Who will win? HD DVD or Blu-ray?

[T2k]

Whether or not it plays DVD's is irrelevant.

You couldn't be more wrong on this... how can you say this?

I think it's more than obvious for everybody that without full backward compatibility (at least DVDs) Blu-Ray (or even HD-DVD, for the matter) would be totally DOA.

"DVD playback" is a must-have point on the bulleted list.

 

[Paradox-SJ]

For the first year or two backward compatibility of the disks is irrelevant.
Why would anyone pay $30-40 per title to play it on an SD DVD player?
When the prices come down, combo-disks may start making sense.

The format compatibility of the new players, on the other hand, is very important.
If I am spending hundreds (or even thousands) of dollars on a new player, I want
to make sure that it will play my current DVD collection, not just the new HD disks.

I would GUESS that the majority of us dont buy DVD's (i could be wrong) we rent them from or favorite online site or local store. So the cost means nothing to people who just rent...and I suspect that is alot of people.

 

[Ilya]

I would GUESS that the majority of us dont buy DVD's (i could be wrong) we rent them from or favorite online site or local store. So the cost means nothing to people who just rent...and I suspect that is alot of people.

For DVD rental, combo-disks are even less of an issue, I think.
Since all new HD DVD and Blu-ray titles will be released in DVD format too, those who don't have HD players will simply rent standard DVDs. No advantage in getting HD DVD or Blu-ray on the second side (or second layer) for them.
Years in the future, when HD will start phasing out SD, combo-disks may come handy - they may help disk publishers avoid double inventory.

And by the way, both HD DVD and Blu-ray have demonstrated combo-disk capability, so this is not really an advantage of one format over the other in the long run.

 

[teamerickson]

Warner Home Video senior VP Steve Nickerson said despite the format battle, Warner expects high-def players to be adopted faster than DVD because high-def will be launched on set-top boxes, computers and game systems in its first year, unlike DVD.

By the end of 2006, the studio expects sales of 500,000 standalone HD DVD and Blu-ray players, between 2 million and 3 million game consoles and 2 million to 4 million computer drives, putting overall high-def adoption on both formats at between 4.5 million and 7.5 million.

In the first nine months following the launch of DVD in 1997, 300,000 players had been sold.

In less than four years, Nickerson said 100 million high-def DVD devices are expected to be sold, surpassing sales of DVD in its first four years.

 

[navychop]

Well, there's some meat to chew over. Not sure I agree, but we'll see. 100 million is hard to believe, even counting PS3 & similar.

 

[mwgiii]

Considering that Sony is planning to ship 6 Million PS3s (which come with built in Blu-Ray) in 2006, those numbers are not high.

The question though is, will people buy Blu-Ray DVDs to play on those PS3s or just games.

 

[charper1]

They may not buy them at first but why not RENT?

Also the quote says 100M HD DVD devices in 4 years, so that would be adding up all the HD-DVD & Blu-Ray enabled devices from all makers, in PCs, laptops, game consoles and stand alones, time 4 years.

 

[navychop]

With a November release, can Baloney really ship 6M in '06?

Renting a player and a couple of HD movies- now there's a GREAT idea. At the purchase prices on some of these machines, it'd make a lot of sense to "try before you buy." I, for one, have decided any disc player I buy in the future that jumps forward rather than provides smooth fast forward action is going back. I'm not paying for a series of "freeze frames" rather than hi speed motion.

 

[navychop]

So the first HD-DVD units won't play DVD+R discs? And the HDMI & component outputs won't be active simultaneously? What was Toshiba thinking? This will be a drawback. I wonder how long before these two mistakes are corrected? And will the first Blu-ray players have the same flaws?

 

[T2k]

Considering that Sony is planning to ship 6 Million PS3s (which come with built in Blu-Ray) in 2006, those numbers are not high.

That's an old number - PS3 has been postponed by a good 6 months since, so I somewhat doubt they will sell 6M PS3 within 30 days time.

The question though is, will people buy Blu-Ray DVDs to play on those PS3s or just games.

PS3 is vaporware, still not a single working prototype exists - question is whether Sony will be able to make it 'til November or will postpone again, 'til 2007?

 

[beatboy77]

Here's How I See It....

For the last several months I thought Blu-Ray would win this battle, but after rethinking this and thinking logically, I now confidently feel HD-DVD will win this format war. Let me explain. I feel the winner of this war will be who can convert the most, "Average Electronic Consumers," the quickest, not the people like us who frequent online electronics-based discussion boards. I feel this will be done with both exposure (Selling at common places like Wal-Mart, Best Buy, Sears, NetFlix, Blockbuster, Various ETailers, etc.) and also price.

