Blu-Ray-exclusive studios releasing on HD DVD "Inevitable"

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Reuters News article on Yahoo News today -

Mon Sep 3, 9:59 AM ET

LOS ANGELES (Reuters) - Hollywood studios are becoming deeply divided over which high-definition technology will replace the DVD, increasing prospects that it will be years before next-generation players become standard equipment in U.S. households.

Paramount Pictures and DreamWorks Animation SKG Inc signed exclusivity deals to distribute their next-generation discs on Toshiba Corp's HD DVD format for the next 18 months, a move that evened a contest where Sony Corp's Blu-Ray Disc appeared to be pulling ahead.

Paramount expected the lower-priced HD DVD players, which start at $299 compared with $499 for Blu-Ray, to tempt consumers more this holiday season when summer box office blockbusters are released on high-definition DVD. "We are in a very nascent stage in the world of high definition packaged media," said Kelley Avery, president of Paramount Home Entertainment. "Our approach is taking a look at what will motivate the consumer." {snip}

Pali Research analyst Rich Greenfield said Paramount's defection from Blu-Ray "alter(s) the landscape meaningfully, as Paramount is the leading theatrical distributor year-to-date."

Eight of the 15 top-grossing films of the year, including "Shrek the Third," "Transformers" and "Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix" were released by studios that distribute exclusively on HD DVD or on both formats. {snip}

Tom Adams, president of Adams Media Research, said the 18-month period of exclusivity for HD DVDs at the two studios comes during slow but growing sales for the new technology and will have little impact on consumers.

"It was going to be a more sedate transition in our view anyway," Adams said. "That's one reason that a period of exclusivity didn't sound too terrifying to the studios."

Preliminary estimates compiled by Adams Media Research show that about 1.5 million U.S. households can play Blu-Ray discs on Sony PlayStations 3 video game machines or dedicated players, versus about 300,000 households whose Microsoft XBoxes or dedicated players are HD DVD compatible.

Sony has dominated high-definition software sales as well, selling twice as many discs as HD DVD in the United States.

The two formats are nearly at parity in the number of titles each has released -- about 200, according to Digital Entertainment Group data.

Despite Sony's early edge, Adams and others warn it is simply too early to tell which format will prevail.

Adams expects HD DVD to be ahead in 2008, in terms of dedicated players, capturing about 1.1 million U.S. households, compared with 900,000 households with dedicated Blu-Ray players. {snip}

In the long wait for a winner, studios that chose one format could find they're leaving money on the table, Adams said.

"The more positive development for the industry ... would have been having the Blu-Ray-exclusive studios start releasing on HD DVD," Adams said. "We think ... there's some inevitability that they will have to release in both formats."

Some interesting facts contained in the article:

- 1.5 million households with BD players, 300,000 with HD DVD; both stats include game consoles & standalone players. A 5 to 1 advantage for Blu-ray. Makes that 3 to 2 advantage for BD in disc sales (Since Inception) sound not quite so overwhelming after all. Maybe Paramount did know what they were talking about when they said HD DVD had the greatest growth potential. ;)

- Eight of the 15 top-grossing films of this year will be on HD DVD this holiday season (although not all exclusively). So much for that "overwhelming studio support" always touted by the BD side. :rolleyes:

BTW, If you're not familiar with the stature of Adams Media Research -
Adams Media Research is the media industry's key source of market data and financial analysis on the filmed entertainment and digital media markets. When the Wall Street Journal, the New York Times, Barron's, or Forbes need a realistic, no-hype view of developments in new media technologies, they call AMR.

AMR was founded by Tom Adams in 1993 to research the impact of digital technologies on entertainment media. Among the subscribers to AMR's newsletter are the senior executives at the top companies in the fields of filmed entertainment, consumer electronics, personal computers, the Internet, microprocessors, packaged media distribution, cable and telecommunications. AMR's exclusive data, models and projections are also relied on by analysts at the top financial and investment firms.
 
