The Tonight Show with Conan O'Brien

[TNGTony]

Conan did not lose his show, Jay did. Jays show is the one that tanked, and that's why NBC is canceling it. It did not get enough viewers, so he doesn't get to stay (your words). If Jay had any integrity he would just walk away and come back another day.

BTW - Conan would not be out after a few months as you say, he had a 2 year contract. It took Leno 3 years to finally get his show together and beat Letterman in the ratings.

Three points:

1) When Jay took over for Carson, his audience dipped sharply and after three months stabalized. Jay lost half of Carson's audience. but then he had his own rather respectible stable audience. After 5 months Jay's audience numbers were going UP, not down. And the Letterman show was the new kid on the block at the time. It started with tremendous numbers and started its slide. Conan's numbers were STILL dropping until last week. Had the numbers stabalized I would be with you.

2) Jay Leno Show got EXACTLY the audience NBC was expecting him to get. They also were in for the long haul to build Jay's audience. However, NBC's strategy was under fire by stations on the virge of mutiny. NBC figured they could make more money putting up a third rate (littereally third rated), cheap-to-produce show and having a smaller audience would still add up to more profits. And they were right. But the secondary effect it had on the local news broadcast ratings was totally overlooked!

3) Contracts in Television are based on keeping certain performance standards. "You have a 2 year contract provided thay you meet the following..... " If your show isn't holding its own, the network can cancel your show at the drop of a hat! Of course neither you or I have read the contract. But let's say the contract was hard and fast two year contract--- even if the total audience was 2 people in Peoria and no one else. NBC can buy out the contract and it would cost them less in the long run.

If you are looking for job security, Talent on a TV show isn't the industry you want to persue.

 

[Derwin0]

Conan quit because NBC wanted to push him back to after 12:05/11:05 at night. Like he wasn't good enough for the 11:30/10:30.

If Conan's ratings were as good as Leno's were at 11:35, then I would agree.
But Conan's ratings haven't been good, so NBC is going what any other network would do, canceling or moving him.

 

[MikeD-C05]

I keep hearing all this Crying about how "Conan got screwed" and should keep his show. I'm sorry to Say, Conan lost this show on his very own!!!

The way the TV industry works is, if you get enough viewers, you get to stay. If you take a giant dump on your desk (off camera) and have a half hour show of a steaming turd just sitting on the desk and more people watch it than any other show on TV, you are a hit and you get to keep your show. If you are God's gift to TV and have a show with unbeleivable stunts, comedy and unmatched quality and more people watch other TV channels than you, you are out! PERIOD.

It's all about viewership. I liked Conan at 12:30. But at 11:30 I prefer Dave. I, like 7 out of 10 people who used to watch Leno at 11:30 started watching something else. This is why Conan "got screwed". If Leno would have just left NBC, Conan would STILL be out at 11:30 within the next few months because his numbers were continuing their downward slide. Had his numbers stabalized, NBC may have lived with it since they were getting the younger demo they wanted. But as I said before, that audience is too small and fickel. His numbers just never stabalized at 11:30pm

I know his numbers are up now, but that is a false spike. People are now tuning in to watch the car crash. They want to see the disaster in progress. People want to watch Conan's last few shows on NBC.

See ya
Tony

As you say Tony; if your number are going down they will cancel you. Well Jay's numbers were dismal and local affiliates all over the country were angry about the lead in from Jay to their local news cast hurting them. Jay BOMBED and they CANCELED his show, NOT Conan's. Conan could of stayed if he wanted to at a later time slot and kept the Tonight Show moniker. There were no complaints about Conan and his show hurting the local affiliates , but there were screams all over the country to end Jay Leno's show.

But that being said , I don't think that the Tonight Show was a good fit for Conan. I preferred him on his own show. But I didn't care for Leno at all on his show at an earlier time slot or on the Tonight Show. I just don't think he is funny at all. But different audiences prefer different people. The older crowd likes Letterman or Leno and the younger crowed likes Conan. I like Letterman and Conan . I think Jimmy Fallon isn't that funny at all and on his show he looks like he is over his head. Jimmy Kimmel is okay but I don't watch Abc after the local late news. In fact I feel that this whole genre of shows is dieing out . Just like soap operas in the daytime , they are losing viewers. Due to dvrs, internet and a multitude of other choices .

