I told you so... HD-DVD vs bluray

You are right about inflation. The fresh bread I used to buy at my local grocery chain (Publix) was $1.79 not that long ago. It crept into the low $2 range over a few months and suddenly, *JOLT* I bought a loaf for $3.39 yesterday. The same bread I was buying less than a year ago for $1.79.

My local fruit stand used to have awesome fresh bread, delivered daily fresh from a bakery. When I asked the mom and pop fruit stand shop owner about not selling bread anymore, I was told the lady packed up and moved BACK to Europe.

So sure, we are experiencing fast inflation in this country, but something tells me that isn't why the prices of bluray players and media are what they are.

No what I am saying is that if BD wants to grow, they are really going to have to dig deep and cut prices extremely low.

Average consumers who cannot afford food cannot afford a $500+ player (or 400 for that matter. )
 
If it wasn't for bluray and the fact that my cheapest buying option of a player was PS3, I would never have otherwise bought a PS3. Sony is the winner in all this.
I think this is the scenario Sony has written... And your case shows it works.
They didn't expect you getting pissed in the end, but hey, they can't be right all the time...:)

Diogen.
 
Every consumer product goes through cycles of selling close to full MSRP and then dropping to rock bottom sale prices. Companies are always looking for that balanced price-point: optimum sales at highest price the larger mass of consumers will bear.

So there aren't any big sales at Best Buy on BD discs right now. So what?! Don't buy one. Rent, wait a few weeks, or go online. J&R.com just had a great sale on BD discs a week or so ago. This isn't a big time for CE sales anyway. The new flat panels are being released close to MSRP, the old ones are on clearance, and so the cycle goes.

Yes, I understand how the "cycle" works. The point is, when there was competition, both formats constantly had movies on sale and now that there is one format, there are nowhere near the sales. This goes for online items too. I shop at Amazon and other retailers a lot and they are not offering good prices either on bluray since the war ended. Much of the prices pushing and promotions come from the distributors, and ultimately back to the license holder, SONY. It isn't just Best Buy to blame for no low price.

Give the forum some good reasons, a counter-argument, as to why one format is good for consumers. You know my position. Let's hear yours.

Let's hear a real argument from ANYBODY... any economist or bluray fanboy as to why one format is better for consumers. I'd honestly like to hear it.
 
At this rate of inflation, BD discs should be selling for $50, players for $650. They aren't; be happy. If you want to get upset at anyone, start with the oil companies who are making record profits and still getting massive tax breaks from a government that is ensuring their future supplies of oil in the Middle East by spending trillions of tax dollars on an ill-advised war strategy (or lack thereof).

Well, at least we know where you stand politically. HA...

Wrong red vs blue war man. But if that is your argument, you are welcome to it.
 
Yes, I understand how the "cycle" works. The point is, when there was competition, both formats constantly had movies on sale and now that there is one format, there are nowhere near the sales. This goes for online items too. I shop at Amazon and other retailers a lot and they are not offering good prices either on bluray since the war ended. Much of the prices pushing and promotions come from the distributors, and ultimately back to the license holder, SONY. It isn't just Best Buy to blame for no low price.

Give the forum some good reasons, a counter-argument, as to why one format is good for consumers. You know my position. Let's hear yours.

Let's hear a real argument from ANYBODY... any economist or bluray fanboy as to why one format is better for consumers. I'd honestly like to hear it.

It can't be done.

You have to have complementary goods for prices to go down, and none exist yet.

You have to hope that the BD group doesn't price fix, and that natural selection causes the team members to compete against each other.
 
Let's hear a real argument from ANYBODY... any economist or bluray fanboy as to why one format is better for consumers. I'd honestly like to hear it.
"What is good for Sony, is good for the country".
Ehhh... Scratch that. "...is good for the world". Hence, for consumers, too...:)

Diogen.
 
Give the forum some good reasons, a counter-argument, as to why one format is good for consumers. You know my position. Let's hear yours.

