Has everyone read the HiHD article about an interview with Universal's Craig Kornblau and The Digital Bits piece about Universal's executive vp of marketing Ken Graffeo's comments. This war is over the minute Universal goes neutral. Kornblau and Graffeo both know that. I would be interested in hearing the HD-DVD supporter view of these comments made by both men. You could read into the situation whatever you want by their comments. Being a blu supporter, I am buying into all said by Scott Hettrick at HiHD and Bill Hunt at TDB.
Blog: HD DVD: Fight or Quit (Preferably Quit)
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I'll bit, although I consider myself more of "Two Competing HD Formats" Supporter. First, there's no comparison between Bill Hunt & Scott Hettrick. While I'm no fan of Bill Hunt (I think he has a way too inflated ego, among other things) I think his support of Blu-ray really is based on his faulty thinking that we can have only one format for HD disc to be successful. Hettrick is just a paid professional, paid to write what his BD backers want him to say.
From posts of "Insiders" on the AVSforum and Blu-ray.com, apparently a major attempt mas made this summer by major BD backers to entice Universal to go neutral with "generous incentives". Uni held firm to HD DVD only. A lot of folks in the industry are really PO'd, and the attack piece by Hettrick was only the first retaliatory shot. Hunt is spinning details to support his position.
Bottom line, the "format war" (I prefer "format competition") goes on, and I'm really happy it is - for 2 main reasons:
1- The Unknown: A major part of the BD format is BD+, and no one but developers know what it will do or can do. We do know it includes executable code on BD discs that the player will have to run. A certain major backer of BD has a history of putting executable code on discs that altered the consumer's equipment without their knowledge or permission. I think I'd like to know a little more details about BD+ before singing Kum Bai Ya and embrace BD as our one & only HD format.
2- Prices: The competition between HD DVD & BD have clearly lowered prices on hardware & software much faster than had there be no competition. There's a few sentences in Hettrick's piece that gives you insight into the BDA thinking of where prices should be:
(CE manufacturers are no small exception since they were among the primary groups driving the introduction of hi-def discs in order to restore the profit into their business that long ago evaporated with $49 DVD players from China. The format war has already forced some manufacturers to start subsidizing their hi-def players.)
Translation: Sony & Panasonic are NOT happy at having to price players at $499 & $599 already.
Bottom line, the "format war" (I prefer "format competition") goes on, and I'm really happy it is - for 2 main reasons:
I like that- "format competition." I may steal it.
1- The Unknown: A major part of the BD format is BD+, and no one but developers know what it will do or can do. We do know it includes executable code on BD discs that the player will have to run. A certain major backer of BD has a history of putting executable code on discs that altered the consumer's equipment without their knowledge or permission.
Ain't it the truth. Really makes me hate to buy anything from the baloney company. This memory may bring me back to earth, but I still want the technically superior format to win. We MIGHT be with this format for many years. Think- if this is "IT" for the next 20 years, maybe it better have the most expandable one.
I think I'd like to know a little more details about BD+ before singing Kum Bai Ya and embrace BD as our one & only HD format.
Yes, if BD+ does not work, at least for the first few years, many will rejoice- and see the # of title releases go down. We NEED this to work, for us to get our hands on titles. Never mind the backing it up and watching it on our wristwatches bit.
2- Prices: The competition between HD DVD & BD have clearly lowered prices on hardware & software much faster than had there be no competition. There's a few sentences in Hettrick's piece that gives you insight into the BDA thinking of where prices should be:
(CE manufacturers are no small exception since they were among the primary groups driving the introduction of hi-def discs in order to restore the profit into their business that long ago evaporated with $49 DVD players from China. The format war has already forced some manufacturers to start subsidizing their hi-def players.)
Translation: Sony & Panasonic are NOT happy at having to price players at $499 & $599 already.
Yep. They'll cut their own throats for a dollar, give the chance. But the format competition (
IMHO.
What will slow HD disc adoption is HDTV sales or lack of. It is projected that by the end of 2008, there might be 30% penetration in the US. Of course less than that will even have any kind of HD signal.
Here is what Sony insider said about Sony using BD+ two days ago
(keep in mind, BD+ was reported finished and ready to be used a while ago):
"We will not release a BD+ title without completing a thorough test of it, no surprise there.
