DirecTV, EchoStar await their fate at AT&T With A PartnerShip

Poke

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Dec 3, 2003
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http://www.marketwatch.com/news/sto...643-4F82-4E71-9400-517C0CBC523F}&siteid=yhoof

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- In an intensifying battle to hold off incursions by cable TV providers, AT&T Inc. is about to put its strategy to a new test.

A key step likely will come some time later this year, when the company is expected to unveil a decision that could roil the satellite TV market. AT&T, which now has two satellite providers in its stable as a result of its BellSouth acquisition, soon plans to choose between the two -- and abandon one of them.

Decides which one of the two archrivals will be left standing as Ma Bell's exclusive satellite-television partner.

The loss of a major contract certainly wouldn't be good news for DirecTV or EchoStar, owner of Dish. More than 800,000 DirecTV customers and perhaps 700,000 Dish subscribers signed up with AT&T as part of a discounted bundle of video, phone and Internet service.

The partnership with AT&T helps cut marketing costs for the satellite carriers and augments their ability to add new customers at a time when subscriber-growth rates are slowing.

"It's an important part of their business," said Jimmy Schaeffler, a satellite-industry analyst who runs The Carmel Group. "The phone companies are helping the satellite companies to retain their strong subscriber-growth numbers."
For now, said AT&T spokesman Fletcher Cook, no decision has been reached. "Satellite remains very important to AT&T and we are still exploring our options," he said. Dish and DirecTV officials declined to discuss the issue.

Yet the chief financial officer of the nation's largest phone company has publicly acknowledged that AT&T would end one of the relationships in early 2008.
"Both of those are contractual arrangements that run through roughly the first part of next year;" AT&T CFO Rick Linder told investors at a conference last week. "And so I would expect that we will migrate to one provider, and we will make those final decisions between now and the end of this year."
Ties that bind

The marketing arrangement with AT&T is one of many struck by the satellite companies in the past few years as they battle the cable industry for customers.
"They have broadband. They have wireless phone. They have long-distance and local phone," Charles Ergen, EchoStar's chief executive, explained in a recent conference call with analysts. "So they have the ability to allow us to get our customers a quadruple play that cable really can't offer."

In each of those cases, the phone companies offer just one satellite choice to customers. The same had been true for AT&T, whose marketing of Dish stems from Ma Bell's recent acquisition of BellSouth.

BellSouth, as it turns out, was DirecTV's largest phone partner, bringing in more than 800,000 video customers. Suddenly DirecTV became AT&T's biggest video provider, giving rise to the company's current entanglement with the two fierce satellite rivals.

Yet the longer and deeper relationship between AT&T and EchoStar puts Dish on the inside track to remain in the AT&T fold, analysts say. AT&T paired up with Denver-based EchoStar (DISH : EchoStar Communications Corp
in 2003, and the two recently began to offer a well-regarded satellite-broadband product called Homezone.
Homezone combines television and Internet service in one box, allowing customers to download movies, schedule recordings remotely or gain access to any file on their personal computers via their TV sets.
 
I'd be happy if I could get a better deal on HSI. Right now I pay Comcast $61(6000 down), Bellsouth DSL would cost me $53 for the 1500down. Both deals pretty much suck

I wish theyd offer unbundled DSL or Comcast would have better price tiers.
 
Yes I do believe that AT&T will stay with Dish, in fact I know they are getting ready for a big release of the new HomeZone 622hz MPEG4 DVR/receiver.

I can't see AT&T dumping all the money into making this product then start rolling it out to go with DirecTV.
 
Oh I can see stock prices for three companies going nutz over the next few months. Dont count on an expenditure with homezone being much of a factor in att's decision, its not uncommon for a company to dump a program that they have put large amounts of money into if they think something else will garner them more money and a better long term situation.
 
Oh I can see stock prices for three companies going nutz over the next few months. Dont count on an expenditure with homezone being much of a factor in att's decision, its not uncommon for a company to dump a program that they have put large amounts of money into if they think something else will garner them more money and a better long term situation.


Yeah, the US govt operates like that all the time.
 
Yeah, the US govt operates like that all the time.
Oh that would be the " Lets give money to other countries to help their people out who live in poverty even though the ranking goverment officials live in luxury while we ignore our own people and problems"
 
Or the "lets pump tons of money into a new military technology" and then cancel it later.

I am by no means anti military, but that happens a good bit. Plus lets not forget the Air Force's telekenetic studies :eek:
 
A former board member of SNET (Southern New England Telephone -aquired by Cingular) is my neighbor. He is still an executive with the now AT&T. He gives zero chance they go with Direct TV though he has no impact on the decision.
 
I bet a lot is riding on Dish being able to get their new system up and running. I could see serious issues if Dish is not able to deliver LiL HD everywhere like DIRECTV will be able to do, not to mention channel carrying capacity for national HD.
 
Yes I do believe that AT&T will stay with Dish, in fact I know they are getting ready for a big release of the new HomeZone 622hz MPEG4 DVR/receiver.

I can't see AT&T dumping all the money into making this product then start rolling it out to go with DirecTV.

