Apple's shares have been on a tear of late, surging more than 40% over the last six months to top near the $350 mark by the end of last week -- an all-time high.
In August of 2004, Jobs announced to employees, after the fact, that he had undergone a successful operation for pancreatic cancer. He took a month off from work and had Cook -- then a company vice-president -- handle management duties. Apple's shares slipped about 8% that week before recovering.
The stock also took a small beating in mid-2008, after Jobs' gaut appearance during a keynote at the company's annual Worldwide Developers Conference sparked concerns that his cancer had returned. Apple's shares slipped about 10% in the weeks following.
In January of 2009, Apple announced that Jobs was taking a six-month leave of absence to focus on his health. It was later learned that he underwent a liver transplant at this time. The stock rose more than 50% during his absence, as strong sales of the iPhone helped the company maintain strong double-digit earnings growth. Cook also ran the company during this period.8
In a brief note to clients, Munster cited Cook's track record and the fact that Jobs has not relinquished the CEO title.
"Since Jobs is not stepping down as CEO, we believe Jobs expects the leave to be shorter and/or less serious than his previous leave," Munster wrote.
Brian Marshall of Gleacher & Co. predicted that Apple's shares will take some declines on Tuesday but said fallout would likely be limited.
"It's obviously a terrible thing for Steve personally and, the market reaction won't be kind either," he said.
He said the stock is unlikely to slip below the $300 mark, however, given that "real earnings power in [calendar year] 2011 is approximately $22-23 per share and by applying a discounted multiple of about 12 times [estimated earnings] and adding back net cash per share of about $50...that implies a floor of around $300 in my view (down about 15% from current levels)," he wrote in an email.
