Wishing on an EchoStar

[riffjim4069]

Can the number two satellite TV firm survive and prosper in the changing cable and telecom world?

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Satellite television company EchoStar faces an interesting dilemma.

Right now, business is pretty darn good. The company reported on Wednesday that fourth quarter profits nearly doubled from a year ago on a 13 percent increase in sales and a 10 percent jump in subscribers. EchoStar (Research) finished 2005 with about 12 million subscribers to its DISH Network service.

Shares rose 2 percent on the news Wednesday morning.

But the nation's second largest satellite TV firm faces tough challenges. In addition to competing with the larger DirecTV (Research), which is controlled by media conglomerate News Corp., EchoStar also faces competition from cable giants and telecoms like Verizon (Research) and AT&T (Research).

Some fear that EchoStar, despite having a solid, attractively priced TV service, won't be able to compete against companies that are offering video, voice and data, the so-called triple play.

With this in mind, there has been speculation that DirecTV and EchoStar are working on plans to jointly offer a wireless broadband data service to combat the threat from cable and telecoms. But until that's a reality, cable still has the upper hand, according to some analysts.

"EchoStar is a viable standalone but it is a one trick pony. It is very much a video story in a competitive market where cable has the triple play," said Matthew Harrigan, an analyst with Janco Partners.

There's also the possibility that EchoStar will soon face tougher competition from the two largest cable companies, Comcast (Research) and Time Warner (Research), in many markets. Comcast and Time Warner have teamed up to buy the assets of bankrupt cable firm Adelphia and that deal is set to close sometime this year. (Time Warner also owns CNNMoney.com)

The fear is that EchoStar, which often has sought to take advantage of customer dissatisfaction with cable firms, may run into trouble now that the two biggest cable companies are taking over the troubled Adelphia.

"Will the Adelphia acquisition by Comcast and Time Warner be an opportunity for EchoStar or will it make it harder to get subscribers? Adelphia has been a lackluster operator but Time Warner and Comcast should be better," said Thomas Eagan, an analyst with Oppenheimer & Co.

 

[Tom Bombadil]

Long range, it is hard for me to imagine how DBS services will survive. Who would rather have DBS than ultra-high speed fiber? Now, it's going to be a while until large numbers of people have fiber, but eventually I think a high percentage of the US population will. And if not fiber then at least some kind of cable/phone line service that exceeds what they can offer today.

I don't know how long DBS companies remain viable. I would be shocked if they were 100 years from now, well, I would be shocked if I weren't dead by then. I tend to think they will start hurting in about 5-8 years and will lose significant marketshare within 15-20 years.

I also expect Charlie to manuever his way into continued profitability. He's a shrewd businessman. If not DBS then he will take his billions into some other kind of service, likely within the communications industry, and succeed there.

 

[sA :: Shaggy]

I think thats why E* is making people sign a 18 month commitment. Once vios gets into my area and they have a great workin DVR then im switching. but seeing that im in SBC area i will never get fios soo. still kinda stuck

 

[Minsk1]

Long range, it is hard for me to imagine how DBS services will survive. Who would rather have DBS than ultra-high speed fiber?

They will survive if they will offer less priced basic packages.
Independent channel providers with IPTV (through FIOS or cable) and not FIOS and cable companies will easily win a la carte battle.
I have now in test mode several international channels with IPTV box and PQ is just as good as it was on Dish, and it is $29.99 for 8 channels instead $24.95 for two channels on Dish
Basic package of commano channels and mix of a la carte chanels or even shows canl be a future of TV. And Dish can deliver that basic service.

 

[BrettTRay]

I think that DBS will never go out of business. I think they will always be around for the rural people that can't get anything else and the people who travel and like to go hunting and camping that take their satellite with them. You can bet that DBS companies are not going to stand around and be taken just because of the triple play scheme. They will come up with some way of offering there own high speed broadband service. If they come up with a terrestial high speed broadband then the things that attracked people to satellite tv will be the same for internet, being able to travel and go hunting and camping and setting up some sort of antenna and getting internet on your laptop.

 

[Tom Bombadil]

I'm not convinced that DBS companies can survive in that small of a market.

Also I do not believe they can maintain a price advantage over the long haul.

I'm talking about what the marketplace is going to be in 15-20 years. I believe that DBS is a limited lifespan product. Once ultra high speed fiber (or some equivalent thereof) is connected to tens of millions of homes at reasonable monthly rates, it is going to be difficult to sell DBS against that technology.

 

[mb1058]

We are all a little short sighted if we think that all things are staying the same on a linear path. The old saying is "Who wins between the fox and the rabbit, the rabbit because the fox is running for it's dinner, the rabbit is running for it's life." Who thinks that wireless computing is technology that will be phased out in the future. The DBS companies will need to drive the technology to make themselves viable and in turn will drive additional markets. I believe that we will eventually see a single receiver setup supplying all TVs throughout the house, wireless from the Satellite to the receiver to the TV.

 

[SimpleSimon]

I've gotta go with the idea that the heyday of DBS is over.

The city people will go with providers that can give them more bandwidth than is possible via satellite services.

