The Path to the World Series Starts Tuesday

Garner Caught in Backfire by Jayson Stark

"We didn't close it out," Garner said softly, after the Astros' record fell to 0-6 in franchise history in games that would have clinched a postseason series. "But we've been doing things very unusual for the last couple of months. ... It certainly is going to be difficult. But that's what we've been doing -- difficult things."


The question, though, was whether they'd just made things a lot more difficult than they had to.

And, being the considerate, compassionate baseball chroniclers we are, we won't even force you to contemplate that one. That answer is: Yes. For all kinds of reasons:

Up 2 games to 1, Garner didn't have to start Clemens, who admitted his legs still haven't recovered from the virus that turned him greener than Tal Smith's Hill last weekend. But the manager ran Clemens out there on short rest anyway -- and got only five innings out of him. Which created all kinds of trouble over the post-Roger portion of the afternoon.

Reliever Chad Qualls then marched in to relieve Clemens and gave up a game-tying, crowd-anaesthetizing, three-run, upper-deck homer to Braves first baseman Adam LaRoche. And that development led Garner into a double switch that caused him to take out his leadoff man, Craig Biggio, even though the game was tied and Biggio was already 3 for 4, with a double and homer.

An inning after that, Garner waved for his closer and most trusted reliever, Brad Lidge, with a man on in the eighth inning of a still-tied game. But this time, the manager didn't double-switch. Which, naturally, forced him to pinch-hit for Lidge when the Astros got two runners on in the bottom of the eighth. So Lidge was done for the day -- having thrown only seven pitches.

That meant Garner had already blitzed through the best of his bullpen many outs sooner than he wanted to. But somebody still had to pitch the ninth. And that somebody turned out to be Russ Springer -- a man who was sitting home retired as recently as this June.

Which led to the final, ill-fated decision of the day -- the decision to let Springer pitch to J.D. Drew with first base open and the winning run on second with two outs in the ninth, even though on-deck hitter Marcus Giles was right-handed, and happened to be 0 for his last 12, with five strikeouts. As if there were any doubt, given how Garner's day had gone, Drew promptly singled in the winning run.

For sheer drama, maybe, none of these decisions was up there with Grady Little's Pedro Nightmare. But if the Astros don't win Game 5, the impact could well be the same for a team that was never particularly interested in transforming itself into the Cubs-Red Sox Curse Kings of the Southwest.

At least the Cubs and Red Sox won the World Series once upon a time. The Astros, on the other hand, have never gotten out of the first round, no matter how many Nolan Ryans, Mike Scotts and even (gulp) Roger Clemens they've sent to the mound in their star-crossed October history. Which now consists of eight series.

So we regret to report that Phil Garner's trip to the postgame interview room this Sunday wasn't quite as much fun as that champagne shower he'd taken the Sunday before. Heck, Bill Clinton's session with the Whitewater special prosecutor was less pointed than this.

Why did he take out Biggio? Because he'd been doing it all year, Garner said: "I do it in a tie game. I do it when we're ahead. I don't do it when we're down."

But the fact is, since this Astros run for glory began on Aug. 15, Garner had taken out Biggio only once in eight previous games in which they found themselves tied after the sixth inning or later. In all the others, he either left Biggio in for the duration or waited to put in a defensive replacement after the Astros took the lead. So subbing for him in this spot, in this game, deservedly raised many an eyebrow.

"Hey, I'm not here to second-guess anything," said Biggio, at his diplomatic best. "Everyone wants to play. But it's a team game. It's time to put our little personal issues aside and just play."

OK, so why didn't Garner make a similar double switch when he brought Lidge into the game? Because Jeff Kent had made the last out -- and "I wanted Kent to stay in the ball game," Garner said. "I turned to our bench coach (John Tamargo) and said, 'Kent will be a factor in this game.' "

Sure enough, Kent was a factor, all right. Just not quite the way the manager had in mind. Kent came to bat against John Smoltz with one out in the ninth and runners on first and third -- and bounced into a game-ending double play.

Then again, if Garner felt keeping Lidge in the game was a priority, he could always have sucked it up and let him bat against Smoltz with two on and two out in the eighth. But Lidge is 0 for two years, batted once all season and voted with his manager, saying: "I wouldn't have bet a whole lot on me getting a hit in that situation."

Garner's very logical reasoning for that call: Pinch-hitter Orlando Palmeiro "had some success off Smoltz (1 for 2 lifetime). So if I designed an opportunity to win a ball game off Smoltz, I've got Palmeiro in a situation to do it."

And Palmeiro almost did. He missed beating out a chopper into the second-base hole only because Smoltz made a sensational effort to cover first and outrun him to the bag by a step.