Beyond the deep price cuts Toshiba made in a desparate attempt to try to sway the war and ongoing BD disk BOGOs, I don't see how the format war could be viewed as a positive thing for anyone. The only way it would've been good is if all studios were format neutral. That didn't happen and as a result, there was much consumer confusion and resistance to committing to one format or the other. IF there is any chance of mass adoption, it couldn't happen with a format war. If you want to argue mass adoption would be more likely if Toshiba won, I would accept that. Regardless, now that the war is over, sales are increasing in spite of what you claim to be excessive BD prices. These will come down, and more consumers will jump on board.
 
I honestly feel your pain, and think BR is solidly heading for Laserdisc acceptance levels.
I made note of the comparison to Laserdisc versus Capacitive Discharge movie discs last year. I still say it is true and stand by my prediction that both sides will lose sooner than later.
 
What a load of crap.


Moving thread to the war-zone.

I think your comment is not exactly constructive. But, it is obvious studios intend HD media to be a price increase, back to about the margins of the original DVD. The "price relief" from the format war was temporary no matter who won the war. Everyone is dreaming if they think BD (or for that matter HD-DVD) studios were ever planning on being at DVD levels in pricing. If it was why bother, it is cheaper to master a DVD, just release DVD only.

This is a way to get the home video market back up to the old profit margins adjusted for inflation and no crying about it is going to change it.

The DVD business is broken right now as far as the studios are concerned. The movie production costs have been rising faster than inflation, theater ticket prices have been rising, but DVDs have not kept up. Studios are currently dependent on the DVD market, and they see they will eventually have to do something. HD media is a solution that lets them "add value" to justify a price increase.
 
snip

I am going to make a very bold prediction based on some information that has been rattling about for the last month. Prices on BD players will be down under $300 for 1.1 compliant players by XMAS. I am talking about standalone players. The price for 2.0 players will be under $400. Now for those on the very cheap you might find this outrageous -- but DVD players did not fall under the $200 price untill they were in the FOURTH YEAR on the market!

(.


In THIS ecomony, BR players need to be under $200 by Christmas if you want mass acceptance. The average DVD watching family is not going to pay $300 for a player. Not this year.
 
Neither side has/had your interests in mind. Whether you like it or not - it doesn't matter, live with that.
Nobody (almost) was making money while the war lasted and this seems to be still the case.
Neither side was expecting the war to last this long - the main players are in much deeper hole financially than they planned to be.
Those losses have to be recovered. You can't do that by pricing players and movies at DVD levels.

Competition is effective to force players be satisfied with 5% profit margin instead of 50%. If the margin is -10%, competition can't help.

Diogen.

Somehow, I just can't accept an argument that consumers will recognize the money lost on the war and will be willing to pay higher prices because its the right thing to do.

The price point is what it is, and manufacturers need to balance volume against price. You can never balance past losses on future sales, as someone else will come along and clobber you. In this case, an ever improving standard DVD at the price point the average consumer can accept.

If the BD manufacturers want this format to be mainstream, they need to write off past losses, bring manufacturing costs down to near DVD levels and sell the media at no more than a 20% premium. That means $3-4 over the standard DVD release.
 
Everyone is dreaming if they think BD (or for that matter HD-DVD) studios were ever planning on being at DVD levels in pricing. If it was why bother, it is cheaper to master a DVD, just release DVD only.

This is a way to get the home video market back up to the old profit margins adjusted for inflation and no crying about it is going to change it.

Why bother?

DVD sales have leveled off. HD discs at the same price or slightly higher than regular discs would certainly increase their bottom lines. They don't have to keep the prices high. Let's face it, if you are a buyer, you are usually a collector, and if you are a renter you are a renter. After buying well over 500 DVDs from 1998 or so to 2007, I had pretty much bought the entire catalog of everything I ever wanted to own. I was only buying new releases, and so were many collectors. Introducing HD made me, and many other collectors, wastefully spend money on replacing our DVD collections with HD discs (of either format). I hate to say it but many of these movies I love and would buy again for a better format. This would go on for years until I bought everything I could want again. Eventually Ultra HD would come out and then Ultra HD discs... then I would start buying again. This is a surefire way to increase profits, introducing a new format. They don't NEED to have high costs to increase profits. That's why bother.
 
I made note of the comparison to Laserdisc versus Capacitive Discharge movie discs last year. I still say it is true and stand by my prediction that both sides will lose sooner than later.

