Sony: the format war has just begun

[r.jones1116]

This is a different stance from claiming that they already won the format war.
I guess they are seeing the writing on the wall.

The Utility Belt: Blu-ray vs. HD DVD: Sony says the war has just begun

 

[JohnL]

This is a different stance from claiming that they already won the format war.
I guess they are seeing the writing on the wall.

The Utility Belt: Blu-ray vs. HD DVD: Sony says the war has just begun

R Jones,

I'll preface this post with a note that I own Neither BluRay nor HD DVD. The biggest reason is I don't want to buy an outdated/orphaned format.

With that said, Blockbuster's Announcement today was a MAJOR Blow to HD DVD, (all 1450 Stores to exclusively to stock BluRay, except for 250 test market stores already carrying HD DVD, no NEW Stores will carry HD DVD). This is likely the beginning of the end for HD DVD. Blockbuster is the largest and biggest heavy weight in the Movie Rental business. With this announcement you will likely see more competitors jump into Next Gen Movie Rentals, and few will foot the bill for a dual format war especially since most content will be available on BluRay, with Blockbuster picking BluRay its highly likely their competitors will pick the same format that Blockbuster did.

Since all but one studio is releasing Next Gen discs on Bluray, and the largest Rental business chooses to carry "ONLY" BluRay, HD DVD is likely at the end of its rope. All the cheap players in the world is not going to swing the bar back. Content is "KING" I WOULDN'T buy a player for its price or its Look. I would buy a player to actually play movies that I want to watch. With 75% to 80% of all Content to be available on BluRay, why buy a HD DVD player.

With Blockbusters' announcement, it is likely to press Universal to blink and start to release content on BluRay to get into Blockbuster nationwide. If that happens then HD DVD is DONE completely. 1450 stores buying multiple copies of new releases is ALOT of Disc's, and alot more than the number of discs that are actually being bought to go directly into the HOME to stay. Besides, if JOE SIX PACK goes into the Blockbuster and only sees BluRay discs, and then decides to get a Next Gen Player to go with that HD TV they just purchased 2-12 months ago, then they are going to go ask for a BluRay Disc player at the local Consumer Electronics Store.

I understand your devotion to HD DVD, but looking at the facts and recent business decisions it is more and more apparent every day that HD DVD is likely to lose the Next Gen War, unless something unprecedented happens and SOON.

John

 

[vurbano]

With that said, Blockbuster's Announcement today was a MAJOR Blow to HD DVD, (all 1450 Stores to exclusively to stock BluRay, except for 250 test market stores already carrying HD DVD, no NEW Stores will carry HD DVD). This is likely the beginning of the end for HD DVD.

I doubt it. The only thing it changes is returning them to the store for another HD DVD rental. You can still rent online as most everyone is already doing that rents. Then there are those that do not rent at all which this doesnt affect at all. I also do not see J6P spending 500 bucks on a BD player just to rent from a BB brick and mortar store..

 

[JohnL]

I doubt it. The only thing it changes is returning them to the store for another HD DVD rental. You can still rent online as most everyone is already doing that rents. Then there are those that do not rent at all which this doesnt affect at all. I also do not see J6P spending 500 bucks on a BD player just to rent from a BB brick and mortar store..

Vurbano,


It doesn't NOT matter what you think Joe Six Pack might or might NOT do. The point is that image is everything.

Go into a Best Buy or almost any Consumer Electronics store and you see BluRay front and center. Soon you will go into Blockbuster and likely other Rental stores and see only BluRay, or IF both HD DVD and BluRay are available you'll notice that BluRay titles dwarf the number of HD DVD titles.

Again CONTENT sells electronics players and not the other way around. Sony lost the VHS/BETA war with the BETAMAX for the same reasons that Toshiba is now losing this Netxt Gen war. JVC locked more studios and content into VHS marketing, hence BETA/SONY lost even though their Player was better than VHS, also the BETA had significantly less storage than VHS. SOUND familiar?

Sony learned from these mistakes and has hedge their bets, by locking in superior marketing support, and MUCH MORE content. With that and more and more deals coming for BluRay marketing and support, BluRay is on a roll that is not likely to abate.

I went through this similar argument several years ago about VOOM, then a HD only DBS service trying to compete for subscribers with Cable, Dish Network, and DirecTV. All the way to the end the FEW vocal VOOM supporters/Subscribers refused to see the writing on the wall. In the end VOOM shutdown its DBS service only to sell off all their Uplink center(s) and In-Orbit hardware to Dish Network, and then sign a deal for Dish to distribute their exclusive VOOM content on Dish Network.

All the way to the end those Voom Subs refused to see or admit their service and hardware was doomed to obsolescence.

To Finish my post, I really do NOT care whom wins only that one format does win and VERY SOON. Without one format, Next Gen Content is doomed to also ran standing. With the current sales of Content, player installed base, Content availability, retail Marketing, its very Clear that BluRay is WELL AHEAD, and that HD DVD is losing more ground. Doesn't sound like HD DVD has much of a chance.

