How things have changed

[NYDutch]

Orby wasn't a company that has been in business for 30 years ....

Most never even knew they existed.

Irrelevant... At some point the Orby folks decided the service was not financially viable and they shut it down. Dish could very well do the same thing given Echostar's precarious financial condition. Large and small companies have shut down losing services, products, or divisions regularly. Tried to buy a new DeSoto lately?

 

[Bruce]

I'm not saying you're wrong, but the churn is going to have to slowdown at some point,

It is predicted to increase for Cable/Satellite for the next few years.

they can't keep losing 200k-300k subscribers per quarter through the end of the decade.

DirecTV (company) is losing over 500,000 a quarter, confirmed here-

DIRECTV's video subscriber base (combined DIRECTV, U-verse, DIRECTV STREAM) is the second largest traditional multi-channel video programming distributor (MVPD) in the U.S. with approximately 16.5 million subscribers at the end of 1Q21

DIRECTV's video subscriber base (combined DIRECTV, U-verse, DIRECTV Stream) is the third largest traditional multi-channel video programming distributor (MVPD) in the U.S. with approximately 11.3 million subscribers at the end of 3Q23

So that is 10 quarters between the two reports , 5.3 Million gone, divide by 10 = a 530,000 per quarter average.

https://www.fitchratings.com/research/corporate-finance/fitch-affirms-directv-ratings-on-proposed-tack-on-notes-offering-announcement-06-12-2021

https://www.fitchratings.com/research/corporate-finance/fitch-affirms-directv-ratings-at-bb-senior-secured-ratings-at-bbb-rr1-08-01-2024

The bleeding doesn't seem to be slowing down.

It is predicted to increase for Cable / Satellite, not just those leaving Paid Live TV for the streaming services like Paramount + ( who is still gaining subs), but those who do not want to give up Live TV and go to YTTV instead ( who gained 1.9 Million last year).

Cable/Satellite still lost about 7 Million subs in 2023, but since YTTV gained, Pay Live TV total losses were 5 Million basically.

But the point is, where did that 5 Million go plus the other 25 Million that left previously.

Again, as of now, out of 131 Million Households here
Slightly rough numbers-
Paid Live TV 100 Million Subs in 2017
Paid Live TV 70 Million Subs at the end of Q1 2024
So, 61 Million Households without Paid Live TV

Which means, by the middle of next year, there will be more households without then with Paid Live TV.

 

[Jimbo]

Yes it will, do you actually believe when the company is losing money, no hope for a turn around, they will keep service up just so not to hurt the subscribers left?

Not how business economics works.

So, you think the minute they are not making money, its done .... ????

How many companies are currently out there NOT making money, but still operating ... plenty.

Not Making money and "Going out of Business" is two entirely different things.

 

[Jimbo]

Irrelevant... At some point the Orby folks decided the service was not financially viable and they shut it down. Dish could very well do the same thing given Echostar's precarious financial condition. Large and small companies have shut down losing services, products, or divisions regularly. Tried to buy a new DeSoto lately?

So, you too think that the day they are not making money, they will shut down that next day ....

The Stock Market has had a Ton of losing days, but I'm still Making Money.

 

[Jimbo]

It is predicted to increase for Cable/Satellite for the next few years.

DirecTV (company) is losing over 500,000 a quarter, confirmed here-

DIRECTV's video subscriber base (combined DIRECTV, U-verse, DIRECTV STREAM) is the second largest traditional multi-channel video programming distributor (MVPD) in the U.S. with approximately 16.5 million subscribers at the end of 1Q21

DIRECTV's video subscriber base (combined DIRECTV, U-verse, DIRECTV Stream) is the third largest traditional multi-channel video programming distributor (MVPD) in the U.S. with approximately 11.3 million subscribers at the end of 3Q23

So that is 10 quarters between the two reports , 5.3 Million gone, divide by 10 = a 530,000 per quarter average.

https://www.fitchratings.com/research/corporate-finance/fitch-affirms-directv-ratings-on-proposed-tack-on-notes-offering-announcement-06-12-2021

https://www.fitchratings.com/research/corporate-finance/fitch-affirms-directv-ratings-at-bb-senior-secured-ratings-at-bbb-rr1-08-01-2024

It is predicted to increase for Cable / Satellite, not just those leaving Paid Live TV for the streaming services like Paramount + ( who is still gaining subs), but those who do not want to give up Live TV and go to YTTV instead ( who gained 1.9 Million last year).

Cable/Satellite still lost about 7 Million subs in 2023, but since YTTV gained, Pay Live TV total losses were 5 Million basically.

But the point is, where did that 5 Million go plus the other 25 Million that left previously.

