Blu-ray now outselling HD-DVD by 3 to 1

[navychop]

From this link we get:

"...Blu-Ray has already surpassed HD-DVD in overall discs sold, and is currently outselling HD-DVD discs at about a 3:1 rate...."

and

"...Many of Disney, Fox and Sony’s biggest box office movies will release exclusively on Blu-Ray in the next three months, likely pushing the sales separation between Blu-Ray and HD-DVD to a margin where many retailers will begin phasing out HD-DVD. Retailers hate a format war even more than consumers, and I suspect they’ll take the initiative to end it as quickly as possible...."

 

[CochiseGuy]

From this link we get:

"...Blu-Ray has already surpassed HD-DVD in overall discs sold, and is currently outselling HD-DVD discs at about a 3:1 rate...."

I'd never heard of that site before, and since they didn't provide any source for their claim of "BD is now outselling HD DVD 3 to 1", I decided to follow their suggestion and check rankings on eProductWars.com.

The chart below shows sales for the last 30 days for BD & HD DVD. They apparently use Amazon.com sales for their source. The gap has narrowed significantly over the past month; it is clearly no longer 2 to 1 for BD, let alone 3 to 1.

Even more telling are the sales rankings for the Top 5 selling titles:

#1:
Children of Men (HD DVD) Sales Rank:28
Casino Royale [Blu-ray] Sales Rank: 30

#2:
Happy Feet (Combo HD DVD and Standard DVD) Sales Rank: 25
Happy Feet (Blu-ray) Sales Rank: 45

#3:
Planet Earth - The Complete BBC Series [HD DVD] Sales Rank: 68
The Pursuit of Happyness [Blu-ray] Sales Rank: 107

#4:
The Ultimate Matrix Collection [HD DVD] Sales Rank: 80
Eragon [Blu-ray] Sales Rank: 203

#5:
Rocky Balboa [Blu-ray] Sales Rank: 222
The Departed (Combo HD DVD and Standard DVD) Sales Rank: 365

HD DVD leading the sales in 4 out of 5 top selling titles. No wonder the overall sales chart shows a much narrow gap between BD/HD DVD sales.

 

[navychop]

They reference Nielson. Also, another article quoted the Blu-ray consortium as publishing a 3 to 1 figure (ask the Pope if Catholicism is true...). I gather the actual Nielson figures are not released to the non-subscribing public for a month or more after they are released to their paying customers.

I follow eProductwars too. Your chart is not their overall sales, it's their sales rank of the top 10. HD-DVD has 5 in the top 100, Blu-ray has 3.

That site does not (normally) publish sales figures like 2 to 1, etc, nor can you extrapolate from what they provide. You can see that, as of this writing (updates every 15 mins, usually), Blu-ray tops HD-DVD in the to 10 sales ranking by 190.9 to 332. The sales ranking of the top 25 and top 100 put Blu-ray ahead. The numbers in the top 1,000 and to 10,000 show Blu-ray ahead. And the current average Amazon price for Blu-ray is $29.80, versus HD-DVD $40.40.

No, HD-DVD is not closing the gap. The gap is widening.

 

[CochiseGuy]

They reference Nielson.

Not to nitpick, but I thought it was a pretty loose reference. They claim "But Blu-Ray has already surpassed HD-DVD in overall discs sold, and is currently outselling HD-DVD discs at about a 3:1 rate", without citing any source. The only reference to Nielson is at the bottom of the paragraph "but the Nielsen sales data shows the same thing: Blu-Ray discs are outselling HD-DVD by a steadily increasing margin That's hardly the same as saying "according to Nielson, Blu-ray is outselling HD DVD 3 to 1".

Also, another article quoted the Blu-ray consortium as publishing a 3 to 1 figure (ask the Pope if Catholicism is true...). I gather the actual Nielson figures are not released to the non-subscribing public for a month or more after they are released to their paying customers.

Yep, and I wouldn't take sales figures from the HD DVD consortium as the gospel either.
The only reports I see from Nielson are public monthly reports but who knows, maybe they give weekly reports to subscribers.

I follow eProductwars too. Your chart is not their overall sales, it's their sales rank of the top 10. HD-DVD has 5 in the top 100, Blu-ray has 3.

That site does not (normally) publish sales figures like 2 to 1, etc, nor can you extrapolate from what they provide. You can see that, as of this writing (updates every 15 mins, usually), Blu-ray tops HD-DVD in the to 10 sales ranking by 190.9 to 332. The sales ranking of the top 25 and top 100 put Blu-ray ahead. The numbers in the top 1,000 and to 10,000 show Blu-ray ahead. And the current average Amazon price for Blu-ray is $29.80, versus HD-DVD $40.40.