But because the game was still tied, that set up Garner's final major decision -- whether to walk Drew with first base open in the ninth. Left-handed hitters actually hit 70 points lower against Springer (.240) this year than right-handed hitters (.310). So Garner opted not to walk Drew -- at least "not intentionally," the manager said. "We gave him way too good of a pitch to hit."

That pitch was a 3-2 fastball that was supposed to jam Drew, but instead tailed back over the plate. So Drew made yet another Garner decision look worse than it was by roping it to right-center to put the Braves ahead. Whereupon Giles stalked to the plate and (what else?) struck out. It was that kind of day.

All of this other stuff, however, just grew out of the ripple effect of Garner's most significant judgment of the day -- to start Clemens.

On one hand, the Astros had won 10 straight games Clemens had started. On the other, the decision to start him -- or just about anybody -- on three days' rest this time of year is one that has sunk many a managerial ship in many a recent October.

Over the last six postseasons, according to the Elias Sports Bureau, Clemens was the 40th pitcher to start a game on short rest. Teams taking that gamble now have a '62-Mets-like record of 11-29 in those 40 games. The record of those pitchers themselves is 7-20, with an ERA north of 5.00.

Clemens' history, meanwhile, shows he has been even worse than that on three days' rest. Over the last 14 years, he's now 1-4, with two no-decisions, in seven starts on three days' rest (counting the postseason), with a 7.00 ERA. He has averaged five innings a start -- which is exactly how many he pitched Sunday.

"My legs were trying to shut down on me," he said afterward. "About the fourth or fifth inning, my legs really got tired."

Clemens had thrown only 87 pitches when he departed. And he'd just finished off only his second 1-2-3 inning of the day. But Garner said they'd had a conversation after the fourth inning, and "he was running on fumes then."

"His velocity came down quite a bit," said catcher Brad Ausmus. "That last inning, especially, he was really forcing the ball up there. He was able to get out of it pretty quickly. But I think everyone watching knew that was his last inning."

Clemens said his fatigue had more to do with how sick he'd been last week than with that missing day of rest. But regardless of what caused it, if a team is only going to get five innings out of a pitcher it is bringing back early to, theoretically, go for the kill, what's the point?

It may be a major plummet from Clemens to Pete Munro based on pure stuff. But the Astros still went 6-3 in Munro's last nine starts. And if they were going to play one of those starter-goes-five, bullpen-scrambles-to-cover kind of games, then they were much better off playing it with Munro than Clemens.

By pushing Clemens up, Garner now has to turn to Roy Oswalt to start Game 5 on three days' rest, too -- for only the second time in his career. (He gave up three runs in six innings in a loss this July 11, in that one.)

So while Oswalt might re-enact the Josh Beckett Story, the odds are against him. And had Clemens been going in Game 5, with full rest, Oswalt would have been available in relief behind him.

Now that's out. And even if the Astros win to advance, they'll have burned their two best starters to do it -- and either have to bring back Clemens again on short rest in Game 2 of the NLCS, or go with Brandon Backe and Munro in the first two games. Neither option looks real attractive right now.
 
More On Garner...

We're here to Second Guess, so let's get down to business and begin Garner's laundry list.

1. The double-switch in the top of the 7th. Morgan and Jon Miller questioned this move at the time, and they were right. By now, the game was tied 5-5, and Mike Gallo replaced Chad Qualls on the mound for the Astros. Gallo went into the No. 1 spot in the order, replacing Craig Biggio, with Jason Lane going to left field and hitting ninth.

The problem is Garner only picked up one spot in the batting order. The last out in the sixth was by the No. 2 hitter, Carlos Beltran, so the pitcher's spot was still seven batters away. You don't double-switch when the pitcher's spot is still that far down the order. You're not gaining much, and you're losing Craig Biggio from the game.

2. Not double-switching when Brad Lidge came in the game.

After Dan Miceli walked Johnny Estrada with one out in the 8th, Garner went to his best pitcher, Brad Lidge. Can't fault that move much -- tie game, you don't want to mess around too long with Miceli.

But the last out in the 7th was by No. 5 hitter Jeff Kent, so Lidge's spot (No. 1) was now only five spots away. This is when you double-switch, because if you bring in Lidge you have to make sure he's in there for the 9th inning. The right move would have been to take out Kent, with Adam Everett going to shortstop, hitting No. 1 (or, preferably, hitting No. 9 with Biggio still in the game), and Jose Vizcaino sliding over to second.

This way, if the Astros mount a rally in the bottom of the 8th, Lidge's spot won't come up. And if it does -- well, that means they've scored a run or two and Lidge can hit with Houston leading and then close out the Braves in the top of the ninth.

Instead, neither Garner nor his bench coach recognized this need. So, sure enough, the Astros get two-out singles from Brad Ausmus and Jason Lane, bringing up Lidge. He comes out of the game after throwing just seven pitches. Pinch-hitter Orlando Palmeiro grounds out, keeping the game tied.

