EchoStar profit rises but subscriber growth slows

[Suppafreak]

EchoStar profit rises but subscriber growth slows - Yahoo! News

NEW YORK (Reuters) - EchoStar Communications Corp (DISH.O), the second-largest U.S. satellite television operator, on Friday reported a rise in third-quarter profit but said subscriber growth slowed due to worsening economic conditions and increased competition.

 

[tigerfan33]

Increased competition = Direct launch hd channels

 

[Stargazer]

Yet DirecTv's subscriber growth is better than it was last year. Seems like DirecTv is doing better with subscriber growth than Dish Network. If Dish Network would not be the way they are to their retailers they might get more sales. They are shooting themselves in the foot and eventually it will catch up with them.

 

[Dish-Direc]

Someone afraid to say that people moving to FTA recveivers?

 

[Zombie069]

Compare the subscriber base. When your a "small" company (in comparison) like direct vs dish, it takes less actual growth to make your numbers look good.
If DTV goes from 1 million (hypethetical) subs, to 1.5 million, they look to have a great growth rate.
If Dish goes from 10 million (hypethetical) subs, to 10.5 million, it doesn't look anywhere near as good on paper, although they gained the same number of subs.
I don't know about other areas, but around here it's gotta about 5 or 6-1 dish to dtv dishes that I see when driving around.

 

[ScoBuck]

I await the conference call on Monday - but it is striking the difference in trends between the numbers posted last week by DirecTV and now by DISH.

DISH for Q3 = 110,000 net new subs, a drop of 62.7% from last year
DirecTV for Q3 - 240,000 net new subs, an increase of 45% from last year

DISH for Q3 = churn rate of 1.94%, DirecTV for Q3 churn rate of 1.61%

Also, the tone of the two press announcements is totally different, DISH presenting a pessimistic view, DirecTV presenting a very positive view.

Just read page 34 of the 10-Q they filed - not happy news there:
http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/DISH/177559200x0xS1035704-07-765/1001082/filing.pdf

 

[riffjim4069]

It's amazing what 25+ years of badwill has done to the cable industry...not even the $99 triple play can keep cable customers from jumping ship.

 

[pdxsam]

As I posted in another thread. If the churn continues at an elevated pace in Q4, Wall Street is going to start asking tough questions. Charlie's not going to like that.

Dish right now could be headed for the rock and a hard place. Charlie's hardball with MLB, slowdown with HD channels, etc, all figure into the churn.

DirecTv right now is giving everyone everything they want. The temptation to move is getting bigger and bigger. The big plus DIsh has right now is the people under contract. I'd love to know how many customers come off contract in the 4th quarter and how many of those churn.

 

[cariera]

Compare the subscriber base. When your a "small" company (in comparison) like direct vs dish, it takes less actual growth to make your numbers look good.
If DTV goes from 1 million (hypethetical) subs, to 1.5 million, they look to have a great growth rate.
If Dish goes from 10 million (hypethetical) subs, to 10.5 million, it doesn't look anywhere near as good on paper, although they gained the same number of subs.
I don't know about other areas, but around here it's gotta about 5 or 6-1 dish to dtv dishes that I see when driving around.

How does this look on paper?

E* 110K/13.8M = .8% Growth

D* 240K/16.6M = 1.4% Growth

It looks like D*'s growth rate is almost double that of E*

 

[Claude Greiner]

It has alot to do with the promotion, and nothing to do with which provider is actually better than the other!

The reason for Directv's numbers are simple, they have been advertising everywhere and giving everything away for FREE. On the commercial stuff they are giving 1/2 off programming for 6 months, and on the residential side its been 4 months FREE when you get the Sunday Ticket for $49.99/mo.

What has Dish been doing for the past 3 months? ABSOLUTLY NOTHING!

Seriously, they are running very little to no national adverising and the promotion sucks!

We used to have $10 off for 10 months, and that worked good until they took that away at the end of August.

The only tool I have right now to push DISH Network is the HBO/Cinemax FREE for 3 months, and if the customer is getting HD they get the FREE HD/DVR and 6 months of FREE programming.

As far as HD goes, the smart customers are still signing up for DISH Network, but alot of customers are signing up for Directv for HD because of all the hype and are not taking the time to do a true compairison to see that all the hype is about nothing!

I heard a nice little rumor Directv is due up for a big price increase, especially on the HD services, which will deffinitly help DISH.

 

[Claude Greiner]

One thing to keep in mind is that FREE programming draws in alot of customers, but those customers don't always stick around when the Free stuff is over when they get sticker shock in 4 months when their bill gets jacked up.

The reason why Dish is getting better customers because the billing is more stable, no crazy promotions to draw people in so therefore no sticker shock in 4 months!

 

[charlesrshell]

One thing to keep in mind is that FREE programming draws in alot of customers, but those customers don't always stick around when the Free stuff is over when they get sticker shock in 4 months when their bill gets jacked up.

The reason why Dish is getting better customers because the billing is more stable, no crazy promotions to draw people in so therefore no sticker shock in 4 months!

I am more into quality. Which is the best Claude in your opinion. Thanks

 

[ScoBuck]

It has alot to do with the promotion, and nothing to do with which provider is actually better than the other!

The reason for Directv's numbers are simple, they have been advertising everywhere and giving everything away for FREE. On the commercial stuff they are giving 1/2 off programming for 6 months, and on the residential side its been 4 months FREE when you get the Sunday Ticket for $49.99/mo.

