toshiba's hardware losses and Universal's exclusive commitment to HD-DVD in some way. That's just our gut feeling. We can't prove it
[/B]

Yeah. Thanks for the "insight", Bill.

Sorry, IMHO, Bill Hunt is an old hack whose time has passed.

 

[Derwin0]

I'm not surprised. Hunt chose SACD over DVD-A in that pathetic little skirmish so that seems to be his party line.

The article said if one of them won, it would be blu-ray.
In the SACD/DVD-A battle, neither one. Which is one of the options he says will happen here, blu ray or neither, but no HD-DVD.

 

[JoeSp]

It is Toshiba's business model that Bill takes to task. If a product is selling well no one drops the price -- there is not a need to. If a product is selling well no one offers a $100 rebate -- there is no need to. If a product is selling well no one gives freebees (like 5 free movies) because there is no need to. Who is paying for the $100 rebate? Who is paying for the free rebates? What other manufacturer or studio wants to get involved in the business of subsidising what they are trying to sell?

My guess is that if this move by Toshiba does not put HD-DVD over the top of BD in discs sales (because you are only going to buy one DVD player but many movies) by the Xmas Season then you will probably see a white flag from the HD-DVD camp.

If this move maintains the status quo as it is now (with BD sales 3-1 over HD-DVD for the year begining in Januarary) then you will see the white flag.

If this move can place HD-DVD on an even keel with BD in discs sales then this 'format war' will continue on into 2008 and maybe further.

However, if the BD camp brings out a BD player for under $400 or and God forbid $300 for this XMAS 2007 then you will see the demise of HD-DVD by summer of 2008. The reason is the only news coming out on HD-DVD is the massive subsidising of Toshiba's HD-DVD players on the market right now. Remove that and HD-DVD has no news happening.

Bill has it right, the only format that can really win anymore is Blu-Ray. If both survive thru 2008 then I see both dying a slow death in 3 to 5 years with something new taking over (maybe HD downloading -- M$ would be overwhelemed with joy.

 

[JoeSp]

The article ignores the obvious. There is no drastic technological advantage of one over the other and yet the are still disproportionately priced*. The customer has the power to change what studios support which technology by expanding the userbase of the technology they support. If consumers would wise up to this reality, then we could all enjoy HD disc technology without having to surrender to a higher level entry cost, or wait for that higher-level entry cost to drop. It's available at low expense now. Why not buy it?

*Excluding HDi (IME) versus the incomplete standard of BD-Java... which arguably means BD adopters are paying for an incomplete technology... ?

Lets look at this from the studios point of view.

BD offers another level of protection (BD+- to be available for use in July). Regional coding (HD-DVD really drop the ball here and this is the main reason you will see no Disney on HD-DVD -- ever).

BD offers more space -- single layer 25GB to 15GB. This is a no brainer here. Every layer you add to each format gives BD a much bigger advantage.


BD offers a much higher level of mbits up to 40 for video encoding -- HD-DVD cannot even get close.

BD title sales are easily outstripping HD-DVD same title sales. And here I will drop the gauntlet and we will use the MATRIX as the cross to bear. The Matrix hit HD-DVD first -- that means that it will be coming later to BD. My guess is around XMAS or the first quarter of 2008. My gauntlet is to bet that The Matrix in first month sales to first month sales will easily outstrip HD-DVD sales of the same title for the same period of time. Four simple weeks -- that is it. The bet is -- a Coke Cola - of course. I prefer Dr. Pepper.

 

[r.jones1116]

Lets look at this from the studios point of view.

BD offers another level of protection (BD+- to be available for use in July). Regional coding (HD-DVD really drop the ball here and this is the main reason you will see no Disney on HD-DVD -- ever).

BD offers more space -- single layer 25GB to 15GB. This is a no brainer here. Every layer you add to each format gives BD a much bigger advantage.


BD offers a much higher level of mbits up to 40 for video encoding -- HD-DVD cannot even get close.