Again, as of now, out of 131 Million Households here
Slightly rough numbers-
Paid Live TV 100 Million Subs in 2017
Paid Live TV 70 Million Subs at the end of Q1 2024
So, 61 Million Households without Paid Live TV

Which means, by the middle of next year, there will be more households without then with Paid Live TV.

Of course, your saying everyone is losing subs ....
A large part of that is because we have a whole Generation that would rather spend thier life playing games on thier Xbo or Playstation or playing shoot em up games instead of growing up and getting a Real Job so they can afford to have a life as they grow older.
If they ever grow up.

Kinda off subject, but thats why some numbers are down, the generation that doesn't use TV, they are worse than those of us now, with No Attention span, stuck in a 15-30 second world of FB ... Instagram ... and whatever the other "Social Media" BS force feed info people use now or next.

 

[NYDutch]

So, you too think that the day they are not making money, they will shut down that next day ....

The Stock Market has had a Ton of losing days, but I'm still Making Money.

Of course it won't be that quick. More likely a series of cutbacks until there is no longer enough people to keep the service functional. Dropping program providers would be a likely first move along with call center layoffs. Discontinuing new subscriptions would be another early move in anticipation of shutting down.

 

[Jimbo]

Of course it won't be that quick. More likely a series of cutbacks until there is no longer enough people to keep the service functional. Dropping program providers would be a likely first move along with call center layoffs. Discontinuing new subscriptions would be another early move in anticipation of shutting down.

Exactly ....
My guess, once not profitable, they would be gone in about a year ...

 

[Bruce]

So, you think the minute they are not making money, its done .... ????

How many companies are currently out there NOT making money, but still operating ... plenty.

Not Making money and "Going out of Business" is two entirely different things.

Do you just glance at posts or pass over what they really say, here-

Yes it will, do you actually believe when the company is losing money, no hope for a turn around, they will keep service up just so not to hurt the subscribers left?

Not how business economics works.

No one posted what you are alluding to, immediately closing down, it is a process that a lot of failed businesses have gone throughout our history.

How many businesses have failed and abandoned the building but still have time left on their lease?

But based on your logic, they should stay open until the lease is over, while continuing to lose money, so to make the customers happy.

 

[Bruce]

Of course, your saying everyone is losing subs ....

They are, except YTTV.

A large part of that is because we have a whole Generation that would rather spend thier life playing games on thier Xbo or Playstation or playing shoot em up games instead of growing up and getting a Real Job so they can afford to have a life as they grow older.
If they ever grow up.

Painting a lot of people with a broad brush.

First I am 57 this year, worked my *** off for 30 years, money not a issue, first retired at 52, returned to work the year I turned 56, retired from the mouse a week ago, just accepted a new job with a Media Finance Group, doing the same thing I was doing previously, Media Reports, primarily on Television.

I play video games, have a XBOX X and a PS5, I can easily afford to have a life as you phased it, also my house is paid for and I was married for 34 years.

Just because you do those things and not have a Live TV Service, does not mean you are not a grown up.

Kinda off subject, but thats why some numbers are down, the generation that doesn't use TV, they are worse than those of us now, with No Attention span, stuck in a 15-30 second world of FB ... Instagram ... and whatever the other "Social Media" BS force feed info people use now or next.

Now the younger people you are painting with that brush, first my kids, 34 and 29 this year, my son has a Computer Science degree ( cannot remember which one that I paid a lot of money for), daughter is a teacher, currently Private Teaching, both make 6 figures, both do not have a Live TV Service in their Homes (never have), Son has a PS5, daughter loves YouTube, always has.

So your logic again means they are not grown up, just because they do not have a Live TV Service?

You are a tad older then me, you must of seen a doctor ( or with a family member that has) that is younger, like in their early 30s, (I have)what if they do not have a TV Service, are they a grown up?

 

[Jimbo]

They are, except YTTV.

Painting a lot of people with a broad brush.

First I am 57 this year, worked my *** off for 30 years, money not a issue, first retired at 52, returned to work the year I turned 56, retired from the mouse a week ago, just accepted a new job with a Media Finance Group, doing the same thing I was doing previously, Media Reports, primarily on Television.

I play video games, have a XBOX X and a PS5, I can easily afford to have a life as you phased it, also my house is paid for and I was married for 34 years.

Just because you do those things and not have a Live TV Service, does not mean you are not a grown up.

Now the younger people you are painting with that brush, first my kids, 34 and 29 this year, my son has a Computer Science degree ( cannot remember which one that I paid a lot of money for), daughter is a teacher, currently Private Teaching, both make 6 figures, both do not have a Live TV Service in their Homes (never have), Son has a PS5, daughter loves YouTube, always has.

So your logic again means they are not grown up, just because they do not have a Live TV Service?