I just hope enough of it stays alive so the country folk don't get screwed in the process.

 

[sksatellite]

What I believe is that satellite company like Dish or DTv will loss almost half their subscribers once there other alter video service with same or better quality, in long run, cable or fibre optic will provide lower price and more service in one company.Verizon has been lay the fibra optic cable at my back alley, and will see how much their service will charge.

 

[TheTony]

It's evident to me that industry analysts place entirely too much focus on the allure of the so-called double/triple/quadruple play.

The biggest boost to companies that offer multiple services is simplified and centralized billing. The fact is, some MSOs haven't even done that yet, despite multiple service offerings. Competitive pricing is certainly not an obvious benefit, as seeing lowered pricing (extending beyond promotional offers) is just not the case, by and large. In fact, bundling, in my experience, is more restrictive and frustrating, from the consumer point of view.

It comes down to two things: quality and price of service. It really doesn't matter to me if I can get all my telecom needs in one stop - if I can't get what I want entirely from one provider with that quality and price, I'm more than willing to pick and choose from all my options. In fact, I do exactly that.

 

[riffjim4069]

I place a premium on customer service...I'm willing to pay a little more if the service is reliable and the agents are competent. It has been my experience that my Verizon landline and wireless services are clearly head and shoulders above the competition. I expect FiOS broadband to be leaps and bounds ahead of Adelphia...and all indications are that I can expect the same from FiOS TV.

I want both price and quality of service. I loved VOOM DBS, I like Dish Network (although the 942/622 is really great), but I am expecting to get the best quality and most bang for my buck from FiOS. We shall see. One thing is for sure...the competition had better be ready to drop their prices and (as in E*s case) get rid of all those nickel and dime fees (multiple DVR fees, multiple set top box fees, enabling fees, paying for local guide data)...especially when I paid for my Dish Network equipment and have my own OTA antennas.

 

[KenSoren]

I think the primary reason most of us are with Dish is the picture quality and the reliability of the service. The cable tv service here in Yucaipa was really bad with the system going down for days at a time so I jumped at the chance of going with DBS. Our dish service has only winked out once in the last 5 years and that was due to a thunderstorm, so I have no complaints.

FIOS will be a service based on a hard line between the picture source and my tv, so it will be open to service outages like the cable company. It will take a couple of years for their customer service reliability level to be established, so my 18 month commitment to Dish will let them have a chance to prove themselves. Then I will look at them closely and consider making the change from Dish.

 

[dishcomm]

Can the number two satellite TV firm survive and prosper in the changing cable and telecom world?

Full Story

Satellite television company EchoStar faces an interesting dilemma.

Right now, business is pretty darn good. The company reported on Wednesday that fourth quarter profits nearly doubled from a year ago on a 13 percent increase in sales and a 10 percent jump in subscribers. EchoStar (Research) finished 2005 with about 12 million subscribers to its DISH Network service.

Shares rose 2 percent on the news Wednesday morning.

But the nation's second largest satellite TV firm faces tough challenges. In addition to competing with the larger DirecTV (Research), which is controlled by media conglomerate News Corp., EchoStar also faces competition from cable giants and telecoms like Verizon (Research) and AT&T (Research).

Some fear that EchoStar, despite having a solid, attractively priced TV service, won't be able to compete against companies that are offering video, voice and data, the so-called triple play.

With this in mind, there has been speculation that DirecTV and EchoStar are working on plans to jointly offer a wireless broadband data service to combat the threat from cable and telecoms. But until that's a reality, cable still has the upper hand, according to some analysts.

"EchoStar is a viable standalone but it is a one trick pony. It is very much a video story in a competitive market where cable has the triple play," said Matthew Harrigan, an analyst with Janco Partners.

There's also the possibility that EchoStar will soon face tougher competition from the two largest cable companies, Comcast (Research) and Time Warner (Research), in many markets. Comcast and Time Warner have teamed up to buy the assets of bankrupt cable firm Adelphia and that deal is set to close sometime this year. (Time Warner also owns CNNMoney.com)

The fear is that EchoStar, which often has sought to take advantage of customer dissatisfaction with cable firms, may run into trouble now that the two biggest cable companies are taking over the troubled Adelphia.

"Will the Adelphia acquisition by Comcast and Time Warner be an opportunity for EchoStar or will it make it harder to get subscribers? Adelphia has been a lackluster operator but Time Warner and Comcast should be better," said Thomas Eagan, an analyst with Oppenheimer & Co.

I am an 8 yr sub of Dish..I like satellite but if the telecoms get into the video market and can provide the same of veen better cjpoices than satellite then that's where I will go. I hate cable. I especially despise Time Warner. I will never go back to cable.I am also a technician and I am looking carefully at the future..I am not certain I will be installing Sat systems in 10 years.....however, the Sat business may simply trasition into another use other than enteratainment..Both Charlie and Rupert have far too much invested to just let the Sat busines get run over by the cable and telco industries

 

[riffjim4069]

I think the primary reason most of us are with Dish is the picture quality and the reliability of the service. The cable tv service here in Yucaipa was really bad with the system going down for days at a time so I jumped at the chance of going with DBS. Our dish service has only winked out once in the last 5 years and that was due to a thunderstorm, so I have no complaints.