BD title sales are easily outstripping HD-DVD same title sales. And here I will drop the gauntlet and we will use the MATRIX as the cross to bear. The Matrix hit HD-DVD first -- that means that it will be coming later to BD. My guess is around XMAS or the first quarter of 2008. My gauntlet is to bet that The Matrix in first month sales to first month sales will easily outstrip HD-DVD sales of the same title for the same period of time. Four simple weeks -- that is it. The bet is -- a Coke Cola - of course. I prefer Dr. Pepper.

Space has not proven to be any advantage yet in this war. HDDVD encodes have been on par if not better than BD.

The software numbers are what they are due to HDDVd not releasing anything for two months.

Disney - How many movies have they released so far? The Pirates series really isn't all that great any way

BD is a Sony format and will fail. I will up your bet to a case of Dr. Pepper on that one.

 

[bidger`]

If a product is selling well no one drops the price -- there is not a need to.

The need would be to have mass market penetration. If you keep the players over $500, the average consumer will wait for it to drop. I did that with DVD and I'll bet most consumers did.

 

[CochiseGuy]

Lets look at this from the studios point of view.

BD offers another level of protection (BD+- to be available for use in July). Regional coding (HD-DVD really drop the ball here and this is the main reason you will see no Disney on HD-DVD -- ever).

- Any souyrce for the BD+ being available in July? I haven't seen anything other than "in development".

- I'll bet you a 2 Liter Dr. Pepper that BD+ is hacked within 2 months of debut.

- If region coding is so important to Disney, then how come none of their BD releases use any region coding - not even the Pirate movies.

BD offers more space -- single layer 25GB to 15GB. This is a no brainer here. Every layer you add to each format gives BD a much bigger advantage.

No denying that additional storage is always useful. Uncompressed PCM audio is a good example - excellent HD audio with not decoding necessary. But with compressed HD audio - such as TrueHD - and more efficient video codecs - such as VC-1 - movies fit very nicely on 30GB HD DVD discs.

BD offers a much higher level of mbits up to 40 for video encoding -- HD-DVD cannot even get close.

That kinda reminds me of a "Detroit Muscle car" with 450HP sitting stuck in bumper to bumper traffic - what good is the extra horsepower? I watched the "meter" on the PS3 while watching the POTC rental. Yep, cranked all the way up to 34/36mbps during dark scenes. But, really - who needs it? VC-1 offers comparable video quality 10-15mbps, as in the BD release of "The Queen". And what's with that PCM audio on "The Queen" pumping out at a constant 640kbps??? Dolby Digital would have done just as well, and the movie probably would have fit on a SL 15GB HD DVD.

BD title sales are easily outstripping HD-DVD same title sales. And here I will drop the gauntlet and we will use the MATRIX as the cross to bear. The Matrix hit HD-DVD first -- that means that it will be coming later to BD. My guess is around XMAS or the first quarter of 2008. My gauntlet is to bet that The Matrix in first month sales to first month sales will easily outstrip HD-DVD sales of the same title for the same period of time. Four simple weeks -- that is it. The bet is -- a Coke Cola - of course. I prefer Dr. Pepper.

Toshiba announced a "5 to 10 fold" increase in HD DVD players since the $100 rebate promo. HD DVD disc sales need to & will pick up to become close to BD in weekly sales. I bet a Diet Dr. Pepper that HD DVD will take the lead weekly sales as reported by Nielson for at least a week or two during July.

 

[JoeSp]

Toshiba anounces a FIRE SALE!! They give you $100 off and 5 HD-DVD movies out of a very poor selection to buy their player. WHY?

Could it be that they are seeing the writing on the wall? Could it be that if they do not increase Universals discs sales that Universal will go format nuetral? Are they trying to flood the market with HD-DVD players before BD joins them and runs them out of town?

None of the above questions really matter. The ONLY REASON a manufacturer offers rebates and freebees is because their product is not meeting projections. It must be really hard to fathom how HD-DVD can have more standalones in homes and not have consistant sales that would topple BD disc sales. It also must be harder to grasp the concept that nobody in the past year has joined them but two studios that were originally in the HD-DVD camp have become format nuetral. And there are no major manufacturers out there jumping in their basement price boat either. Companies want to make money and if they can not they will just stay home.