Most analysts and Pitt fans on this board assume that the key to a Steelers win would be to simply shut down Kurt Warner and the Card's passing attack. And to look at it on face value, they have a case. The Steelers have the #2 rush defense in the NFL and the #1 pass defense. But it's not that simple....
Now let's look at the other side to see how beatable these big, bad Steelers actually are. First let's review their 2008 regular seasons schedule....
Wk 1 vs. Houston: W (38-17)
Wk 2 @ Cleveland: W (10-6)
Wk 3 @ Philadelphia: L (6-15)
Wk 4 vs. Baltimore: W (23-20 OT)
Wk 5 @ Jacksonville: W (26-21)
Wk 6 BYE
Wk 7 @ Cincinnati: W (38-10)
Wk 8 vs. NY Giants: L (14-21)
Wk 9 @ Washington: W (23-6)
Wk 10 vs. Indianapolis: L (20-24)
Wk 11 vs. San Diego: W (11-10)
Wk 12 vs. Cincinnati: W (27-10)
Wk 13 @ New England: W (33-10)
Wk 14 vs. Dallas: W (20-13)
Wk 15 @ Baltimore: W (13-9)
Wk 16 @ Tennessee: L (14-31)
Wk 17 vs Cleveland: W (31-0)
What I got from examining the Steelers above schedule is that their loses came at the hands of teams with good QB play. In all of their losses, they got beat through the air. Also, in each loss Rothlisberger got outplayed by the opposing QB....
Wk 3- Donovan McNabb: 196 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT (Roethlisberger: 131 yards, 0 TD, 1 INT)
Wk 8- Eli Manning: 199 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT (Roethlisberger: 189 yards, 1 TD, 4 INTS)
Wk 10- Peyton Manning: 240 yards, 3 TD, 0 INT (Roethlisberger: 280 yards, 0 TD, 3 INTS)
Wk 16- Kerry Collins: 215 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT (Roethlisberger: 329 yards, 2 TD, 2 INTS)
The Steelers rushing attack isn't what it used to be. In a close game, most of the pressure will be on Ben Roethlisberger to make plays. If he can't, Roethlisberger is prone to costly mistakes. In the Steeler's 4 losses this year, Big-Ben had 10 interceptions, while opposing QB's had only 1. And guess what? The Cards have a helluva secondary in Adrian Wilson, Antrel Role, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and Roderick Hood.
Everyone talks about what the Steelers defense is going to do to the Cards passing attack, but conversly I think the Steelers should be worried about what might happen to their own passing attack.
The Steelers have a proven track record of losing because of QB turnovers and being beaten by better oposing QB play. These Steelers are also a team that isn't built to comeback from being down by large deficits. If they get down early and have to depend on Big-Ben to make plays, things may get ugly.
I think this game is going to come down to the Kurt Warner vs. Ben Roethlisberger show. Whichever QB plays better or worse will decide the game.
I'll take the savvy veteran gun slinger over the Big Ox.
Go Cards!!!!