With the price of the HD-DVD Players already below $400.00 after just one week and the price of the movies as low as $18.99 I feel this will have a much larger market appeal then the Blu-Ray Players selling at $1000.00 minimum and the movies at $20.99. I can not see the average consumer looking at a Blu-Ray demo in a store and then discussing with whomever he/she must discuss with and then spending atleast $1000.00 to upgrade. Eventhough the picture quality is a decent improvement over 480p, I feel the average consumer will not justify the $1000.00 price tag.

Now on the other-hand, I can see the following scenario play out. A Husband and Wife (Or any other combination of People) are in a store and they see a demo for the HD-DVD player and discs. They will of course be taken with the improvement in picture quality as they were with the Blu-Ray and then they will see the price, which should be in the $350.00 range shortly. I think you would hear comments like, ""You know what, it's only $350.00 and it will play all our old discs as well, lets get it."

Since time is of the essence in this format war, I truly feel price is King. Also since HD-DVD will have a several month advantage to market place over Blu-Ray, we can not over estimate the importance of that.

Now for the PS3 debate. You hear many people say they feel the PS3 will push Blu-Ray over the top as the winner of the format war. I did feel this way as well at first. Then I started thinking more deeply about it. As I think about all of my friends and family members who have gaming consoles capable of playing DVD's, one pattern becomes painfully obvious. They both seldom/never play DVD's on these consoles and they do not have these consoles hooked-up to HDTV's. They tend to have these consoles hooked-up to 27" to 35" CRT TV's. They are in children's bedrooms or dens and are essentially used as a cheap babysitter. They almost never have these consoles hooked-up to the, " Family Television," area. Parents tend to not let these consoles complete with their space or their, "TV Time." If Sony is counting on the PS3 to win this war for them, I feel they have badly misjudged. There are of course exceptions to the above scenario, but lets remember, we are taling about the, "Average Consumer."

One other area which I feel will help win this format war is the area of personal computing. The HD-DVD technology is already available in some personal computers and HD-DVD is backed by both Intel and King Microsoft. I feel the blank media for HD-DVD will be much cheaper then that of Blu-Ray and once the code is cracked by some kid and HD-DVD's are able to be copied the flood gates will open to more HD-DVD sales.

It's funny how both Toshiba and Sony have gone through all of this Copy Protection research/manufacturing knowing fine well that once their CP technology is cracked, their sales will improve.

I feel this will actually be a short format war. I feel that once Blu-Ray hits the market place in June/July/Whenever is will last no more then 9 months (March/April of 2007. End of Fiscal Quarter 1 for 2007). At around that time I see Sony begining talks with Toshiba to license their movie catalog for HD-DVD production. I feel Sony will do this due to lackluster Blu-Ray sales, Stock Holder pressure and wanting to concentrate on the PS3 and PSP products.

~Josh

 

[navychop]

Are you saying their blank media sales will improve after copy protection is broken, and they'll actually LIKE that? Or are you saying that somehow the sales of their prerecorded titles will improve after copy protection is broken?

 

[Brewer4]

Unfortunately, HD DVD aint gonna win the war on the Toshiba unit. That thing is so slow and aggrevating with so many limitations especially around Component connection. I am going to use the unit since I want to watch DVD's in HD but dont get rid of your existing DVD players. And average Joe aint gonna wait to eject the disc. I almost took a pen to try to jam the thing out manually.

I keep having to remind myself to get a beer when loading the unit and getting a disc in it but I am gonna be drunk when I watch my kid. She loves DVD's and changes her mind a few times. This unit is driving me nuts.

 

[VIPERS-PIT]

Having 400+ DVD movies, I will go with HD-DVD. The idea that blu-ray marries all disks to that player scares me(and movie rental places). It will come down to who wal-mart backs. Most americans get their equipment at wal-mart. They will be the key to the winner. Go into the local walmart, there are tons of HDTV's for sale there.



(btw, It is great to see people ignoring putdown boy)

 

[navychop]

"...blu-ray marries all disks to that player..." ???

Not that I know of. The disk is passive, no player ID can be put on it. No other player would know not to play it. Or are you referring to something else?

 

[colofan]

So what company and when will a dual format player be available?

 

[navychop]

I think LG has plans, but no release date. Probably there are licensing issues.

 

[toto]

But there may be something in the licensing fees or construction costs that prevent this. The toshiba at 499 and 599 reminds me of the first DVD players availabe. The Sony 7000 was a grand. Panasonic had 2 units one at 599 and one at 799. Couldn't keep the Sonys in stock.

 

[rockhard]

I second Beatboy77's logical view and will recomend Betaray to the SmithSonyian institute of failed proprietary products museum...

 

[bidger`]

I voted "I don't know". It's hard for me to see a SONY-backed format coming out on top, but the gaming console aspect that's involved in this makes me say, "I really don't know".