Merrill's Cohen sees media consolidation

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http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/061127/media_summit_merrill.html?.v=4


NEW YORK (Reuters) - The media sector will be dominated by a handful of companies that produce or distribute entertainment, despite a proliferation of new technologies and companies vying to deliver programming to homes and handheld devices, a leading media analyst said on Monday.
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Merrill Lynch analyst Jessica Reif Cohen sees consolidation in distribution, even as new players like phone companies begin to compete with cable operators in offering Internet, television and voice services.

"There will be three to five large distributors ... there's roughly four or five large content companies, and lots of other players," Cohen told the Reuters Media Summit in New York.

Within the cable segment, Comcast Corp. (NASDAQ:CMCSA - News) and Time Warner Cable are likely to dominate, and the remaining players will be much smaller and possibly controlled by private investors, Cohen told the Reuters Media Summit in New York.

Time Warner Cable is part of Time Warner Inc. (NYSE:TWX - News).

Phone companies Verizon Communications Inc. (NYSE:VZ - News) and AT&T Inc. (NYSE:T - News) are taking the lead in building up video services and might ultimately buy satellite providers like DirecTV Group Inc. (NYSE:DTV - News) or EchoStar Communications Corp. (NASDAQ:DISH - News).

"We would expect there'll be consolidation on that side," Cohen said. "Whether its DirecTV and EchoStar, or EchoStar being sold to one of the telephone companies."

Cohen, who joined Merrill Lynch in 1994 as managing director and senior media and entertainment analyst, is among the top ranked in the industry.

WHO'S BUYING, SELLING?

Wall Street is also eyeing media sector mergers and acquisitions among smaller film and television producers including DreamWorks Animation SKG Inc. (NYSE:DWA - News).

"Would DreamWorks be an obvious acquisition candidate? It makes sense to me," Cohen said.

The two companies created by the January split of Viacom Inc. (NYSE:VIA-B - News) from broadcaster CBS Corp. (NYSE:CBS-A - News) could also be in the market for purchases, with some market speculation that either might also seek to go private.

"I think you'll see with the separation of Viacom and CBS there are things that they used to have and they don't have that they may want to build up again," Cohen said.

Viacom and CBS separated in January in a bid to appeal to different classes of shareholders. Since the split, the stock of CBS, once considered saddled with the slower-growing TV and radio units, has performed better than MTV Networks-owner Viacom.

"There's a lot of speculation (over) one side or the other (being) taken private," Cohen said, adding that she thought it was unlikely. "I don't know that there's a willing seller there."

Media mogul Sumner Redstone controls both Viacom and CBS.
 
I don't like Cohen at all, I think she's a terrible analyst, but that's just my opinion. The satellite companies will not be purchased by a telco company. VZ is building its FIOS infrastruture & AT&T is deploying lightspeed. Both telcos have agreements with the satellite companies to offer their service with the telco's DSL in the interim, as they slowly deploy TV. As well, News Corp is close to handing its stake in D* to Liberty Media.
 
I think that Dish best way in the future is to Partner with ATT and work to establish the video on demand over the internet like ATT's Homezone receivers. They already use Dish for the sat partners. Dish should partner with ATT and then they would have an internet dsl service to bundle with their programming . IT seems silly to have ATT/Dish customers and Dish customers. They should partner together and become one new combined company then the new homezone receivers would be given to all Dish customers as well. They have 2 ota tuners and can have 2 sat tuners as well. I believe they can record up to 4 things at a time. Dish and ATT seem to me to be the best fit.
 
Dish will have to merge to stay competitive. These "all-in-one" programs are becoming very popular and are cost competitive. I just switched myself from Dish (after many, many years) to TWC and I'm saving $30.00 a month over what I was paying Dish, the phone company and TWC for internet. And I get a boatload more channels and free long distance. Dish is no longer competitive price wise and content wise.
 
Well would not says its price! Thing in most cases you do get more with Dish and having everything on one bill does not always save you money. This can be very misleading at times and overall its not good to have your TV,INTERNET service, and phone tied into one thing. So overall I think Dish will do fine they might half to push more with the 2wire box which is done with AT&T. That way folks can get their net service from a telco and TV service from Dish. Overall I think they will be fine as long as they keep doing the partner ship thing for in town broadband. For those folks that live in the sticks they will half to go wild blue or something for broadband. Problem with most of these so called expert is most of them have no experience on the tech side of things on how things work so forth.
 
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