BD+ is not our immediate priority, so we do not have a timeline for completing our evaluation."
Industry Insiders Master Q&A thread III: ONLY Questions to Insiders - AVS Forum
In layman terms (and this is my guess) "Don't hold you breath".
And there is an almost unanimous understanding that FOX - the most paranoid studio there is -
is waiting for BD+ (what and when was their last BD released).
If not, they must be thinking about jumping the BD ship...
I wouldn't be surprised if BD+ ends up a disaster... if ever used, that is.
Diogen.
(keep in mind, BD+ was reported finished and ready to be used a while ago):
"We will not release a BD+ title without completing a thorough test of it, no surprise there.
BD+ is not our immediate priority, so we do not have a timeline for completing our evaluation."
Industry Insiders Master Q&A thread III: ONLY Questions to Insiders - AVS Forum
In layman terms (and this is my guess) "Don't hold you breath".
And there is an almost unanimous understanding that FOX - the most paranoid studio there is -
is waiting for BD+ (what and when was their last BD released).
If not, they must be thinking about jumping the BD ship...
I wouldn't be surprised if BD+ ends up a disaster... if ever used, that is.
Diogen.
Over a year ago Joe Kane had this to say about BD:Translation: Sony & Panasonic are NOT happy at having to price players at $499 & $599 already.
"It is my personal belief, that Blu-Ray is all about greed".
You might still read and hear it:
Joe Kane talks about the battle of the formats
Diogen.
Although I don't really see this as a real war but a perceived one on new technologies there is definately a consumer war going on here. And most of us have picked a 'side' and support it sometimes furiously (myself included). And we all have our reasons -- one reason is price and versitility -- HD-DVD players and combo discs. (I did not meantion iHD because I have yet to read a post where someone said I purchased this player mainly because of iHD) Another reason is choice and future expandablity of format -- BD players and studio support.
The reasons of who the main players are in each camp is weak with the respect to one player -- Microsoft. They do not care about a disc based HD format at all. They are only hoping to confuse the matter till VOD of downloadable HD content is viable in this country. And Scott's article points out that Universal is tied into that concept with M$ and M$'s money. He also has pointed out that several BD manufacturers have tried to match M$ money and get Universal to go nuetral. Universal has also stated that they are working with M$ to get downloadable HD-VOD working, perhaps hoping to get a nice slice of that pie. I believe that to support HD-DVD is to support M$'s posistion that there is not a need for a HD disc based system for movies. I for one prefer to own my movies and not pay everytime I want to watch a favorite again and again.
Bill and his crew picked the BD format to win the majority of consumers over the long haul. And by disc sales alone he so far is right on that. We are now seeing a shift in standalone sales as some retailers are reporting that even with Toshiba's lowering of HD-DVD prices BD standalones are starting to make ground and in some cases are surpassing weekly and monthly sales figures. In addition BD has more features coming, BD-Java, DTSHD-MASTER support, BD+ security, BD-Live. While HD-DVD has already fleshed out their format (and I have in the past saluted them for that) it appears that the HD-DVD crowd is not that interested in those features (iHD) since the lastest movie "300" lauded by the HD-DVD camp because of the iHD features could not move over that 35% barrier in sales to BD that has been there basically since the real lauch of BD in November '06.
I think that as long as Universal holds out to supporting only HD-DVD then you are going to see a continuation of the consumer war with BD getting a larger and larger share of the pie. Nobody here wants to talk about HD-DVD's assault in June and July with lower cost players, 5 free discs and a release ratio of 5 to 1 over BD for those months. And what did they get - a slight one week bump up to $40% in discs sales and then back to 35% and some weeks as low as 32%. I don't know about you but in business we say they are coming in a solid second with no chance of moving to first.
Also the gorilla in the room is being ignored completely. The PS3 is driving BD disc sales and to ignore its place here is to be ignorant of what the PS3 can do. It is a great BD player and was the first BD player upgradable by ethernet on the market. It also supports HDMI1.3 and so far has shown upgradablity to anything Sony wants it to do. If it can also decode DTSHD-Master and playback BD-Java then it will have been a great purchase for all those who like myself chose it for their first BD player. This gorilla is outselling Toshiba's standalones by itself approaching 4 million sold in the USA. You cannot ignore this simply because it also plays games. Mine is being using used 90% of the time as a BD player and I bet there are many PS3s being used just like mine.