What has Dish been doing for the past 3 months? ABSOLUTLY NOTHING!

Seriously, they are running very little to no national adverising and the promotion sucks!

We used to have $10 off for 10 months, and that worked good until they took that away at the end of August.

The only tool I have right now to push DISH Network is the HBO/Cinemax FREE for 3 months, and if the customer is getting HD they get the FREE HD/DVR and 6 months of FREE programming.

As far as HD goes, the smart customers are still signing up for DISH Network, but alot of customers are signing up for Directv for HD because of all the hype and are not taking the time to do a true compairison to see that all the hype is about nothing!

I heard a nice little rumor Directv is due up for a big price increase, especially on the HD services, which will deffinitly help DISH.

Good job of creative spin - but missing many of the facts.

1) These numbers reflect the 3rd quarter, DirecTV's new HD advertising didn't start until the 2nd week of October - AFTER the 3rd Quarter. The promotion offered by DirecTV in the 3rd quarter was the same as last years.

2) In fact, it is DISH with their FREE HD-DVR, that is giving away everything. DirecTV said about 60% of the NEW subs were getting these advanced products - any those folks were paying a fee upfront for advanced products.

3) DISH has really never run national ad campaigns like DirecTV - what was different in the 3rd Q for them as opposed to the 3rd Q a year ago.

4) How is it you judge who the SMART customers are? How are you making a judgement that they are not doing a comparison?

5) Even DISH is pessimistic in its 10-Q report (I read it, did you?), while DirecTV is optimistic in its (I read it, did you?) and has had much HIGHER than anticipated demand for its advanced products.

6) Obviously business is slow, as reflected in the numbers presented Friday.

 

[Hemi 6.1]

Increased competition = Direct launch hd channels

Increased competition= Cable being able to offer bundle packs. Not just a threat to E*.

 

[ScoBuck]

One thing to keep in mind is that FREE programming draws in alot of customers, but those customers don't always stick around when the Free stuff is over when they get sticker shock in 4 months when their bill gets jacked up.

The reason why Dish is getting better customers because the billing is more stable, no crazy promotions to draw people in so therefore no sticker shock in 4 months!

Free HD-DVRS from DISH draw in a lot of customers also, and 6 months free HD as well does the same. DISH offers programming discounts for new subs just as DirecTV does. What changed in this 3 Q that was not going in in the 2 Q?

How do you figure DISH gets BETTER customers? Their churn rate was higher, and the average they spent with DISH was $66 per month, compared to $78 at DirecTV. DISH mentioned having some churn due to non-pays, DirecTV mentioned that because it tightened its credit policies over a year ago, those problems are now far less of an issue. Methinks you have this reversed.

 

[Hemi 6.1]

? Their churn rate was higher, and the average they spent with DISH was $66 per month, compared to $78 at DirecTV. .

Thats because for the average customer D* prices are higher. I'll give you an example.To have Top 200 pack with DVR with E* is 49.99 + 12.99 for Cinemax and $7 per month for HBO.,I might add $7 for HBO is not a promotion. They are calling all their Cinemax subscribers and offering this price for HBO.Plus $5.99 for locals But you have a total of $75.97 . This is for 2 rooms as well. Now D* price is as follow Choice package is $49.99 and $5.99 for DVR and $4.99 for 2nd room. Then HBO is $13 and then Cinemax $11 thats $84.97,for what is damn near the same service . Except E* is giving you 200 channels instead of 140.

 

[ScoBuck]

Whatever the reason, a couple of things stand out from these 3rd Quarter reports.

DISH is pessimistic going forward, DirecTV is optimistic going forward. Please READ BOTH 10-Q's and then make comments.

DirecTV reports higher than expected demand for advanced products, DISH reports that they went backwards due to things like competition, etc.

And this is BEFORE the results of the DirecTV HD lauch can have any real meaning.

The trend for DISH is not good, no matter the spin put on it - but let's see what the next quarter brings.

 

[mike123abc]

Someone signing up for DIRECTV in the last quarter probably did not understand the HD programming was not turned on yet. For a year they have plastered ads about 100 or 150 HD channels (of course small print/quickly mentioned to be future capacity). The ads appear to be working.

Dish lost out on 2 satellite launches, and faces delayed service. If they had their 2 satellites up now and were getting ready to launch Dish2 they probably would have had a much more upbeat looking forward message. Until they get these satellites up they are going to be hurting bad, falling more and more behind in LiL HD and national HD. Yeah they can add a few more channels right now, but then they are maxed out.

 

[Hemi 6.1]

Whatever the reason, a couple of things stand out from these 3rd Quarter reports.

DISH is pessimistic going forward, DirecTV is optimistic going forward. Please READ BOTH 10-Q's and then make comments.

DirecTV reports higher than expected demand for advanced products, DISH reports that they went backwards due to things like competition, etc.

And this is BEFORE the results of the DirecTV HD lauch can have any real meaning.

The trend for DISH is not good, no matter the spin put on it - but let's see what the next quarter brings.

I think a lot of E* loses are because of the customer service IMO. I think theres a lot of customers getting fed up with it! I'll never give my full business to E* again. They have to be one of the worst run companys in the TV business IMO.

 

[ScoBuck]

Someone signing up for DIRECTV in the last quarter probably did not understand the HD programming was not turned on yet. For a year they have plastered ads about 100 or 150 HD channels (of course small print/quickly mentioned to be future capacity). The ads appear to be working.

So, all of a sudden and all at the same time people got fooled by the ads?

Not likely.