I keep having this problem with everyone saying that LD was a losing format. It was a successful niche format and made Pioneer a nice pile of money, along with bringing them into the forefront as a producer of videophile displays and sources. Before LD, Pioneer sold low to mid-market audio gear.

LD lasted 20 years, was supported by all studios, had virtually all major films released in the format, introduced special editions, widescreen releases, deleted scenes, commentary tracks, etc, etc. It was also at the center of the home theater revolution. People didn't put up those big screens to show VHS.

It was the preferred format of videophiles, and Hollywood insiders throughout the '80s and most of the '90s.

BD moving into an upscale niche strategy is definitely viable. It could co-exist with DVD for years to come. It definitely fits better with DVD than LD did with VHS.
 
For all you bluray fanboys that wished HD-DVD to death-

I was never a fanboy of either format. I own both and enjoy both very much so. I own two HD-DVD players (stand alone and Xbox360 add on) as well as about 50 movies. I own a PS3 and a handful of bluray movies.

My complaint was my biggest fear and it is coming true. Now that bluray has won and HD-DVD is off the shelves, just go into a Best Buy or any electronics store for that matter and walk down the bluray aisle. For the first time yesterday since they got rid of all in store HD-DVD, I walked down the "Next Generation DVD" aisle at Best Buy and there was not one item on sale. In the past, with two formats competing, each side of the aisle would have some movies on sale of each format. The outrageously priced items of $24.95-$34.95+ per movie would always have select movies on sale for $15-$20 or a buy one get one free deal. Now that there is only one format, there are no such sales.

This is just great for the consumer *sarcasm*. Just what I suspected. For those of you hoping for the bluray players to see a price drop, I think you'll be waiting a loooooooooooong time for anything significant.

Competition is GOOD for the consumer. The dancing in the streets mentality of the bluray fanboys that wished HD-DVD to death is stupid. You got what you wanted. Now go look for yourself and see what is on sale. Then ask yourself, "what did we do?"

You killed off a consumer's marketplace. That is what you did. The ball is going to remain in Sony's court for a very long time.

There is something called amazon.com in case you didn't know about it.
I buy all my movies from amazon.com (best price) best deal overall.
 
If the BD manufacturers want this format to be mainstream, they need to write off past losses, bring manufacturing costs down to near DVD levels and sell the media at no more than a 20% premium. That means $3-4 over the standard DVD release.

Or the studios will have to announce they are phasing out standard DVD's.

Sony & the studios need to price players and disks near standard DVD's or be patient and wait for the economy to bounce back. And Sony doesn't have the best record of being willing to wait.
 
...I just can't accept an argument that consumers will recognize the money lost on the war and will be willing to pay higher prices because its the right thing to do.
This is not what I meant.
If both objectives can be met - manufacturers making money and consumers buying with vengence - we have a successful new product.
Manufacturers can sell at a loss for a while if they have a clear strategy how to recover them and turn profit in the future. I don't think BD is there. At least not yet.
First, the war drove the prices too far down. Toshiba spoiled BD's party. After seeing what a $100 player can do it is hard to get used to $400 as the only way to have it now.
Second, the advantages over DVDs aren't that compelling to make it a mass market product. For many reasons.
Third, the profiling mess doesn't help either.

In such environment trying to recover accumulated losses is the only strategy, i.e. keep prices as high as possible (MSRP). And that's what we are seeing...

Diogen.
 
I am going to make a very bold prediction based on some information that has been rattling about for the last month. Prices on BD players will be down under $300 for 1.1 compliant players by XMAS. I am talking about standalone players. The price for 2.0 players will be under $400. Now for those on the very cheap you might find this outrageous -- but DVD players did not fall under the $200 price untill they were in the FOURTH YEAR on the market!


OK, why on earth would I want to go pay $300 for a player that isn't 2.0 compliant? What would be the sense in that? While I'm at it, let me go get a Pentium II :confused::rolleyes:

I have to say, NO, perhaps some wild sale or something will have a "few" BD players for <$400, but I doubt it will be MSRP, which is what matters...
 
Yeah.. I shop at Amazon all the time... you are clearly missing my point.

Missing your point? How...
You are complaining about the BD prices, and I gave you a place where you could buy it for cheap.
You were speaking about Best Buy. No matter if things are on sale or not, Best Buy always had the highest price out there.
 

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