As a consumer war I see BD always being in first and HD-DVD being in second. But there are some real questions that can change all that. First, it does not make any differance if other manufacturer's (like Onkyo and Chinese) make HD-DVD standalones. In order for HD-DVD to grow they must have more studio support -- period. Without that people are going to buy a BD player because that is where the movies are. Second, in order for BD to be the only HD disc based format Universal is going to have to at least go format nuetral. Unless their parent company interceeds I don't see that happening. Either of these happen and you will see an immediate swing in current sales numbers. Nothing happens and we will have to be happy with two formats existing. Right now -- nothing is what is going on.
Seems there now are no more secrets. We now know Universal's real reasons for supporting HD-DVD only. Want downloadable HD VOD -- support HD-DVD. Want to own your movies on HD disc-- support BD. And if you do not think there is alot of money at stake for everyone on the table and just not the BD crowd then you better take off your blinders.
The reasons of who the main players are in each camp is weak with the respect to one player -- Microsoft. They do not care about a disc based HD format at all. They are only hoping to confuse the matter till VOD of downloadable HD content is viable in this country. And Scott's article points out that Universal is tied into that concept with M$ and M$'s money. He also has pointed out that several BD manufacturers have tried to match M$ money and get Universal to go nuetral. Universal has also stated that they are working with M$ to get downloadable HD-VOD working, perhaps hoping to get a nice slice of that pie. I believe that to support HD-DVD is to support M$'s posistion that there is not a need for a HD disc based system for movies. I for one prefer to own my movies and not pay everytime I want to watch a favorite again and again.
Bill and his crew picked the BD format to win the majority of consumers over the long haul. And by disc sales alone he so far is right on that. We are now seeing a shift in standalone sales as some retailers are reporting that even with Toshiba's lowering of HD-DVD prices BD standalones are starting to make ground and in some cases are surpassing weekly and monthly sales figures. In addition BD has more features coming, BD-Java, DTSHD-MASTER support, BD+ security, BD-Live. While HD-DVD has already fleshed out their format (and I have in the past saluted them for that) it appears that the HD-DVD crowd is not that interested in those features (iHD) since the lastest movie "300" lauded by the HD-DVD camp because of the iHD features could not move over that 35% barrier in sales to BD that has been there basically since the real lauch of BD in November '06.
I think that as long as Universal holds out to supporting only HD-DVD then you are going to see a continuation of the consumer war with BD getting a larger and larger share of the pie. Nobody here wants to talk about HD-DVD's assault in June and July with lower cost players, 5 free discs and a release ratio of 5 to 1 over BD for those months. And what did they get - a slight one week bump up to $40% in discs sales and then back to 35% and some weeks as low as 32%. I don't know about you but in business we say they are coming in a solid second with no chance of moving to first.
Also the gorilla in the room is being ignored completely. The PS3 is driving BD disc sales and to ignore its place here is to be ignorant of what the PS3 can do. It is a great BD player and was the first BD player upgradable by ethernet on the market. It also supports HDMI1.3 and so far has shown upgradablity to anything Sony wants it to do. If it can also decode DTSHD-Master and playback BD-Java then it will have been a great purchase for all those who like myself chose it for their first BD player. This gorilla is outselling Toshiba's standalones by itself approaching 4 million sold in the USA. You cannot ignore this simply because it also plays games. Mine is being using used 90% of the time as a BD player and I bet there are many PS3s being used just like mine.
As a consumer war I see BD always being in first and HD-DVD being in second. But there are some real questions that can change all that. First, it does not make any differance if other manufacturer's (like Onkyo and Chinese) make HD-DVD standalones. In order for HD-DVD to grow they must have more studio support -- period. Without that people are going to buy a BD player because that is where the movies are. Second, in order for BD to be the only HD disc based format Universal is going to have to at least go format nuetral. Unless their parent company interceeds I don't see that happening. Either of these happen and you will see an immediate swing in current sales numbers. Nothing happens and we will have to be happy with two formats existing. Right now -- nothing is what is going on.
