Sony sez "The format war is over!"

[CochiseGuy]

source: http://www.videobusiness.com/article/CA6415444.html

"Blu-ray outpaces HD DVD in January
Sony plans to declare Blu-ray winner in high-def format war
By Jennifer Netherby 2/9/2007

FEB. 9 | Two movies on Blu-ray Disc were sold for every one sold on the HD DVD format during January, according to studio sources.

Blu-ray backers attributed the gains to the fact that more titles were released on Blu-ray than on HD DVD during the month and to quick consumer adoption of Sony’s Blu-ray-enabled PlayStation 3 videogame machine. More than 1 million U.S. homes now have Blu-ray players, including set-top boxes and PS3s.

“I think finally everything that we knew going into this format has started to happen,” said Sony Pictures Home Entertainment worldwide president David Bishop. “We have a critical mass of content, we have the biggest mass of consumer electronics companies in the world supporting this format. That has moved Blu-ray into the forefront.”

Sony is so confident that Bishop said the studio plans to begin marketing the format to consumers as the winner of the format war.

“The message that we’re going to put out to the consumer now is, now it is safe to make a choice,” he said. “No more fence-sitting is needed.”

In fact, HD DVD sales are continuing at a steady pace, they just haven’t grown as fast as Blu-ray.

Twenty-five Blu-ray movies were released in January, compared to 11 titles on HD DVD.

Also, the top titles on Blu-ray outsold those on HD DVD during the first three weeks of January. Lionsgate’s Crank sold 7,500 units on Blu-ray, compared to HD DVD’s top seller for the period, Batman Begins, which sold through 4,100 units, according to studio sources.

However, it’s hard to get an even comparison as not all movies are available on both formats. Crank was a new release and wasn’t available on HD DVD, and Batman Begins has been available on HD DVD and Blu-ray since November."

Over one million BD players out there (including a game machine), the top selling BD title sells a whopping 7,500 copies (just 3,400 copies ahead of an HD DVD title that has been out for months), and Sony is ready to tell consumers "the format war is over, it's safe now it is safe to make a choice, No more fence-sitting is needed."

I need to get me some of whatever that guy has been smoking . . . . on second thought, never mind; I kinda prefer reality. One million players, top selling title sells 7,500 copies . . . let' see, that works out to an attach rate of less than 1%; .075% to be exact. Yep, I can see where the HD DVD releasing studios won't want to leave that kind of money on the table. : (Hint of sarcasm here)

 

[ronjohn]

They are just trying to put on marketing spin. All companies release reports and statements that put their company or product in the best possible light. Sony is just doing the same.

Some posters on this site do the same thing posting the war is over XXXX has won, using some sales or technical indicator. I believe that when one format wins the format war, no announcement or public statement or forum post will be necessary. Everyone will know.

 

[BobMurdoch]

This just in.... The Fox News Channel has stated that the Republicans have the right idea .....

Um, in the "let's take that one with a grain of salt: department....

BluRay HAS been cleaning HD DVDs clock since Christmas BUT they've had a strong tailwind. Tons of new PS3s coming online, more new releases from their stable than HD DVD (Universal has been fairly AWOL), etc.

This week should give some better data as The Departed and Babel hit both formats and give us something real to chew on..... They are both minor hits at best, but at least we have something to compare again.....

 

[CochiseGuy]

This just in.... The Fox News Channel has stated that the Republicans have the right idea .....

One reason why I never watch Fox News.
The other reason is I'm too cheap to pay for another 59 channels I'll never watch, too move from "Top 60" to "Top 120" on Dish just to get Fox.

Um, in the "let's take that one with a grain of salt: department....

BluRay HAS been cleaning HD DVDs clock since Christmas BUT they've had a strong tailwind. Tons of new PS3s coming online, more new releases from their stable than HD DVD (Universal has been fairly AWOL), etc.

This week should give some better data as The Departed and Babel hit both formats and give us something real to chew on..... They are both minor hits at best, but at least we have something to compare again.....

Last time I saw a post about it BD / HD DVD were running neck & neck on Amazon rankings. But, as one consistent BD fan surmised - "What elese to HD DVD owners have to buy?".

I have both Babel & Departed on pre-order, and the plastic in my wallet is enjoying a well deserved rest.

And I'm not exactly green with envy at all those Fox releases on 25 GB single layer mpeg2 BD of old movies I've seen a gazillion times on HD movie channels.

 

[JoeSp]

This just in.... The Fox News Channel has stated that the Republicans have the right idea .....

Um, in the "let's take that one with a grain of salt: department....

BluRay HAS been cleaning HD DVDs clock since Christmas BUT they've had a strong tailwind. Tons of new PS3s coming online, more new releases from their stable than HD DVD (Universal has been fairly AWOL), etc.

This week should give some better data as The Departed and Babel hit both formats and give us something real to chew on..... They are both minor hits at best, but at least we have something to compare again.....

It is just not having two titles to chew on but having several titles to choose from. The strength of the BD forum is just now being felt. Heck, decent BD standalones have only been out since Novemeber. Unless Universal has something up their sleeve then the clock cleaning might continue for the next several months.