 

[TNGTony]

I will repeat: Jay did EXACTLY what NBC expected. He got the ratings NBC EXPECTED. Jay Performed how NBC wanted him to perform.

The screams to end the Jay Leno show were coming from the local affiliates. The affiliates' revolution was what forced NBC's hand, not Jay's ratings.

CONAN on the other hand was NOT getting the ratings NBC expected. Conan was NOT doing how NBC expected. And his audience numbers were still dropping, not stabalizing EVEN AMONG HIS CORE YOUNGER AUDIENCE! Conan was bombing at 11:30 by any standard you want to choose.

Again, had CONAN had reasonable ratings; Had CONAN been able to stabalize his audience; had CONAN been able to show he was starting to biuld a core audience, then there would be a different story. CONAN lost the Tonight show on his very own.

Had Jay Leno decided he was leaving NBC (remember he is under contract with NBC too) that does not mean Conan would have stayed much longer either!

 

[kb7oeb]

That is what NBC says but Leno was getting beat by repeats. NBC said that wouldn't happen and Leno's ratings would average out over the year when the other networks ran repeats.

 

[DJ Rob]

I'm confused on how anyone here would know the true internal network expectations of these shows. It appears that the network just spun the bad numbers by saying Jay did what they expected and how they ever wanted. Do you honestly think they really wanted to kill their affiliates late local news ratings & revenue? And Conan's numbers?

A friend I know that works for an NBC affiliate told me last week that the network had promised significantly better ratings than Jay ever delivered and that the show was going to be different and revolutionary. The affiliates did their part by promoting Jay's show everyday - even including what was on that day's show on their newscasts.

In the end, the show was Jay's old Tonight Show an hour and a half earlier and it lost in the ratings.

Conan had a crappy lead-in, got little or no promotion and had second choice of guests to Jay's show - combine all of that there was no way for Conan to deliver anything close to what Jay did with the Tonight Show.

The only way to equally compare is to cancel Jay's show, give Conan good lead-ins/promotions and #1 choice in Los Angeles area guests like Jay had.

 

[cosmo_kramer]

I'm confused on how anyone here would know the true internal network expectations of these shows. It appears that the network just spun the bad numbers by saying Jay did what they expected and how they ever wanted. Do you honestly think they really wanted to kill their affiliates late local news ratings & revenue? And Conan's numbers?

A friend I know that works for an NBC affiliate told me last week that the network had promised significantly better ratings than Jay ever delivered and that the show was going to be different and revolutionary. The affiliates did their part by promoting Jay's show everyday - even including what was on that day's show on their newscasts.

In the end, the show was Jay's old Tonight Show an hour and a half earlier and it lost in the ratings.

Conan had a crappy lead-in, got little or no promotion and had second choice of guests to Jay's show - combine all of that there was no way for Conan to deliver anything close to what Jay did with the Tonight Show.

The only way to equally compare is to cancel Jay's show, give Conan good lead-ins/promotions and #1 choice in Los Angeles area guests like Jay had.

Very well said!! :up

 

[meStevo]

The pro-Jay stuff here is funny, so the 10pm Leno show did as NBC expected, which was very poorly but profitable (often losing the evening to reruns on the CW network), and you peel off the affiliates as some separate entity so you can say that NBC didnt fail, it's the affiliates that have a problem. That sounds like NBC's problem to me, and it's because of ratings. Per your rationale then, Leno did worse than NBC needed it to do, which would have then appeased the affiliates... making NBCs low expectations look even more absurd and shortsighted, ESPECIALLY given all the objections to the 10pm slot before this trainwreck was put on it's tracks and set in motion.

This is still going to be very bad in the long run, NBC would end up better off just firing Leno and letting Conan build his show slowly like every other late night host has had to. Now the Tonight Show will always have a stigma attached to it.