Seems there now are no more secrets. We now know Universal's real reasons for supporting HD-DVD only. Want downloadable HD VOD -- support HD-DVD. Want to own your movies on HD disc-- support BD. And if you do not think there is alot of money at stake for everyone on the table and just not the BD crowd then you better take off your blinders.
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It's ALL about greed. Universal and its parent must be banking on something else (HD-VOD) because they are losing potential sells by not being format neutral. Whatever they are banking on must be big. As I have read here and other places, I also believe that M$ is covering Universal's losses in not selling BD and telling them they will have their part in HD downloads when it comes in. With M$, it's not just about greed, it's about power. To use a Star Wars analogy, think of M$ as Palpatine. This is all good stuff for an amateur conspiracy theorist like myself
I just watched the Joe Kane video and his statement you quoted above was all based on his false belief that Sony and BD would only use MPEG-2 as their codec and thus would use an inferior codec to AVC or VC-1 and then must just be jumping into the market to prey on the unsuspecting. As we all know now, BD discs are coded using MPEG-2, MPEG-4, AVC, and VC-1 and maybe others. I don't know codecs from a hole in the ground, but it seems to me Joe Kane's presumption was the basis for his greed statement. I am sure he would qualify that statement today by saying like I said earlier above that it is ALL about greed.
We haven't buried the HD optical formats yet and you are talking about HD VOD.
HD/BD is 1% of the DVD market and XBL (HD download, not VOD yet) is probably few percent of HD/BD.
The alternatives to HD/BD at the moment are practically non-existent.
If BD/HD are dead tomorrow, how long will it take for HD VOD to go mainstream? I think years.
I believe there is some "incentive" money going Uni's way from Toshiba and Microsoft and some loss-sharing between Tosh and MS. So what?
Same applies to BD: up untill very recently (maybe still) Sony is manufacturing BD discs for all BD studios
and caps the price they pay (same with blue lasers for BD player manufacturers).
Did all the BD-exclusive studios see "the writing on the wall" before they became exclusive?
Isn't Sony dropping the "trojan horse" PS3 price to meet certain targets it promissed its BD partners?
Toshiba is making money on PS3 (Cell processor), while Sony is in a $2b+ hole! And the more PS3 sold, the more Toshiba makes!
Toshiba could be making enough - off the PS3 - to subsidize its HD player business (and maybe even keep Uni exclusive). Ironic, isn't it?
Diogen.
So What? Do you think this format war continues for long if Universal goes neutral? Of course money is changing hands all around for favors. If fortunes were reversed, I would say the same thing about BD and would probably have an HD-DVD player in my house instead of a PS3.
Universal is a going concern out to make money. Period. If they knew they could make more money selling BD, wouldn't they? Their only allegiance to Toshiba and Microsoft is the almight dollar. Microsoft's coffers are almost bottomless but will they too see the writing on the wall when BD sales are 3:1, 4:1, or 5:1 to HD-DVD? Or will they pay anything to keep this format war alive so people stay on the fence and don't buy either? Years go by and no end in sight for format war then here comes HD VOD that Microsoft will champion and try to kill both blu-ray and HD-DVD. Microsoft is the villain in this show.
I ramble sometimes but I do enjoy a good back and forth, diogen. All in fun remember.
HD VOD is simply something the vast majority of us will not see in the next 10 years. Not in real time, anyway. Too few people with robust enough broadband connections, and even fewer able to set something functional up. Now, a simple to use box that downloads a 2 hour HD movie over several hours- that's something we'll see. But I daresay that's not what M$ is after.
Hmmm... Probably not for long.
Do you think this format war continues for long if any of the BD exclusives go neutral?
Sony stops manufacturing PS3? Microsoft buys Fox?
Point is, what does those scenario mean?
Strange, making money for a business is OK.
But as soon as MS is one of the players, it's a villain. Why such double standard?
Fine by me, I'm game.I ramble sometimes but I do enjoy a good back and forth, diogen. All in fun remember.
I'm a bit tired of some of the cliche's BD supporters sometimes use...
But I'm getting used to it.
Diogen.
We need another order of magnitude jump in speed.
It might not happen - just like you said - in the next 10 years, but I wouldn't bet on it.
If /when this happens, there will be another "unbreakable" DRM invented and the studios will bite again...
And this time it might even work. MS and Sony will be on the same side with all the studios.
It just won't sell...