So out of those 800,000 D* subs, you figure maybe 500,000 will move to E*? Could be a nice boost on the way to overtaking D* in subscriber count.


Yeah, the US govt operates like that all the time.

Now wait- I can explain about that toilet seat! ;)
 
I believe it will shake out that AT&T chooses E* as a result of Chariie offering and allowing them to take an ownership stake in E* (I would guess 20%).

Win win for both. AT&T gets a foot in the door on TV distribution, Charlie cashes out some of this stocks at a premium price...
 
I've been saying all along that I would expect AT&T to go the D* route, that based on the current situation, D* continuing with their plan to deliver the new sats and advancements with the HD front.
That said, AT&T does already have a good working agreement with DISH, I'd hate to see them throw that away.

Jimbo
 
A former board member of SNET (Southern New England Telephone -aquired by Cingular) is my neighbor. He is still an executive with the now AT&T. He gives zero chance they go with Direct TV though he has no impact on the decision.

As the list of people that fit your description is extremely small, I would be very careful what you say from him as it could get him in a ton of trouble with the SEC
 
I don't believe they will do either.

If they go with E*, they have to replace 800K DirecTV receivers and dishes, if the go with D*, they have to replace 700K DishNetwork receivers and dishes.

I look for the status quo to remain for practical purposes, it's too expensive to jump either way.

On second thought, if they drop either one, I guess the subs would just revert to the provider?? Anything else is a nightmare.

If I were a Homezone sub and AT&T tried to force DirecTV on me I might just jump to Dish, same if I was a DirecTV sub - leave me alone and turn up the volume!!

They might enroll new subs on the "chosen" provider, but to change over the old ones - OUCH!!
 
As the list of people that fit your description is extremely small, I would be very careful what you say from him as it could get him in a ton of trouble with the SEC

True on that, even speculation can get your ass in trouble with SEC specialy if someone doesnt hear all of the conversation or takes what is said the wrong way and leaks it out causing a financial catastrophe costing alot of people alot of money.

I don't believe they will do either.

If they go with E*, they have to replace 800K DirecTV receivers and dishes, if the go with D*, they have to replace 700K DishNetwork receivers and dishes.

I look for the status quo to remain for practical purposes, it's too expensive to jump either way.

On second thought, if they drop either one, I guess the subs would just revert to the provider?? Anything else is a nightmare.

If I were a Homezone sub and AT&T tried to force DirecTV on me I might just jump to Dish, same if I was a DirecTV sub - leave me alone and turn up the volume!!

They might enroll new subs on the "chosen" provider, but to change over the old ones - OUCH!!
Thats asuming that they would have to change over those customers of the loosing company because in this instance the loosing company isnt going black at the termination of the contract as you would find with a cable company that has been sold out such as in the case of when E purchased all of Bell Souths wireless cable customers back in 2001.

I would expect them to offer those customers the option to stay with said company or switch over to the new company and either way they will most likely stay on a single monthly statement. But if it did come down to having to swap over all of the customers its something that would probably take about 2 years to accomplish ( this is based on numbers from the Bell South to Dish conversion process in 2001 when 28,000 customers were switched over in a 3 month period ). But even this I dont see them doing as with a conversion of this size it would require alot of dedicated manpower specificaly for the conversion and not with adding new E customers, its one thing for Charlie to send a few thousand techs and subs to the gulf coast for a few months to repair systems at no charge but two years of dedicated teams in the regions where bellsouth has a footprint is going to be way way to costly.

I can give details on the average cost per tech based on tech rollout for the 2005 hurricane recovery program if you like and its not pretty.
 
Hotel stay for one person for 30 days not including complimentary meals at a moderately priced hotel $5,487.90.

Hotel stay for one person at a cheap roadside motel infested with roaches and poorly mantained ( sunset in motel in Pensacola ) $1,499.70.

Per diem for a single person for 30 days $963. - $1,500.

Pay rate with overtime and incentives and bonuses based on what I made in november of 2005 working 28 days $6,300.00, I dont have the pay stub on hand right now so I will have to update this later when I get home today.

Fuel cost's at $3.20 a gallon for regular unleaded based on a 30 day rate of use $900. Lease vehicle payment $250 roughly, mantainance $29 and up depending on what needs done.

Administrative costs I cant even begin to touch but truck rolls would be $118 for 2 hours, average roll out per tech for jobs per day would be 6 jobs at $708 for labour. Parts usage would vary from $50 up to $658 per job depending on what was needed, with a conversion your consistantly looking at the high end without having to run all new cable, if thats the case then look at it as a whole new install and the retail value of all parts so it starts atleast at $400 roughly and goes up.

So when I stayed in Pensacola and Mobile my hotel stay was about half of the cheap rate as it was only two weeks, pay rate was marginal as I wasnt able to get the overtime that other techs were due to extenuating circumstances, but when I was in Miami the first hotel rate is what I was housed at due to hotel room availability issues as the market was flooded with various repair professionals from all over the place. My group stayed at the crowne plaza motel in Miami south of the international airport, room rate was $183.90 per night in the 2000 point section.
 

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