- Eight of the 15 top-grossing films of this year will be on HD DVD this holiday season (although not all exclusively). So much for that "overwhelming studio support" always touted by the BD side. :rolleyes:

That's a bold statement. 5 of the top 15 releases of 2006 weren't even released until after October.
 
That's a bold statement. 5 of the top 15 releases of 2006 weren't even released until after October.

:confused:

I was quoting the article; assuming writers of an article of Reuters checked their information first.

I checked, and you're right of course - exactly 5 of the top 15 grossing movies of 2006 did not release at theaters until After October. :cool: (And I suspect careful choosing of words - you got it by a week with 'The Departed' opening Oct. 6 :p)

So, OK, let me paraphrase the article and change & expand my "bold statement" - 12 of the 20 top-grossing films so far this year will be on HD DVD this holiday season (although not all exclusively). So much for that "overwhelming studio support" always touted by the BD side. :D

2007 Top Movies:
HD DVD Only / Blu-ray Only / Warner both Blu-ray & HD DVD (for now) :p

1- Spider-Man 3 - Sony
2 - Shrek the Third- Paramount
3- Transformers - Paramount
4 - POTC: At World's End - Disney
5- Harry Potter & The Order of the Phoenix - WB
6 - 300 - WB
7 - Bourne Ultimatum - Universal
8 - Ratatouille - Disney
9 - The Simpsons Movie - Fox
10 - Wild Hogs - Disney
11 - Knocked Up - Universal
12 - Live Free or Die Hard Fox
13 - FF: Rise of Silver Surfer - Fox
14 - Rush Hour 3 - New Line
15 - Blades of Glory - Parmount
16 - Ocean's Thirteen - Warner
17 - I Now Pronounce you Chuck & Larry - Universal
18 - Ghost Rider - Sony
19 - Hairspray - New Line
20- Evan Almighty - Universal

Source: BoxOfficeMojo.com

And let me throw in a little "history" -
Sony declares Blu-ray winner in high-def format war
By Jennifer Netherby -- Video Business, 2/9/2007

Sony is so confident that Bishop said the studio plans to begin marketing the format to consumers as the winner of the format war.

“The message that we’re going to put out to the consumer now is, now it is safe to make a choice,” he said. “No more fence-sitting is needed.”

::bow
 
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So what they are saying is that 8 of the top 15 will be HD-DVD, but what wasn't said is that 10 of the 15 will be Blu-ray. Who paid for this research, Universal, Toshiba or Microsoft???
 
Let's just make it easy and break down that top twenty list:

HD-DVD Only: 7 titles
Blu-ray: 8 titles
Both: 5 titles

The tipping point is Warner. If they go exclusive in either direction the balance is upset.

Cheers,
 
How much competition is there between Warner & Paramount? If Warner really wanted to stick it to Paramount, they could go Blu-ray exclusive. I believe Warner has a stronger lineup now than Paramount. This could strengthen Blu-ray, pushing it into dominance, and Paramount could be stuck for 18 months outside the Blu-ray camp.

Nah.

:devil::rolleyes:;)
 
How much competition is there between Warner & Paramount? If Warner really wanted to stick it to Paramount, they could go Blu-ray exclusive. I believe Warner has a stronger lineup now than Paramount. This could strengthen Blu-ray, pushing it into dominance, and Paramount could be stuck for 18 months outside the Blu-ray camp.
Nah.

:devil::rolleyes:;)

While Warner was given a place on the BDA board in exchange for going neutral, the # 2 company behind Toshiba for patents in DVD is Warner (translation: continued royalties via HD DVD) How much competition is there between Warner & Sony/Fox/Disney?


Let's just make it easy and break down that top twenty list:

HD-DVD Only: 7 titles
Blu-ray: 8 titles
Both: 5 titles

The tipping point is Warner. If they go exclusive in either direction the balance is upset.

Cheers,

I do believe you earn that "Curmudgeon in Training" title. ;)

Translation: IMHO, Warner will stay neutral and milk it for every nickel they can. Clever bastards. :p
 
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I don't know but expect that some of the Warner patents mentioned for DVD also apply to Blu-ray. So they make money either way.