 

[navychop]

Any of those BD standalones have an ethernet port for firmware updates, etc?

 

[JoeSp]

Besides the PS3 I am not sure. I think the Sony BD player does but not the Panasonic nor the Samsung. I also don't believe the LG player does. The new Pioneer player will have that ability.

 

[boston area dtv]

JoeSp I back HD DVD and see that BD is, in my opinion, taking a lead. They just have more titles and backing.

I wish HD DVD had the backing but it doesnt look it right now.

WITH THAT BEING SAID...Having SONY come out and say "hey, we win" doesnt count.

Its like the Rams in 2001 coming out onto the field talking about a dynasty before the Pats crashed their party.

When its over we all will know. IMO HD DVD had a slight lead..I took a shot with the XBOX 360 add on..no big deal on my end. It looks like that BD is gaining momentum...but to declare either format a winner is nuts.

 

[dantheman77]

JoeSp I back HD DVD and see that BD is, in my opinion, taking a lead. They just have more titles and backing.

I wish HD DVD had the backing but it doesnt look it right now.

WITH THAT BEING SAID...Having SONY come out and say "hey, we win" doesnt count.

Its like the Rams in 2001 coming out onto the field talking about a dynasty before the Pats crashed their party.

When its over we all will know. IMO HD DVD had a slight lead..I took a shot with the XBOX 360 add on..no big deal on my end. It looks like that BD is gaining momentum...but to declare either format a winner is nuts.

you did not need to bring up the rams thing!

 

[navychop]

...but to declare either format a winner is nuts.

Yep. Even at 2 to 1 or 3 to 1, the absolute numbers are still small. What are they selling, 10 or 20 million DVDs a month, and maybe 100,000 high def discs per month? Maybe if near year's end they're selling a million a month, and one format has 80% or 90% of the market, it might be time to polish the crown.

 

[tonyp56]

Yep. Even at 2 to 1 or 3 to 1, the absolute numbers are still small. What are they selling, 10 or 20 million DVDs a month, and maybe 100,000 high def discs per month? Maybe if near year's end they're selling a million a month, and one format has 80% or 90% of the market, it might be time to polish the crown.

Like I've said around here before, that will not happen. Again, very limited amount of people will be buying Blu-Ray or HD-DVD.

Even using 1 million for PS3's, how many of those PS3's will be hooked up to an HDTV? I'd like to see that number. 50%? 10%, etc...? I doubt that number is any where near 500,000, let alone 1 million, therefore even with PS3's at best Blu-Ray has a possible, what, 200,000-400,000 between PS3s and stand alone Blu-Ray players, whose owners would want to spend the extra $ to buy Blu-Ray discs. (what would be the point in buying a blu-ray disc if you don't have a HDTV?)

On the HD-DVD side, things aren't any better (could be worse, but then again, just because one side releases more movies, don't mean those movies will get bought). Combined, HD-DVD and Blu-Ray together probably don't have 2 million users, and out of those that would buy movies, they won't run out and buy 10 a week or anything.

So, by years end, it will be just like it is now, scarce numbers that will point one way or the other, but there won't be a winner. I doubt by years end 2008 we will know a winner.

 

[JoeSp]

Actually there is probably over 1 million BD players in the hands of users in North America right now. Adding up HD-DVD users you might get to 250,000 in North America. That is a pretty big differance. And considering that BD continues to sell standalones and the PS3 continues to sell (not burning any barns down but still selling) and BD movie discs sales are capturing over 60% + of the weekly HD movie sales I would say BD is crusing.

Still after all that, this is not over. It will be over when Universal starts making BD movies. It will be over when BD has a standalone under $400. Or it will be over if Toshiba decides to bring out a BD standalone player. It won't be over just because Sony says so -- who listens to Sony anyway?

 

[CochiseGuy]

One million players, top selling title sells 7,500 copies . . . let' see, that works out to an attach rate of less than 1%; .075% to be exact. Yep, I can see where the HD DVD releasing studios won't want to leave that kind of money on the table. : (Hint of sarcasm here)

Apparently Fox wasn't too impressed either, in "re-shuffling" (i.e., cancelling) much of their March & April releases.

 

[teamerickson]

Adding up HD-DVD users you might get to 250,000 in North America.

Video Scan says it's about 468,000.

 

[BobMurdoch]

HD DVD needs to step up the releases though.... Widescreen Review had a grand total of 5 for the month. BluRay had 15.

 

[JoeSp]

Apparently Fox wasn't too impressed either, in "re-shuffling" (i.e., cancelling) much of their March & April releases.

It isn't about the numbers. It is about their reviews. Seems lately Fox has not been putting enough effort into their product. There are no cancellations, a few were moved back a few weeks at best and a few titles that were ready are being released earlier.

 

[JoeSp]

HD DVD needs to step up the releases though.... Widescreen Review had a grand total of 5 for the month. BluRay had 15.

Bob, where are those releases going to come from. Universal has not been killing it at the Boxoffice recently. Also, there is just not enough studios supporting HD-DVD to support a 20 to 30 title release a month.