Just before the DVD took off, Sony assembled a team of "thinkers" to plot the strategy for audio after CD.
Their conclusion was: "Everything" that can be sold is already recorded. It is just a matter of selling the same stuff
over and over again... How many of the numerous "Top 100 songs of all time" tables have songs written this century? After the 70's?
Don't remember where I read this, it's been a while.
And so it goes...
Diogen.
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M$ is the villain because I believe they have an alterior motive for backing HD-DVD. Like I said before, I believe they don't want either format to take hold. They want the "war" to continue. This, of course, is only my opinion; but one held by more than me.
Patronizing me now. I thought that tact would be below you, but I guess I thought wrong. Sorry to see that. Keep hope alive for Toshiba, Universal, and Microsoft. I will continue to do the same for Sony, Panasonic, Pioneer, Samsung, Phillips, Sharp, Disney, Fox, Lionsgate , Sony(again) and the BDA. Do you like the "Keep hope alive" cliche?
But they don't want that for the sake of just having a war going, do they?
They want this to maximize their profits (switch from hidef optical to download/VOD) or minimize others (Sony & Co.)
Sounds like a business decision to me, no? Why is this motive ulterior?
Not at all.
What I said applied to other posters, here and on other forums talking about this war.
If you have some time to kill, read this
Latest HiDef DVD News - AVS Forum Archive 2&
This is where the "war" talk actually started, 3+ years ago. Before the studios took sides, journalists sold out to the highes bidder, mainstream media had hardly a clue, hopes to unify the formats were still high, etc. The bandwidth limitation of HD hasn't been known yet. PS3 was still planned with 2 HDMI, 3 ethernet (router function) and 10 USB ports.
The first 200-300 pages or so have all the arguments BD supporters use today. Technical specs have changed, but not the philosophy.
And the linked thread is the first of seven (!) talking just about this war.
I'll pick "alive" over "dead" any time of the day. And night.
This is probaly the reason I'm not a fan of BD that sees its job #1 to kill HD.
Diogen.
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Sony wants a HD format to survive and they want that format to be Bd. It now seems that both M$ and Universal are more interested in HD VOD. Sure we need another magnitude in speed (already there in some places in Europe and Asia) but this means that Universal is not all that interested in HD-DVD either. This might explain their lower standards in the last 3 months on HD-DVD titles. They used to be top dog in PQ and Audio -- now that title goes to Sony and Buena Vista -- they are now putting out titles rated the highest avg in PQ and all of them have a lossless sound codec --at least PCM.
No, the war started as soon as M$ walked into the room. Without M$ there would have been a deal and we would of had only one format right now. Sony did not force this -- M$ did.
No, the war started as soon as M$ walked into the room. Without M$ there would have been a deal and we would of had only one format right now. Sony did not force this -- M$ did.
Oh please......
Sony sabotaged unification efforts at every turn, just as they have always done.
It sticks in their craw that the lion's share of the royalties went to Toshiba in the DVD spec, and they were determined to flip that this time. Nevermind that similar tactics failed with Beta, Minidisc, SA-CD, the list goes on and on .....
HD DVD wins in usability hands down with better interactivity capabilities, combo disks that can be played in either standard or HD DVD players, and a lack of region coding that enables you to buy any disc from any region with NTSC disks.
The only advantage for BluRay is slightly larger capacity and the hammer that was supposed to be the PS3 ensuring the format's success. GTA4 is lost for this year, Madden 08 is reviewed by numerous outlets as running more sluggish on a PS3 vs. the 360, Metal gear Solid will lose its exclusivity next (HMV had to backpedal when they announced it before they were supposed to), and Halo 3 and Mass Effect will steal more of the hardcore gamers they assumed were theirs. Meanwhile Wii will pass them both (although 3rd party support for the Wii is still remarkably scarce) this week or next.
I agree that BluRay still has the upper hand as Disney, Sony, and Fox try and ram it through with sheer brute force, but it is not a "better" format by any means. If Universal and Microsoft continue their hold out, at worst it will drive prices down further for both hardware and media.
Meanwhile, I'll be enjoying watching "Heroes" on HD DVD in a few weeks..... We ain't dead yet.
Sony sabotaged unification efforts at every turn, just as they have always done.