I think they just like the profits they are seeing by selling both and will remain neutral.
 
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I don't know but expect that some of the Warner patents mentioned for DVD also apply to Blu-ray. So they make money either way.

I think the just like the profits they are seeing by selling both and will remain neutral.

Warner had no hand in the development of Blu-ray. They were committed to HD DVD exclusively until the Fall of 2005 when, under pressure from major shareholder Carl Icahn to find ways to increase stock price, Warner decided to also support Blu-ray. Who knows what the BDA offered them, but a piece of the royalty pie is unlikely when BD was that far along.

There's a terrific Business Week Oct. 2005 article with excellent back ground on the history of DVD/Blu-ray/HD DVD.
Then in the 1990s, Toshiba outmaneuvered Sony to establish the standard for today's DVDs. The Japanese company teamed up with Time Warner on the technology, using the media giant's clout to get other Hollywood studios on board. The result is that Toshiba and Time Warner rake in the lion's share of the royalties generated by DVDs. No one has disclosed precisely what those royalties are, but they run into the hundreds of millions of dollars.

And the section about Warner deciding to also support Blu-ray includes an interesting tibit:
Meanwhile, Sony's camp received help winning over one influential studio from an unlikely source. Raider Carl C. Icahn, one of Time Warner's largest shareholders, began pressuring the studio to find ways to boost its stock price earlier this year. Despite Time Warner's long alliance with Toshiba, CEO Richard Parsons asked Jeff Bewkes, chairman of the company's entertainment unit, to reconsider the best way to recharge DVD sales. Bewkes decided that the studio should forget appearances and back Blu-ray if it was the format most likely to win consumers' hearts. "Blu-ray's potential for more capacity started looking better and better," said one Hollywood executive.

CRISIS MODE. Once warner started to waver, Paramount Pictures decided to move first in order to negotiate better terms, according to Hollywood insiders.

So, almost 2 years to the day that Paramount "moved first" (ahead of Warner) to negotiate "better terms" to release on Blu-ray, they decide to go back to HD DVD only. :rolleyes:

Sounds like those "better terms" were up, and this time it was HD DVD that came a callin' with "better terms". ;)

And now Warner is sitting the Driver's seat with the power to swing majority studio support toward either format. Carl Ichan is probably very happy. :p
 
So will someone just explain to me how in the world can BD be spanking HD-DVD around the world? There are currently no markets where current sales figures show HD-DVD outselling BD. Are HD-DVD guys just cheap or are there just not enough of ya to take back the lead from BD?

This surely must be something sinster from the BDA to make all these sales happen!!
 
So will someone just explain to me how in the world can BD be spanking HD-DVD around the world? There are currently no markets where current sales figures show HD-DVD outselling BD. Are HD-DVD guys just cheap or are there just not enough of ya to take back the lead from BD?

This surely must be something sinster from the BDA to make all these sales happen!!

You've got an 8 to 1 hardware installed advantage, and several big studios holding a gun to consumers' heads. AND A 2 TO 1 SHARE IS ALL YOU COULD MUSTER.. Let's see what Paramount/Dreamworks' defection does to those numbers..... How soon until the BluRay group pulls the subsidies from Disney and Fox?

Meanwhile HD DVD enthusiast posts here outnumber BluRay 5 to 1. People who love HD DVD have reasons that inspire their fervent support. BR supporters seem to only have larger potential capacity and a desire to end the war as quickly as possible as their reasons for backing BR (I consider the latter to be Bill Hunt's primary reason for backing Bluray).
 
I've got about 15 too......

And most of the other BR titles I'm waiting for Starz/Showtime/HBO HD to get them to make my point to their wallets... I did buckle and buy Casino Royale, but that's it. I didn't even buy Cars on DVD.
 

Can HD-DVD regain their momentum and succeed?

Many confused by Blu-ray vs. HD-DVD

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