 

[dfergie]

Yeah, the stink of Conan will be hard to clear out of the Tonight Show

 

[cosmo_kramer]

Yeah, the stink of Conan will be hard to clear out of the Tonight Show

Now there's a rational, well-thought out, and well-articulated comeback!! Facts be damned, I wish I could say you've convinced me!!

 

[MikeD-C05]

Yes, I think this thread has more than a few Leno supporters . So supportive, that they only see things through that perception. Most of the Hollywood stars that have talked about this ,have been Conan supporters. Sat .Night Live had a pro Conan sketch and their News update was also Pro Conan . I think most can see the facts and make up their own minds . But this is like Politics. People will filter their beliefs through their appropriate slanted News channels /papers etc. And Pro Conan and Pro Leno supporters will filter the events leading up to this debacle the way each sees it. Either way, this has forever hurt NBC, The Tonight Show , both Leno and Conan and the viewers of all three.

 

[Scott Greczkowski]

As I said before I like Leno's hosting better, but again I feel Conan got the short end of the stick here.

Conan was better at 12:30.

 

[riffjim4069]

...often losing the evening to reruns on the CW network

Often? Perhaps occasionally in a few DMAs, but nationally the CW ratings are barely visable on the radar.

 

[TNGTony]

If you guys actually think I am "Pro" anyone you are nuts! I am not pro leno or anti conan. I am explaining to a bunch of crying children how the TV industry works. It's a business that is driven by dollars and viewership combined. Personally I would love to see BOTH Conan and JAY canned and taking Jimmy with them. They all SUCK!

The destruction of the local late news audience was an UNEXPECTED side effect and the ONLY reason for Jay's show being canceled. Yes it should have been expected, but the geniuses at NBC overlooked it in their miopic numbers crunching. Had the affiliates not threatened to mutiny and desert the network, NBC would have been happy with the ratings performance. Why? Because for what it costs to produce a 1 hour Law & Order episode NBC can produce almost two weeks of the Jay Leno show. This means that they can afford to fly the white flag and concede last place, but still make money since the are spending less money. That was really the plan. Jay Leno was never given the chance to see how the plan would work out during the summer months whn everything is in reruns for 12 weeks.

So now on to Conan. I have to repeat this because the conan supporters seem to be skipping over this. Conan lost 58% of Leno's audience in 3 months over the summer before the "leno effect". As of two weeks ago, Conan's audience was 67% smaller than Leno's audience at 11:30pm one year appart. Conan's trend in audience was GOING DOWN. Conan was LOSING audience as of two weeks ago. It wasn't until NBC announced that Conan was going to be pushed back to a time slot where he was doing well before and Conan refused the move that his audience numbers bumped up. And even now Conan's numbers are HALF of what Leno had last year at this time.

NBC has to make a BUSINESS decision. Conan was not performing at the time slot he was given. Jay was but due to outside pressures (the affiliates) Jay had to be moved back to 11:35. Conan was offered the ability to keep his show but 30 minutes later. He refused and essentially he is quitting. NBC will likely pay Conan a $20-40 MILLLLion dollar severance when if they really wanted to they could hold Conan to the 2 year contract he sighed and force him to host the Tonight Show at 12:05am or be in breach.

Once again, had CONAN had a stable audience, not a declining audience, he may have had a leg to stand on. In TV if you do not get the ratings expected, you get moved or canceled. Jay got moved. Conan was going to get moved, but when Conan refused he essentially quit!

Put this situation in any other work experience. If you refuse a reasonable request from your boss, you can summarily be fired for insubordination. If you don't believe me, next time you get a work schedule you don't like, tell your boss you refuse to work starting at certain hours and see how long you keep you're job ESPECIALLY if your performing below par.

 

[kb7oeb]

CW was beaten by ION recently and ION has fewer affiliates

 

[TNGTony]

On Today's show on Letterman he came out in defense of Jay! He says what I have been saying. Jay is doing what his BOSS is telling him to do.

 

[DJ Rob]

And Conan wouldn't, because he knew what another disaster his bosses were setting him up for. Leno could've stood up and said this wasn't right...But Leno is Leno.

Tony, all of the information you are giving is not what I was told by a person that is at a major market NBC affiliate. Read my earlier post.