FIOS will be a service based on a hard line between the picture source and my tv, so it will be open to service outages like the cable company. It will take a couple of years for their customer service reliability level to be established, so my 18 month commitment to Dish will let them have a chance to prove themselves. Then I will look at them closely and consider making the change from Dish.

I have very few outages with satellite (10x less than cable), but I can assure you the Fiber to the Premise (FTTP) is nothing like cable. You're talking about a dedicated pair of fiber to your home versus a community shared fiber/copper network. FiOS telephone service could run for days (depending on usage) with an on-site battery should you lose power at your home and, unless you have a backup generator, you won't be watching much TV anyway. Plus your fiber network is powered from a Verizon Central Office so you'll continue to have services if you have a backup generator at home...even if there are major power outages.

 

[dishcomm]

I've gotta go with the idea that the heyday of DBS is over.

The city people will go with providers that can give them more bandwidth than is possible via satellite services.

I just hope enough of it stays alive so the country folk don't get screwed in the process.

Based on that comment, I would imagine you must live in a rural area..Yes, those who live in the hinterlands have a difficult time with access to the most advacned technology in the communications business....Satellite is the opnly way for some to have th ability to se a decent tv picture...The DBS was invented for rural areas..Primestar's orginal purpose was to deliver tv programming to those who had no access to cable.....If DBS goes away rural people will again be left out....Perhaps the busy body govt will step ina nd suibsidize sat providers ot bring rural areas pay tv service..Maybe..That means the taxpayers will have to fork over the $$ so a guy in Wise County VA can watch tv..I don't think so.....Perhaps fiber optic lines will become the norm and those lines will reach the rural areas..
The rub is when will the telcos be able to deliver tv isgs the same as cable?..Who knows..Until that happens i think DBS is safe...

 

[Ray S]

I think the primary reason most of us are with Dish is the picture quality and the reliability of the service. The cable tv service here in Yucaipa was really bad with the system going down for days at a time so I jumped at the chance of going with DBS. Our dish service has only winked out once in the last 5 years and that was due to a thunderstorm, so I have no complaints.

FIOS will be a service based on a hard line between the picture source and my tv, so it will be open to service outages like the cable company. It will take a couple of years for their customer service reliability level to be established, so my 18 month commitment to Dish will let them have a chance to prove themselves. Then I will look at them closely and consider making the change from Dish.

FIOS is beginning to establish itself in a few towns in NJ. I am of the same inclinations as you. I have an 18 month commitment too. I'll see what develops. I didn't like Verizon's DSL or there Tech. people during the two days I had it operational. Currently I have Cablevision for Broadband and may try their phone service but waiting on that too. The competition is going to make for better quality and pricing.

 

[KenSoren]

I have very few outages with satellite (10x less than cable), but I can assure you the Fiber to the Premise (FTTP) is nothing like cable. You're talking about a dedicated pair of fiber to your home versus a community shared fiber/copper network. FiOS telephone service could run for days (depending on usage) with an on-site battery should you lose power at your home and, unless you have a backup generator, you won't be watching much TV anyway. Plus your fiber network is powered from a Verizon Central Office so you'll continue to have services if you have a backup generator at home...even if there are major power outages.

It's still a new service and I think it would be smart to wait and see how everything works out. Satelliteguys.us has a forum for FiOS so that will be a good way to see how happy everyone is with thier new service.

New technology means lots of techs will be learning the hard way how to install and maintain the system. I agree - it's got to be better than cable, but I think that it needs to prove itself before I will make the change. Anyway, I've got 18 months to look it over so will see what happens.

 

[Van]

Also I do not believe they can maintain a price advantage over the long haul.

Cable cant do this

I'm talking about what the marketplace is going to be in 15-20 years. I believe that DBS is a limited lifespan product. Once ultra high speed fiber (or some equivalent thereof) is connected to tens of millions of homes at reasonable monthly rates, it is going to be difficult to sell DBS against that technology.

And cable cant and wont do this for anyone in the country either because of how much it would cost them to hook up a country mile to serve maybe 1 - 20 homes. And the rural folk are a majority over that of the city folk and have some pretty loud voices in goverment. Satellite will survive and change into something new just as cband went to ku and then dbs and fss, just a matter of time.

 

[Pepper]

Well I will stick with DBS for the forseeable future because

(1) Fiber in my area is many years away at best.
(2) when it finally is available, it will be offered by the same crappy companies I swore I would never give another dollar to when I ripped their lines off the side of my house.

 

[dlsnyder]

There will always be room for a DBS service, especially in rural areas. Increasingly people who travel will have mobile DBS arrays mounted in their vehicles, offering an alternative to DVDs. There is also the possibility that new data transmission technologies such as WiMax will completely change the landscape of TV distribution as we know it. Can you imagine 500 or more channels of content over your FiOs TV line, piped into your Slingbox, and available at full resolution anywhere in the world via WiMax? Sure, maybe you won't see full motion video if you are out at the lodge in the middle of nowhere. Then again, that's probably somewhere that TV isn't really first thing on your mind.