It sticks in their craw that the lion's share of the royalties went to Toshiba in the DVD spec, and they were determined to flip that this time. Nevermind that similar tactics failed with Beta, Minidisc, SA-CD, the list goes on and on .....
HD DVD wins in usability hands down with better interactivity capabilities, combo disks that can be played in either standard or HD DVD players, and a lack of region coding that enables you to buy any disc from any region with NTSC disks.
The only advantage for BluRay is slightly larger capacity and the hammer that was supposed to be the PS3 ensuring the format's success. GTA4 is lost for this year, Madden 08 is reviewed by numerous outlets as running more sluggish on a PS3 vs. the 360, Metal gear Solid will lose its exclusivity next (HMV had to backpedal when they announced it before they were supposed to), and Halo 3 and Mass Effect will steal more of the hardcore gamers they assumed were theirs. Meanwhile Wii will pass them both (although 3rd party support for the Wii is still remarkably scarce) this week or next.
I agree that BluRay still has the upper hand as Disney, Sony, and Fox try and ram it through with sheer brute force, but it is not a "better" format by any means. If Universal and Microsoft continue their hold out, at worst it will drive prices down further for both hardware and media.
Meanwhile, I'll be enjoying watching "Heroes" on HD DVD in a few weeks..... We ain't dead yet.
There were no angels in that negotiation room...
From what I read/heard:
Sony started working on a replacement format for DVDs shortly after they lost to Toshiba in the 11-th hour unification talks.
And by 2003 they had a blue-laser version of DVD ready. MPEG-2 transport streams and PCM/DD/DTS only.
CNN.com - Sony sells first blue-laser DVD recorder - Mar. 4, 2003
(It has been EOL-ed - end of life - since).
When the nextgen DVD talks started in DVD Forum, Toshiba had the chairman position (rotating).
At first, DVD Forum was playing with the idea of something similar to WMV-HD on regular DVD:
red laser, same disk, AACS instead of CSS, VC-1 (called VC-9 at that time) compression, etc.
I think Sony never even offered its blue laser DVD to DVD Forum (I could be wrong) as the next standard. They believed they are way ahead everybody else in this race (they had 23GB blue laser disks working) and were determined to get revenge for the DVD loss. They started building coalition with studios/CE manufacturers.
DVD Forum changed its mind and switched to blue laser, too (9GB vs. 50GB sounded to big of a gap). But they kept the physical structure the same as DVD (same material, coat 0.6 mm thick, etc.). This limited the HD to 15GB per layer. And they announced competition for the nextgen DVD video format.
The competition was expected between 2 formats: MPEG-2 and AVC (High Profile wasn't invented yet). Two weeks before the showdown Microsoft was told by a studio that such a competition would take place. They were not a member of the DVD Forum and couldn't participate. At the last moment a company called DemoGrafix (or something like that) - a member of DVD Forum - agreed to present MS' VC-9 in this competition.
Two hectic weeks around the clock encoding paid off: VC-9 won.
Studios suspected Microsoft was cheating and announced another shoutout with much stricter rules. MPEG-2 24 Mbps barely won over 7.7 Mbps VC-9. Soon after, AVC got High Profile and as of now is consider as good or better than VC-1.
DVD Forum standardized all three codecs. Sony fought hard against it in BDA but in the end did the same with Blu-ray (allegedly, under pressure from Disney).
Microsoft, Sony and others founded AACS and this system was standardized on both formats to replace CSS.
Disney and Microsoft developed iHD (HDi now) that was accepted as the interactive layer on HD DVD. It was offered for standardization to Blu-ray, competing against BD-J (after Flash dropped out from the competition). A specially assempled BDA technical committee recommended to choose iHD.
This was probably the day that can be blamed for all the ugliness of this format war.
Sun was allowed to make a presentation to defend BD-J. After that presentation the technical committee recomendation was overruled and BD-J set as a standard for BD. Disney requested to have them both but lost the vote.
Two events took place just before this decision was made:
-One slide in Sun presentation rhetorically asked: Do you want Windows to run your player?
-Microsoft was offered to join BDA as the only way to get iHD standardized. Microsoft refused.
BD+ was chosen as additional content protection layer on BD.
MS' hopes to build hidef playback into Vista were ruined (license Java again?) and they choose the side opposite to Blu-ray.
And the rest is history.
Diogen.
