Optical Disc vs. Download: Next Chapter

[diogen]

Blockbuster beware: iTunes Store gets same-day DVD releases

Today, Apple announced that new movie releases from both the major film studios and independent studios will be available for purchase on the same day as their DVD release. For a recap, these studios include 20th Century Fox, Walt Disney Studios (which have been on board more or less since the beginning), Warner Bros., Paramount Pictures, Universal Studios Home Entertainment, Sony Pictures Entertainment, Lionsgate, Image Entertainment, and First Look Studios.

If anybody can get this boat called "download" moving, it's Apple.

BTW, Apple is not only in the BD camp, it is a BDA board member...

Diogen.

 

[ptmccart]

ISPs are talking about replacing flat rates with per-gigabyte fees

Let's be optimistic and assume that we'll manage to stay under the cap and pay, say, just $40 a month. Then all of a sudden someone brings home an Xbox 360, an Apple TV, or some other media-ready set-top box... That $40 per month could easily turn into a bill for $100 or $150.

 

[diogen]

Could it be that Warner got fed up with optical disc technology in general?

Another day-and-date announcement:
Warner Brothers To Rent Movies Online Sooner - Bits - Technology - New York Times Blog

and Amir's take on it

That is one of the most significant changes in the industry, far dwarfing even introduction of BD format. The window system has held back many new ways of delivering content. It is resonsible for many things including the fact that people overseas get movies later. Once all of those barriers are shattered, we will be far ahead of the game.
.....
From studio prespective, DVD has been great. But it has also created major leverage for a few companies likw Wal-Mart, Netflix, etc. Studios love to reduce this influence by creating new distribution channels. The above action is one step in this direction.

starting here
The Future of HDM - Page 12 - AVS Forum

 

[Zookster]

Studios are just hedging their bets and keeping their options open for as many revenue streams as possible: BD - DVD - downloads - PPV - rentals, etc. If it doesn't cost them anything to make a movie available to stream, why not? Doesn't mean they're giving up on one or the other. In time, if one becomes a big money loser, then they'll re-evaluate and "shut 'er down." I for one prefer optical, but if the time comes where it goes the way of VHS, I'll adapt and move on.

 

[diogen]

This ain't download, but an alternative to optical disc nonetheless.
Sony to Adopt tru2way, Ending Push for Competing Standard - CE Pro Article

I'm not sure this means much at the moment, except for admitting the one-way CabeCard technology failed miserably...

Java in your TV: that must sell things. Are they hinting it has BD+ as a copy protection level?

And the name should help: Tru2Way, sounds very much like Blu-ray...

Diogen.

 

[haertig]

Today, Apple announced that new movie releases from both the major film studios and independent studios will be available for purchase on the same day as their DVD release.

And if you start your download on the day of release, it might actually finish by the time the DVD has moved to the $5.99 bargain bin. You're just not going to be downloading full resolution HD movies very quickly, no matter HOW fast your internet connection is! I think downloadable movies will be only a niche thing for quite a while. People that like to watch movies on their 1-1/2" cellphone display might go for it, but not me. Even if the downloads are only SD, they'd still be too big to be practical for most people.

 

[diogen]

I think downloadable movies will be only a niche thing for quite a while.

What is "niche"? What is "a while"?

People that like to watch movies on their 1-1/2" cellphone display might go for it, but not me.

What about a 100" sceen? Not for you either?

Even if the downloads are only SD, they'd still be too big to be practical for most people.

You wanna bet against Jobs to catch a trend? Go right ahead...
Don't expect your side to be too crowded...

Diogen.

 

[haertig]

No need to get hostile there Diogen.

My point is that there are only a few people - and I'd call that a "niche" - that will be willing (or even have the capability) to download a 25Gb movie. "Quite a while" means "years and years, maybe a decade" - about when I predict 25Gb downloads might be feasible for the average person. Download services will no doubt figure out that there is not much of a market for those gigantic files. So they'll shrink them down. Lower resolution and higher compression. Then they might look OK on a cellphone sized screen. But you probably won't have too many takers on your invites to watch one on your 100" screen. That would look horrible, but go for it if that's what you want. "Not for you either?" is correct. You sarcastically say that as if you think anybody who doesn't want to watch a postage stamp resolution image blown up on a large screen is stupid. What an odd viewpoint, IMHO.

 

[diogen]

So they'll shrink them down. Lower resolution and higher compression. Then they might look OK on a cellphone sized screen. But you probably won't have too many takers on your invites to watch one on your 100" screen.

Do you have even the slightest clue what you are talking about? I will answer this question for you: NO.

1. Downloaded files don't have to be 25GB.
Evidence: XBLM (Xbox Live Marketplace)
Size below 8GB, 720p, VC-1 encode, no high resolution audio.

2. Today's compression tools are very efficient.
Evidence: BitTorren 8GB/1080p encodes of HD/BD using x264
need a professional and blown up frames to see the difference.