I have been wrong before, but most of my investing and market analysis has been on the money, and personally I would BET REAL BIG on Sony at this point. Unless HD DVD pulls out a near Miracle and SOON they are going to LOSE.

John

 

[diogen]

...Blockbuster's Announcement today was a MAJOR Blow to HD DVD...
This is likely the beginning of the end for HD DVD.

Trying to count how many times I read something like this before... No, only computers can count this far.

With Blockbusters' announcement, it is likely to press Universal to blink and start to release content on BluRay to get into Blockbuster nationwide. If that happens then HD DVD is DONE completely.

Riiiiight....How didn't we notice this before?

Sony learned from these mistakes and has hedge their bets...

Sony capable of admitting making mistakes? That was good for a laugh...

I have been wrong before, but most of my investing and market analysis has been on the money, and personally I would BET REAL BIG on Sony at this point.

Then it MUST be true.

Diogen.

 

[BobMurdoch]

Actually, the local Best Buy has them both (the media at least) side by side in one space, no advantage to either.

as far as the hardware, They have one endcap on an aisle dedicated to each.

I haven't set foot in a Blockbuster in 5 years so it doesn't affect me, although I am curious as to how they will handle the Weinstein product since they only do DVD and HD DVD.

I'm sure there was some backroom deal by Sony or Fox to cut some deal advantageous to Blockbuster to get them to take this stance. Whatever pain this causes the HD DVD camp, 2 million HD DVD players at $200 hitting Walmart in the 3rd abnd 4th quarter should counterbalance it.

It's all posturing at this point. Some are trying a little too hard to call the war before it is over. Hanging the Mission Accomplished banner is a little premature, right now....

 

[CochiseGuy]

Actually, Sony saying the "format war has just begun" has me worried.

Ya' see when Sony makes a claim, I usually assume the opposite is true. Like in January with 1 month of disc sales lead - after trailing for 6 months, Sony claimed "The format war is over! It's now safe to buy!" I knew then that HD DVD was in good shape. If they're now saying the war has just begun, it actually might be bad news for HD DVD!

 

[JoeSp]

I think the BlockBuster deal is a space thing. Also I see Disney as being a big player here. BlockBuster does familys in a big way and those familys rent Disney in a big way. Going Blu only is saving space for their space limited stores and having Disney Blu made the decision easy for BlockBuster.

Having said all that, the reasons BlockBuster is giving for not including HD-DVD does not make sense. They are giving up on a segment of market and are throwing their considerably weight behind BluRay. However, they did say that they would continue to offer HD-DVD and their newer titles in the stores they are currently in and online.

Question -- If you rent a HD-DVD from BlockBuster online and return it to a store that only rents BluRay does that store send it back to the online warehouse or does that store put it on its shelf and rent it out? Hummm?

 

[FlyingJ]

I believe that they send all of the online rentals back. My thoughts on "the war has just begun" comment. If you have been in a fight for some time and have not really brought in your big guns, you may at that point say in fact the war has just begun. I actually believe this is the posture that Sony has taken. With this new Blockbuster Deal, they are implying that they have just begun to fight. My opinion, this battle will eventually decide the war and fairly quickly.

 

[navychop]

Someone, a journalist I believe, some months back predicted it would be over by September. I don't remember who or the exact reasoning, but there didn't seem to be much support for that position.

It still seems unlikely. But if in fact Wal-Mart is going to sell cheap Chinese Blu-ray players next year, and this becomes known, and Target and a few others go Blu-ray, then the slide will have begun, and might be obvious to all by year's end. Lotta ifs.

Yet there is more movement toward Blu-ray, even based upon such low sales to date. I guess 2 to 1 is 2 to 1 at any level, and they must expect it to continue that way- perhaps tipping even further to Blu-ray's favor after Disney starts releasing their big titles. But that may not happen until next year.

Gotta wonder. It all depends on the HD DVD camp not pulling a rabbit out of a hat, and Sony not shooting themselves in the foot. Never bet against the latter. But maybe it's not all bluster. Maybe Sony and the Blu-ray camp know something.

I wonder when the first "October 31" compliant player hits the streets?

 

[mike123abc]

Local walmart update: 10 HD-DVD titles, 25 BD, Sams Club 0. Walmart no longer has the RCA HD-DVD player (used to have it on the shelf,). Sams next door has it in stock cheap. Walmart and Sams both have PS3 in stock (599 Walmart 548 Sams).

 

[r.jones1116]

It still seems unlikely. But if in fact Wal-Mart is going to sell cheap Chinese Blu-ray players next year, and this becomes known, and Target and a few others go Blu-ray, then the slide will have begun, and might be obvious to all by year's end. Lotta ifs.

I don't know about the cheap chinese blu-ray players but it does look like the cheap chinese HDDVD players are on the way..... (last paragraph)

TrustedReviews - Universal Responds to Blockbuster Blu-ray Move

 

[navychop]

Interesting. And perhaps believable, since the price seems to be in the realm of reality (somewhere between $200 and $500, extrapolated from article).

Also interesting from your link: "...rental counted for less the one per cent of its revenue." Not sure it's the whole truth, but certainly of interest.