DIRECTV unlikely to keep NFL Sunday Ticket

[Bruce]

How much do you think sunday ticket will cost apple...lets say 1.5 billion... ( current price directv pays)divided by 300 means 5 million subs @ $300 to break even... but the true price is closer to 2.5 billion ..which is basically 8.3 million subs @ $300 to break even... the truth is directv only has 2 million subscribers to sunday ticket...There is no way you would ever be paying $300 for sunday ticket...it will be in the $600 + range

Good luck with reality

I have always wrote that Amazon ( who everyone thought would get it ) should price it around $100-200 to attract subscribers, since Amazon has so many Prime members.

Since it has come to light that whoever gets it cannot do that, they ( amazon or Apple) will try other ways to make money with it, my guess will be advertising.

I do not believe it will be a good loss leader, Amazon already has most Households already.

Apple has the problem that people keep thinking they have to have a Apple Device, whenever you have to educate customers is not a good thing, by the time everyone figures it out, the contract will be half over.

 

[meStevo]

How much do you think sunday ticket will cost apple...lets say 1.5 billion... ( current price directv pays)divided by 300 means 5 million subs @ $300 to break even... but the true price is closer to 2.5 billion ..which is basically 8.3 million subs @ $300 to break even... the truth is directv only has 2 million subscribers to sunday ticket...There is no way you would ever be paying $300 for sunday ticket...it will be in the $600 + range

Good luck with reality

That's not reality though. A ton more nuance to both the cost, revenue and brand value.

 

[meStevo]

Apple has the problem that people keep thinking they have to have a Apple Device, whenever you have to educate customers is not a good thing, by the time everyone figures it out, the contract will be half over.

Having something customers want will go a long way on the education front. Sporting events are more than a TV series where you consider that 'one day I'll sub and watch that' and help push through that barrier. One of the myriad of values deals like this bring to a brand and platform, and leads to additional consumer spending, for both hardware and subscriptions in both Apple and Amazon's cases.

 

[Juan]

I have always wrote that Amazon ( who everyone thought would get it ) should price it around $100-200 to attract subscribers, since Amazon has so many Prime members.

Since it has come to light that whoever gets it cannot do that, they ( amazon or Apple) will try other ways to make money with it, my guess will be advertising.

I do not believe it will be a good loss leader, Amazon already has most Households already.

Apple has the problem that people keep thinking they have to have a Apple Device, whenever you have to educate customers is not a good thing, by the time everyone figures it out, the contract will be half over.

The problem is there are only 2 million subs on directv for sunday ticket

 

[Bruce]

The problem is there are only 2 million subs on directv for sunday ticket

Which is roughly 20% of DirecTV customers.(10-11 million)

If Amazon gets it and they get 20%, that is 30 million, so at $300 per, that is 9 Billion.

I believe it is more likely about 10%, which is still $4.5 Billion, 5% of Prime Subs, 7,500,000, is $2.25 Billion.

Based on sheer number of Prime Members, Amazon is still the best at getting the most subs to ST.

 

[Juan]

Which is roughly 20% of DirecTV customers.(10-11 million)

If Amazon gets it and they get 20%, that is 30 million, so at $300 per, that is 9 Billion.

I believe it is more likely about 10%, which is still $4.5 Billion, 5% of Prime Subs, 7,500,000, is $2.25 Billion.

Based on sheer number of Prime Members, Amazon is still the best at getting the most subs to ST.

No..the pool won't grow that much..just not that much interest in out of market football...

 

[slice1900]

No..the pool won't grow that much..just not that much interest in out of market football...

He lives in an alternate reality where there are tens of millions of people who want NFLST but have refused to get Directv to get it.

If the pricing remains approximately the same I'd guess at best whoever gets it can double from 2 to 4 million subscribers.

Being able to monetize the 1-2 minutes of "local" ad time per hour during broadcasts will be valuable, perhaps more valuable than the subscriptions themselves. I could see Apple using that to promote Apple products. Amazon would probably be more traditional and sell most of the ad slots to the usual suspects like Directv currently does.

 

[Bruce]

He lives in an alternate reality where there are tens of millions of people who want NFLST but have refused to get Directv to get it.

Why is that so amazing that people would want NFLST but not DirecTV?

 

[comp9]

Why is that so amazing that people would want NFLST but not DirecTV?

I know several people who will sign up once it’s off Directv Between the dish. The high prices and old equipment they want nothing to do with Directv

 

[Don in CT]

Why can’t the NFL just sell ST direct to consumers online.

 

[comp9]

Why can’t the NFL just sell ST direct to consumers online.