No, HD-DVD is not closing the gap. The gap is widening.

First the price: The #4 selling title for HD DVD is "The Complete Matrix Trilogy" at $69.95, the #5 selling title is "The Ultimate Matrix Collection" at $83.95. That's going to skew the average price somewhat.

I'll be the first to admit I'm not a statistician; I hated that required Statistics course in college with a passion.
But I honestly don't see "the gap is widening". Using the broadest "Top 10,000" sales figures, Blu-ray was ahead the first week of March with around 142 titles in the top 10,000, with only around 80 for HD DVD. Mid-March Blu-ray stayed around 140 while HD DVD dropped to around 70. There's your "two to one". But currently it is Blu-ray 120 to 100 for HD DVD. How is the gap widening?

 

[navychop]

Not to nitpick, but I thought it was a pretty loose reference.

Yes, I agree. But maybe that's the most they could do without breaking some subscription agreement.


I hated that required Statistics course in college with a passion.

OK, I'm a nerd. I enjoyed that class.


But I honestly don't see "the gap is widening". Using the broadest "Top 10,000" sales figures, Blu-ray was ahead the first week of March with around 142 titles in the top 10,000, with only around 80 for HD DVD. Mid-March Blu-ray stayed around 140 while HD DVD dropped to around 70. There's your "two to one". But currently it is Blu-ray 120 to 100 for HD DVD. How is the gap widening?

That's the "number in the top 10,000" not the top 10,000 sales figures. Just how many made it into the top 10,000. There are more high defs out than make the top 10,000. And it's titles, not unit sales.

I posted it, but I think the article was, err, a bit aggressively optimistic. I don't doubt that it's gotten up to 3 to 1, but it's way too early to talk about retailers phasing out HD-DVD. Sure, he picked his words carefully, but it's clear he was trying to "support the cause" more than "report the news."

 

[charper1]

Here is another couple of posts I saw. Tiny reports but from real sources it seems.

http://blogs.pcworld.com/digitalworld/archives/2007/03/bluray_outselli.html

http://www.videobusiness.com/article/CA6422898.html

 

[navychop]

Good links. As regards the first one- I used to think one format would have been better. But it would have to have been a format with Toshiba in the lead, using the higher capacity of Blu-ray. Best of both worlds. If Sony would have dominated, we'd have watered down HD like their first 25 GB releases. The only way we have better Blu-ray today is because of Toshiba.

Sony, if it was the only format to start with, would put out such pathetic quality that it would never have been enough of an improvement over DVD that it could have succeeded as a format. That is one company that needs a thorough housecleaning, starting at the top, to rid themselves of bad decision makers. Their strategic vision is flawed.

Yes, I still believe they will win this one. But if they don't radically change course, and start respecting their customers, this may be their last hurrah.

Please excuse my anger.

 

[navychop]

Well, Blu-ray better win. I was just given Casino Royale on Blu-ray. I now have two Blu-ray discs and no player. If this keeps up, I may have to rent one.

 

[JoeSp]

Navychop, just go ahead and buy a PS3. If you act fast you can get the 20GB for $499. I hear that Gamestop/EB is going to start up their PS2 exchange for a $100 off for a PS3 again. That might be a good get for you. Besides Casino on BD is HOT!

 

[navychop]

I'm not a gamer.

Game console in living room has low WAF.

I'm not happy with that 4 letter "S" word on the case.

I'd prefer to have a player I can control with my Harmony 880.

I'm not convinced that the PS3 has the hardware to support the PIP/POP features, etc, of the October BD-java specs.

If I DID buy a PS3, it would be the 60GB/wireless version.

And last, but not least: I just came from the dentist after part of a tooth fell off today while flossing. I will be getting almost $6,000 worth of work (after insurance) over the next month or so.

Thanks all the same. I'm out of the game for a while.

 

[CochiseGuy]

I'm not a gamer.

Game console in living room has low WAF.

I'm not happy with that 4 letter "S" word on the case.

I'd prefer to have a player I can control with my Harmony 880.

I'm not convinced that the PS3 has the hardware to support the PIP/POP features, etc, of the October BD-java specs.

If I DID buy a PS3, it would be the 60GB/wireless version.

And last, but not least: I just came from the dentist after part of a tooth fell off today while flossing. I will be getting almost $6,000 worth of work (after insurance) over the next month or so.

Thanks all the same. I'm out of the game for a while.

Ouch! Take care of those teeth, buddy.

I enjoy debating the merits of high def formats with you, sorry to hear of your misfortune. If there's anything worse than going to the dentist, it giving him/her a sizable chunk of change.