You are a tad older then me, you must of seen a doctor ( or with a family member that has) that is younger, like in their early 30s, (I have)what if they do not have a TV Service, are they a grown up?

And Your now making it Personal ...

I never said anything about your kids.

Unfortunately there a lot more out there UNlike Your Kids, that really don't give a damn about anyone else but themselves .... also many of those get caught up in the Fantasy world of Games, where you go ahead an Shoot people dead and then hit the Start button and start a new game ...

Except, Real life with Real Guns, you don't hit the Start button and the person gets up and starts the game again.

We have WAY too many people out there that don't know what RESPECT is, or even give a damn.

Your Kids sound like they have been brought up right and Do Understand how life work ....

That, I am grateful ... you've done a good job.

Unfortunately, many others haven't so we live in this world where you don't know if your going to make it home today.

 

[Bruce]

And Your now making it Personal ...

I never said anything about your kids.

No, you posted about younger people, which my kids are part of-

A large part of that is because we have a whole Generation that would rather spend thier life playing games on thier Xbo or Playstation or playing shoot em up games instead of growing up and getting a Real Job so they can afford to have a life as they grow older.
If they ever grow up.

Kinda off subject, but thats why some numbers are down, the generation that doesn't use TV, they are worse than those of us now, with No Attention span, stuck in a 15-30 second world of FB ... Instagram ... and whatever the other "Social Media" BS force feed info people use now or next.

My kids are part of that generation you are referring to, I just wanted to point out not everyone is the same and they definitely have real jobs.

Unfortunately there a lot more out there UNlike Your Kids, that really don't give a damn about anyone else but themselves ....

I am starting to think there is a switch that goes off in us at a certain age, where we then start complaining about the younger generation, in the 50s, it was greasers and punks, in the 60-70s, it was hippies, etc, etc.

It is no different now then previous time periods.

also many of those get caught up in the Fantasy world of Games, where you go ahead an Shoot people dead and then hit the Start button and start a new game ...

I love video games, why do you keep putting them down?

Except, Real life with Real Guns, you don't hit the Start button and the person gets up and starts the game again.

Really?

We have WAY too many people out there that don't know what RESPECT is, or even give a damn.

And back to as we get older, we complain more about the younger folks.

I have never had a respect issue before with a younger person, never really paid attention.

Your Kids sound like they have been brought up right and Do Understand how life work ....

And there are plenty more out there like them, plenty that are not, hence the broad brush comment.

But I was raised by a violent alcoholic single mother, her two brothers were drug addicts, one served time multiple times, her dad, also alcoholic, grandmother, prescription pill addiction .

So I definitely was not raised right, it was up to me to go to school, not to get into trouble, etc.

Unfortunately, many others haven't so we live in this world where you don't know if you’re going to make it home today.

The world is no different now, then yesterday, except we hear about when things go wrong more often and news is more available to us.

Our crime rate has actually been trending down for the last few years, but that gets into political stuff, so I will stop.

 

[Jimbo]

No, you posted about younger people, which my kids are part of-

My kids are part of that generation you are referring to, I just wanted to point out not ever is the same and they definitely have real jobs.


I am starting to think there is a switch that goes off in us at a certain age, where we then start complaining about the younger generation, in the 50s, it was greasers and punks, in the 60-70s, it was hippies, etc, etc.

It is no different now then previous time periods.

I love video games, why do you keep putting them down?

Really?

And back to as we get older, we complain more about the younger folks.

I have never had a respect issue before with a younger person, never really paid attention.

And there are plenty more out there like them, plenty that are not, hence the broad brush comment.

But I was raised by a violent alcoholic single mother, her two brothers were drug addicts, one served time multiple times, her dad, also alcoholic, grandmother, prescription pill addiction .

So I definitely was not raised right, it was up to me to go to school, not to get into trouble, etc.

The world is no different now, then yesterday, except we hear about when things go wrong more often and news is more available to us.

Our crime rate has actually been trending down for the last few years, but that gets into political stuff, so I will stop.

Wow ....

Your amazing ....

Anything I say, Good or Bad, you dispute.

To me, The Sun is Yellow and comes up in the East.

 

[meStevo]

Wow ....

Your amazing ....

Anything I say, Good or Bad, you dispute.

To me, The Sun is Yellow and comes up in the East.

It's called discussing your posts.

If I said everyone who didn't like streaming is just old and because they grew up without the internet they lack the intelligence to grasp how the industry is changing, would you just agree or make your case that you don't fall under those broad claims / labels?

That's what you're doing, applying these broad, lazy (and typically incorrect) stereotypes to swaths of people because you don't like something... and then grab the victim card when engaged on the topics you're the one driving.