They dont want to manage it

 

[AZ.]

Why can’t the NFL just sell ST direct to consumers online.

The greed that bleeds from the NFL thats why!
Remember when they didnt pay taxes?

(At the corporate level, the National Football League considers itself a trade association made up of and financed by its 32 member teams. Up until 2015, the league was an unincorporated nonprofit 501(c)(6) association.)

 

[Juan]

Why is that so amazing that people would want NFLST but not DirecTV?

Because if they really wanted NFLST..they would already have directv

 

[Jimbo]

The question that needs to be answered is :
How many NFL (Out of Market) want it, that don't already have it.

I don't see Amazon or Apple selling all that much more than D* has.

Yes, they will sell a percentage more, but it's not gonna be like 30-60% more like some thing ...

NFL fans are Not sitting out there saying, I WANT to watch my OOM team, but I won't get D* ...
Yes, there are some, but not as many as most of you think.

Seeing its being reported that they have to or will sell it for the same (approx) of $300 , I don't see it selling like hotcakes like some thing.

1st year or 2 they will have a lot more than they will over the long term, curiosity will drive that, after that,, will be the real test.

Personally, I hope (if it's between Apple and Amazon only) Amazon gets it.

I can't handle 24/7 commercials from Apple touting how they are great, more than we are already over Appled.

 

[navychop]

I see a sports crash, if we have a major recession. Mama wants the babies FED first.

 

[Don in CT]

The question that needs to be answered is :
How many NFL (Out of Market) want it, that don't already have it.

I don't see Amazon or Apple selling all that much more than D* has.

Yes, they will sell a percentage more, but it's not gonna be like 30-60% more like some thing ...

NFL fans are Not sitting out there saying, I WANT to watch my OOM team, but I won't get D* ...
Yes, there are some, but not as many as most of you think.

Seeing its being reported that they have to or will sell it for the same (approx) of $300 , I don't see it selling like hotcakes like some thing.

1st year or 2 they will have a lot more than they will over the long term, curiosity will drive that, after that,, will be the real test.

Personally, I hope (if it's between Apple and Amazon only) Amazon gets it.

I can't handle 24/7 commercials from Apple touting how they are great, more than we are already over Appled.

I enjoyed it when I had it for free. I don’t miss it not having DTV but if the price was right I’d gladly do it.

 

[Jimbo]

I enjoyed it when I had it for free. I don’t miss it not having DTV but if the price was right I’d gladly do it.

See, now theres the difference ...
You enjoy if when it was Free, which is fine, But, I would GUESS that your team is actually a local team that you don't need ST to see, while looking at other games on ST when you decide too .....

Other People, like Myself ... use ST to SEE OUR Team(s) ...
Without it, would not have been able to see my Steelers for the last 20+ years ...
Thats a Family thing actually, we all get together and enjoy, or complain, depending on how the day went !

 

[meStevo]

I see a sports crash, if we have a major recession. Mama wants the babies FED first.

Maybe for lesser leagues, for leagues like the NFL the TV rights are the bulk of their revenue and most of their tickets are sold several months in advance.

 

[SamCdbs]

The question that needs to be answered is :
How many NFL (Out of Market) want it, that don't already have it.

I don't see Amazon or Apple selling all that much more than D* has.

The answer to that is, with all respect, maybe 20 or 30 people nationwide.

If you want ST, you get DirecTV.

The idea that there is this great mass of people, staring dumbly at their cell phone, wishing oh wishing that it had ST is just fantasy. If you want ST, you HAVE ST currently.

 

[Bilbo1]

I see a sports crash, if we have a major recession. Mama wants the babies FED first.

Maybe for lesser leagues, for leagues like the NFL the TV rights are the bulk of their revenue and most of their tickets are sold several months in advance.

I’m going to disagree with both of you.

Streaming, and it’s insatiable appetite for compelling content provides an opportunity for sports. There is a great deal of interest in sports like lacrosse and soccer, along with a whole host of intercollegiate sports out there. There are lots of people that care about them and would watch.

Formula 1 and Indy car are prime examples of historically relatively obscure sports (at least in the US) that are gaining interest and drawing viewers.

The current best source for this is ESPN+, but Apple and Amazon are making inroads. Paramount+ has UEFA competitions and NWSL.

And, is cheap for lots of hours… MLS is going to cost Apple $250 million for over 1,000 hours of content a year. That’s peanuts compared to producing a scripted series, even without special effects. Other sports are going to cost less, much less. These sports can be augmented with studio shows that make compelling stories about the athletes and the game… highlights and pregame shows. All relatively cheap.

Sports are the ultimate reality show.