3. The same place: 4.3GB/720p encodes on non-1080p screen
will deliver 90%+ of the experience HD/BD does.

Those are encodes made from the real HD/BD movies!
And if you are interested how I know this - I did some of them.

All this has been discussed many many times.

There are many issues surrounding downloads and many reasons it might not succeed.
But this crap about the file either beeing 25GB or postage size not worthy to be played on anything but a cell phone screen, is just that, crap.

No need to get hostile there Diogen.

The moment I need advice what I should and should not be - I'll let you know.

Diogen.

 

[haertig]

The moment I need advice what I should and should not be - I'll let you know.

Sorry, I thought maybe you didn't realize how hostile you sounded. Since you now imply it was intentional, I guess you're right - no advice required. I humbly withdraw mine.

 

[diogen]

Another alternative to optical discs although not downloads per-se
Review: Roku Netflix Set Top Box Is Just Shy of Totally Amazing | Gadget Lab from Wired.com

It looks like they got the price structure right.
Quality is not only not HD, it's even below DVD - but I think mostly due to the bitrate concerns. The box is claimed to be capable of handling HD, 5-6 Mbps. That, I believe could be the "magic" spot where you already see advantages of HD but are not needing too much bandwidth (about 4GB for a 100 min movie).

Reportedly runs Linux, uses some heavy DRM and is this high only to accomodate the connectors in the back (or it would be just half as thick). Roku has reportedly a very active hacker community...
Just imagine this box playing any media from any network storage.

Too bad it isn't available in Canada yet...

Diogen.

 

[navychop]

Yep, that Apple III and Lisa were great successes. Not.

 

[gadgtfreek]

Well, Jobs did recently call Apple TV a "hobby". Not too encouraging. I spent a good deal of time yesterday looking. Vudu and Apple have a LONG way to go to beat a dvd/bd player and netflix. I dont see either as a replacement for media, just another avenue, J6P isnt going to network a box in his ent center to download movies. He will however, use Comcast On Demand.

 

[gadgtfreek]

Time Warner Cable tries metering Internet use - Yahoo! News

News like this wont help movie downloads take off.

On Thursday, new Time Warner Cable Internet subscribers in Beaumont, Texas, will have monthly allowances for the amount of data they upload and download. Those who go over will be charged $1 per gigabyte, a Time Warner Cable executive told the Associated Press.
Metered billing is an attempt to deal fairly with Internet usage, which is very uneven among Time Warner Cable's subscribers, said Kevin Leddy, Time Warner Cable's executive vice president of advanced technology.
Just 5 percent of the company's subscribers take up half of the capacity on local cable lines, Leddy said. Other cable Internet service providers report a similar distribution.
"We think it's the fairest way to finance the needed investment in the infrastructure," Leddy said.
Metered usage is common overseas, and other U.S. cable providers are looking at ways to rein in heavy users. Most have download caps, but some keep the caps secret so as not to alarm the majority of users, who come nowhere close to the limits. Time Warner Cable appears to be the first major ISP to charge for going over the limit: Other companies warn, then suspend, those who go over.
Phone companies are less concerned about congestion and are unlikely to impose metered usage on DSL customers, because their networks are structured differently.
Time Warner Cable had said in January that it was planning to conduct the trial in Beaumont, but did not give any details. On Monday, Leddy said its tiers will range from $29.95 a month for relatively slow service at 768 kilobits per second and a 5-gigabyte monthly cap to $54.90 per month for fast downloads at 15 megabits per second and a 40-gigabyte cap. Those prices cover the Internet portion of subscription bundles that include video or phone services. Both downloads and uploads will count toward the monthly cap.
A possible stumbling block for Time Warner Cable is that customers have had little reason so far to pay attention to how much they download from the Internet, or know much traffic makes up a gigabyte. That uncertainty could scare off new subscribers.
Those who mainly do Web surfing or e-mail have little reason to pay attention to the traffic caps: a gigabyte is about 3,000 Web pages, or 15,000 e-mails without attachments. But those who download movies or TV shows will want to pay attention. A standard-definition movie can take up 1.5 gigabytes, and a high-definition movie can be 6 to 8 gigabytes.
Time Warner Cable subscribers will be able to check out their data consumption on a "gas gauge" on the company's Web page.
The company won't apply the gigabyte surcharges for the first two months. It has 90,000 customers in the trial area, but only new subscribers will be part of the trial.
Billing by the hour was common for dial-up service in the U.S. until AOL introduced an unlimited-usage plan in 1996. Flat-rate, unlimited-usage plans have been credited with encouraging consumer Internet use by making billing easy to understand.
"The metered Internet has been tried and tested and rejected by the consumers overwhelmingly since the days of AOL," information-technology consultant George Ou told the Federal Communications Commission at a hearing on ISP practices in April.
Metered billing could also put a crimp in the plans of services like Apple Inc.'s iTunes that use the Internet to deliver video. DVD-by-mail pioneer Netflix Inc. just launched a TV set-top box that receives an unlimited stream of Internet video for as little as $8.99 per month.
Comcast Corp., the country's largest cable company, has suggested that it may cap usage at 250 gigabytes per month. Bend Cable Communications in Bend, Ore., used to have multitier bandwidth allowances, like the ones Time Warner Cable will test, but it abandoned them in favor of an across-the-board 100-gigabyte cap. Bend charges $1.50 per extra gigabyte consumed in a month.