As much as an HD DVD supporter I am, in those crazy moments when I consider going 'format neutral', my thinking is similar to yours. I'm not a gamer, so besides no DVD up conversion, need to upgrade equipment for HDMI, the PS3 is a no-go for me.

Hopefully when you recuperate from those dentist bills, HD DVD will have those will have those cheap Chinese players to entice you or, worse case (for me), Blu-ray will have figured out how to do that too.

 

[JoeSp]

Ouch! Man, I hope you have a very good dentist. It is a good thing you have insurance to cover some of the damage. If it is real serious check out your health insurance. Maybe your problem can be covered some by health insurance. Good Luck!

 

[navychop]

Thanks, both of you.

I think he's good. I know he's raking in the money. Judging by the equipment changes in his office, he must be raking it out pretty fast, too.

I actually have 2 dental insurance policies, not sure how that will work out. Neither is his billing clerk. Most likely case is the worst case, just shy of $6,000 out of my pocket. Best case might be a couple thou less. It's a matter of taking care of some upcoming problems along with the current one, at the same time, to present a better "cosmetic" appearance (six front teeth). Not that I care, but my wife does. And better to get it all over at once, than to drag it out over a couple of years.

But the suddenness of it was a real shock. This will knock back some home improvements we planned by a year or two.

On the plus side, I'll put it on my credit card and rack up some rewards points. :river

 

[navychop]

Correction

My title is incorrect, as the source stating that sales ratio is wrong. Per Nielson (thanks, teamerickson) the correct ratio is 100 to 42.13 or 2.37 to 1, as of 3/28/07.

Growing, perhaps, but not that fast. It's gonna be a long year.

 

[navychop]

Look at the Disney ad on page 5 of this link for the below. Published in late March. They also project over 3 times the number of Blu-ray players over HD-DVD players by the end of the year, for about 11 million players total, sold.

Then look on page 10, top.

Not "new" news, but it will be interesting to see how close or far off the mark they are.

On edit: Forgot to add the second item, the pie chart. Something like 49% was Blu-ray exclusive studios, 77% of the total is Blu-ray producing studios. Universal, at 11.3, has a long row to hoe. DVD, granted, but an indication of the total for high def.

 

[navychop]

OK- OFF TOPIC POST

But I wanted to do a follow up on other off topic comments we made earlier.

Today I received a call from my Dentist's office. Insurance came thru. Both are now maxed out for the year, but my actual total cost for my dental work (which came out well) is now just over $3,000, down from just below $6,000.

Whew! Maybe I'll be shopping those Fourth of July sales after all! Or I might buy a scooter. Probably not both.

 

[Jamey K]

Insurance hasn't caught up with Dentists or eyeware enough for me. I appreciate that I can co-pay for Flonase but I'd rather have better coverage for the emergancy extraction or lost crown.

Glad to see things working out for you.

 

[JohnC]

HD DVD Closing the Gap

I am neutral and have not purchased either format. This weeks figures show Blu-ray now only outselling HD DVD by 58 to 42%. Amazon had the Toshiba A2 HD DVD player as it's #3 best selling DVD player today with no Blu-Ray in the top 25. Recent sales figures for the PS3 are steadily falling and it certainly appears that Blu-Ray has peaked. Sony jump started the Blu-ray with the $599 PS3. However, I do not see any Blu-ray players for less than $599 and Tiger Direct is selling the A2 for $249 with the 5 free HD DVD deal. If this price difference continues, it certainly appears that the HD DVD will be the winner. If $249 Blu-ray players appear, then it could be a real horse race. I expect a winner to be apparent by the Christmas shopping season and would certainly like for the "winner" to be in my Christmas stocking.

 

[navychop]

Over by Xmas would be great- & I still have hope it will be so.

I kinda lost a lot of wind from my sails when it became clear just how few HD titles are sold each month. In a few months, after more titles are released, more fully functional BD players come out, and maybe sales build up, the real race may begin. Cheaper BD players may come out late summer. And then they'll duke it out big time.

Right now, so little is selling it won't be a drop in the bucket compared to next year's sales. Certainly not enough to really indicate a winner yet, IMHO.

We'll see. I can wait. Like most folks, I don't want to spend money I'll regret in a year, even if it's only $250. I'm enamored of the technology, but I must admit I don't watch many movies. Yet I've come to own 3 BD titles already. I figure BD is here to stay, and the real question is will HD DVD stick around. But I'm not absolute in that belief.

Will it be a betamax vs VHS? 33 RPM vs 45 RPM? Or SACD vs DVD-audio?

 

[jmd102354]

I However, I do not see any Blu-ray players for less than $599 and .

New Sony Blu Ray = $499.00