 

[BobMurdoch]

Universal has hundreds of catalog titles that could be used to generate new product.... TV Shows, movies, you name it, they could be doing a lot more....

 

[navychop]

Like I've said around here before, that will not happen. Again, very limited amount of people will be buying Blu-Ray or HD-DVD.

Even using 1 million for PS3's, how many of those PS3's will be hooked up to an HDTV? I'd like to see that number. 50%? 10%, etc...? I doubt that number is any where near 500,000, let alone 1 million, therefore even with PS3's at best Blu-Ray has a possible, what, 200,000-400,000 between PS3s and stand alone Blu-Ray players, whose owners would want to spend the extra $ to buy Blu-Ray discs. (what would be the point in buying a blu-ray disc if you don't have a HDTV?)

On the HD-DVD side, things aren't any better (could be worse, but then again, just because one side releases more movies, don't mean those movies will get bought). Combined, HD-DVD and Blu-Ray together probably don't have 2 million users, and out of those that would buy movies, they won't run out and buy 10 a week or anything.

So, by years end, it will be just like it is now, scarce numbers that will point one way or the other, but there won't be a winner. I doubt by years end 2008 we will know a winner.

About a quarter of U.S. homes have HDTVs, as of the end of 2006. That's somewhere in the 25 million to 30 million household range. Only about half actually have an HD signal fed to those HDTVs, though. Mostly ignorance- but people are learning. That's a lot of potential sales to people that might want to make the most of their HDTV investment. And you can pretty much count on everyone buying an HDTV this year being pitched a high def player.

So, figure a million PS3s today, about a half million HD-DVD players, and some number of Blu-ray dedicated players. Yes, I'd love to know how many PS3s are hooked up to HDTVs also. But if, as published, 75% to 80% are getting or planning on getting Blu-ray movies, it must be a pretty high percentage.

SOMEBODY is buying discs. With Blu-ray titles outselling HD-DVD titles at least 2 to 1 today, and that gap moving increasingly in Blu-ray's favor, it's a no brainer that Blu-ray movies are popular with PS3 owners. Maybe that's how they justified the price of the PS3. Maybe the guy playing games on the PS3 is placating his SO by throwing in a movie now and then. I have "Dangerous Liaisons" on DVD now, but I know whenever I do buy a high def player, I'll be buying it again in high def.

Wild SWAG: 40 to 50 million HDTV households by the end of 2007. That's sort of the max potential market for high def players. Figure (even wilder SWAG) on 2 to 3 million devices capable of playing Blu-ray, and 1 to 2 million devices capable of playing HD-DVD, at the end of 2007. So if each of these households capable of playing a high def disc bought 4 to 5 movies, on average, by the end of 2007, you're looking at MAYBE 10-20 million high def discs sold during 2007. So it is POSSIBLE that a million discs per month could be sold in the last 2 or 3 months of the year. But I agree, it is unlikely. Things would really have to start taking off, to the tune of selling something like 10 times as many discs in December as in January.

But they WILL sell at least 3-5 million high def discs in 2007, based on conservative estimates of the number of devices in homes that can play high def discs by the end of the year. And that is nothing to sneeze at. If going in to Xmas it looks like Blu-ray has sold 4 million titles and HD-DVD 1 million titles, totals to date, AND Blu-ray exclusive titles outnumber HD-DVD exclusive titles by 3 to 1 or more- then yes, we may have the band wagon in full swing and a winner well on the way. If J6P walks in to his local Mega-Buy-Mart-City and sees 3 or 4 times the number of titles in Blu-ray as HD-DVD, and Momma and the kids are swarming over the Disney stack and crying "Please Please Please" - well, what player do you think Daddy is going to buy?

And how soon before a title is released in high def only, to stimulate sales of players- and who is likely to be the studio making that release?

This battle will likely be settled before the $200 and less players come out. And when they do, it would be unreasonable to think only HD-DVD would have them. The cost to build a player in either format can't be very different. Trumpeting Toshiba subsidizing the players while decrying Sony's rumored subsidizing of some discs is non productive. The increased cost to build a BD replication plant amounts to less than a dollar per disc over time, probably well below a dollar a disc.

Lotta IFs here. But Universal cannot carry the flag alone. Especially without Spielberg. No defections from the Blu-ray camp will equal no chance for HD-DVD. Of course, we should never underestimate Sony's ability to do something stupid and reverse their own fortunes in this war.

It's still way early. It won't still be early by Xmas. But something could come out of nowhere to change the whole picture. It's still a race, and almost fun to watch. The lead often changes in a horse race.

 

[navychop]

Universal has hundreds of catalog titles that could be used to generate new product.... TV Shows, movies, you name it, they could be doing a lot more....

Yes, they could. But so could the other studios, in both camps. My guess is they're trying to put out the more popular titles to generate interest first. But it does seem that the production capacity for HD-DVD discs is greater than that for Blu-ray discs, and is going mostly unused. Why don't they want to invest a bit and pump out more titles? Of course, there is some risk, but there is no reward without some risk.