 

[MW390]

Time Warner Cable tries metering Internet use - Yahoo! News

News like this wont help movie downloads take off.

Just read citation myself. Anybody wanna re-think that movie download theory? This country cant match the speed of other countries, so instead of building up infrastucture they RATION it. I thought only "socialized medicine" did that. Ya know, market forces will improve the product, blah, blah blah, blah blahhhh

 

[charper1]

"User will be able to monitor their usage on a web page provided "gas gauge".

REALLY? and who will trust the ISP's accounting of that?

 

[diogen]

I thought only "socialized medicine" did that.

Is it really so hard to do some 3rd grade math before embarking on this "The sky is falling!" route?

Let's talk in general terms.

1. In 2007 there were 1.7 Billion DVD discs sold.
2. Let say the world population was 3 times as much, about 5 Billion.
3. Let's assume 20% of the population bought all the discs, i.e. 1.7 discs per person.
4. Let's assume inequality among those 20%: the geeks were watching 5 times as many movies, i.e. 8.5 movies
5. In average 3 people watch a movie: 25 movies
6. Cinema makes the same amount of money DVD does: let this mean double the movie count: 50 movies.
7. Geeks watch at least as many old movies as new ones: 100 movies.
8. Geeks rent as much as they get other ways: 200 movies

To summarize: movie geeks watch about 200 movies a year, 4 movies a week or 16 a month (it's close to what I do, give or take).
This geek-ism borders with insanity but let this extreme number be our guide.

Today's HD/BD movie - 1 video track, 1 sound track - is about 25GB.
It has been said many times by Stacey/Ben/Amir, just lifting the restriction of the optical format will save at least 30%, 17.5GB is left.
Oh yeah, Blu-boys can't live unless lossless is in the spec - make it 20GB per movie.

Dropping any movie watching anywhere but in your home theatre using just download and nothing else will require 16x20=320GB per month bandwidth.
This has as much to do with reality as assuming everybody in America starting tomorrow will not using anything but public transportation...

In other words, considering a clinical scenario that would definitely ask for medical attention, we arrive at bandwidth requirements in the ballpark of available today.

You don't like the idea - it's just fine.
You like the physical disc, cover art, etc. - even better.
You live in the neck of the woods with 28.8 kbps internet at best - I'm really sorry for you.
But if you failed or never knew what a timetable is all about, keep the "impossible" labels under wraps... Please?

Diogen.

 

[mike123abc]

Dropping any movie watching anywhere but in your home theatre using just download and nothing else will require 16x20=320GB per month bandwidth.
This has as much to do with reality as assuming everybody in America starting tomorrow will not using anything but public transportation...

In other words, considering a clinical scenario that would definitely ask for medical attention, we arrive at bandwidth requirements in the ballpark of available today.

1024*1024*60*60*24*30/8=339,738,624,000.00

1 Mbit/sec continuous download for a month should cover it...

 

[gadgtfreek]

Not doubting diogens 3rd grade math skills and that they could reduce movie size if you just brought the movie and the sound, but our current internet situation (as already posted) along with caps keeps downloads from being the NEXT step. Sounds more like co-existing to me. We are also arguing about something that matter for many years, by then all us early adopters will be foaming at the mouth to try it.


BTW, if we are going to reference "sky is falling" menatlity, how about the red boys and "downloads will kill blu-ray".

I still think the movie via re-loadable flash is the way to go. More green and easy.

 

[MW390]

Diogen,

I GET your point. Not everybody at the same time is gonna want to download a movie at the same time. My POINT was, given that being true, these guys are already starting to put a governor on people who WOULD download a movie. What they are saying is we've built the network, we've got the customers. To avoid having to EXPAND technology and capacity we are putting a surcharge on the roadhogs who would actually use the Internet. My socialized medicine in quotes was about all the people saying the market would take care of the health care system and you see what we have. Nope, the GOVERNMENT isn't telling you what doctors to use, the INSURANCE companies are. Same thing here. The government isn't telling you how to use the Internet, the companies that own you connection into it is.....see? problem solved. You SHOULD be able to download a movie on demand. I WANT you to. The guys that own your connection don't agree with you and they will charge you for that privilege. Here's the real funny part. The Internet was "invented" or actually commissioned to be built by the Dept of Defense in case of nuclear war or the like. They did the heavy lifting. These guys get on board and they start thinking it's their highway.