3. Pitching to J.D. Drew in the top of the ninth.

With two outs, Russ Springer plunked Rafael Furcal with a two-strike fastball. With Drew up, Furcal stole second. After Springer fell behind 3 balls, 1 strike, Joe Morgan -- who had a terrific game -- thought Houston should walk Drew and pitch to Marcus Giles.

Joe wasn't looking at the stats, but here they are:

Drew vs. RH: .313/.450/.593
Giles vs. RH: .282/.341/.369

Intentional walks are used too often, but this certainly seemed like the time for one. You've got 31 points in batting average and over 200 points in slugging percentage to consider. You've got one of the NL's best hitters, especially, against right-handed pitchers, in Drew. And you're behind in the count. Why screw around?

Anyway, on the 3-1 pitch, Springer threw a curveball that looked outside, but was called a strike (how would things be different if it had been called ball four?). Suddenly emboldened to go after Drew, Ausmus -- hailed as a great game-caller, mind you -- calls for a fastball, and Drew ripped it for the go-ahead single.

True, Drew had struggled in the series and had fanned his previous two at-bats -- but Giles was only 2-for-19 in the series.

4. Taking out Roger Clemens after five innings.

We'll skip the debate over whether Clemens should even have been starting, but I think taking out Clemens with a 5-2 lead was defensible. He was pitching on three days' rest, had allowed eight baserunners in five innings and was lucky to have escaped with only two runs.

On the other hand, you've got one of the greatest pitchers of all time ... or Chad Qualls.
--David Schoenfield
 
The Washburn Move

Friday, October 8
The following was written as Mike Scioscia removes Frankie Rodriguez in the bottom of the 10th, in favor of Jarrod Washburn, as David Ortiz steps in with two outs.

David Schoenfield: I think the managers have made all the right moves so far, but this could be a Second Guess. I know Ortiz doesn't hit lefties like he does righties, but Washburn is no K-Rod.

Eric Neel: Oh, good lord ... I can't bear to watch.

Eric: That's just so sad ...

Eric: Man, that's brutal; one thing I know is this: in 84 innings, K-Rod had given up 2 home runs this year. 2! You can figure he might get hit by Ortiz, but you can't figure he had anywhere near the chance Washburn did to get killed outright.

David: Overmanaging.

Eric: It was a weird move in a lot of ways ... why Washburn? Why not leave Frankie in? It was like a brain fart, a twitch ... when Washburn makes mistakes, they're mistakes up, mistakes flat; his pitches don't move much ... he's ripe for a ball in the air -- 20 home runs allowed in 149 innings.

David: OK, a quick check of the numbers and I can see what Scioscia was thinking:

Ortiz vs. LH: .250/.315/.469
Ortiz vs. RH: .326/.411/.671
Washburn vs. LH: .225/.277/.387
Rodriguez vs. LH: .213/.299/.265

K-Rod is an alien from another planet against righties (.386 OPS!) and merely superhuman against lefties; he'd thrown 38 pitches; Washburn IS very tough against lefties and Ortiz's OPS drops 300 points ... but Washburn hadn't pitched in relief all year and I still want K-Rod out there for one more batter.

Eric: I've been saying all year, and I've never felt it more than tonight, that K-Rod is the one of a handful of the best pitchers in all of baseball. Period.

If you're going gut, as Mike likes to do, maybe you don't let yourself be ruled by the numbers in a moment like this. K-Rod was vicious, and the D was right behind him, and there were no balls in the air against him, really, and the thing that can kill you in a moment like this is a home $%#@%! run.

David: So, you were rooting for the Angels ... Man, your season is on the line ... I think I'd rather go down with K-Rod than a mediocre lefty who got shelled in Game 1 and who hadn't pitched in relief all season.

Gets to the big question, though, doesn't it: When do you manage by your gut and when do use the book? Man, maybe this ain't such an easy job.

Eric: I know the job is difficult, and I like a lot of what Scioscia does (though I think his small-ball proclivity is a problem), but man, this looked, from the moment he hit the top step of the dugout, like a bad, bad, bad idea ... Put it this way, if it had been Grady Little and Boston, the guy would need security just to get to the jet that would whisk him out of town for the witness relocation program.
 
Phil Garner will survive his questionable moves and move on to the NLCS vs the Cardinals. I want to see if the Astros can shut down the Cards the same way they shut down the Braves. The Braves line up is anemic. 10-3 in favor of the Astros in the top of the 8th.
 
Houston Made it. Welcome Houston to your first NLCS.

In other news:

MLB recalls T-shirt after BoSox fans complain

A day before Boston and New York started the AL championship series, Major League Baseball recalled a T-shirt it had sanctioned because it rubbed Red Sox fans the wrong way.

The message on the shirt that drew the negative reaction read: "Hey Red Sox ... Who's your daddy?"
 

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