 

[MikeD-C05]

If you guys actually think I am "Pro" anyone you are nuts! I am not pro leno or anti conan. I am explaining to a bunch of crying children how the TV industry works. It's a business that is driven by dollars and viewership combined. Personally I would love to see BOTH Conan and JAY canned and taking Jimmy with them. They all SUCK!

The destruction of the local late news audience was an UNEXPECTED side effect and the ONLY reason for Jay's show being canceled. Yes it should have been expected, but the geniuses at NBC overlooked it in their miopic numbers crunching. Had the affiliates not threatened to mutiny and desert the network, NBC would have been happy with the ratings performance. Why? Because for what it costs to produce a 1 hour Law & Order episode NBC can produce almost two weeks of the Jay Leno show. This means that they can afford to fly the white flag and concede last place, but still make money since the are spending less money. That was really the plan. Jay Leno was never given the chance to see how the plan would work out during the summer months whn everything is in reruns for 12 weeks.

So now on to Conan. I have to repeat this because the conan supporters seem to be skipping over this. Conan lost 58% of Leno's audience in 3 months over the summer before the "leno effect". As of two weeks ago, Conan's audience was 67% smaller than Leno's audience at 11:30pm one year appart. Conan's trend in audience was GOING DOWN. Conan was LOSING audience as of two weeks ago. It wasn't until NBC announced that Conan was going to be pushed back to a time slot where he was doing well before and Conan refused the move that his audience numbers bumped up. And even now Conan's numbers are HALF of what Leno had last year at this time.

NBC has to make a BUSINESS decision. Conan was not performing at the time slot he was given. Jay was but due to outside pressures (the affiliates) Jay had to be moved back to 11:35. Conan was offered the ability to keep his show but 30 minutes later. He refused and essentially he is quitting. NBC will likely pay Conan a $20-40 MILLLLion dollar severance when if they really wanted to they could hold Conan to the 2 year contract he sighed and force him to host the Tonight Show at 12:05am or be in breach.

Once again, had CONAN had a stable audience, not a declining audience, he may have had a leg to stand on. In TV if you do not get the ratings expected, you get moved or canceled. Jay got moved. Conan was going to get moved, but when Conan refused he essentially quit!

Put this situation in any other work experience. If you refuse a reasonable request from your boss, you can summarily be fired for insubordination. If you don't believe me, next time you get a work schedule you don't like, tell your boss you refuse to work starting at certain hours and see how long you keep you're job ESPECIALLY if your performing below par.

But what you keep failing to see Tony is that LENO failed miserably at his time slot as well. The show sucked and he has dismal ratings that caused both the late news to drop in ratings and of course this lead in to Conan suffered as well. Many , Many people said that Leno show was unwatchable. Regardless what Nbc publicly said about his ratings, they were terrible. OF course the network who made the stupid decision to try this experiment at 10:00/9:00 are going to say that the ratings were what they expected. The network was the one who canceled the Jay Leno show , not Conan. As you said Conan made the decision to quit and was not canceled.So when you can admit that, then I can say you are being truly objective and not a Leno supporter.

 

[TNGTony]

Leno was #1 at 11:30
Conan was #1 at 12:30

Leno was not given enough time at 10pm to prove the concept when everything is in reruns. Ratings were on the low end of the expectations, but still in the expectations range. The numbers were stable, but not building yet

Conan was not given enough time at 11:30pm to establish his audience, but his ratings were WORSE than Dismal. For the first time since Jack Parr the Tonight show slipped to THIRD place and was still sliding. Conan was BOMBING! Even BEFORE the "Leno effect".

So, you own the business. You want 11:30 viewers to come back as quickly as possible.
Do you:
1) Stay with the man who is still losing audience at 11:30 hoping that a new lead-in to the lead-in that isn't even in production has some people sticking around long enough to help stabalize the downward slide of the ratings ?
2) Bring back the man who was #1 in the time slot only 9 months ago in hopes to regain audience quickly and hopefully help the lead-in get slightly higher ratings from people tuning in early?
3) Cancel both hosts and get a new host to bring in viewers.

From a BUSINESS perspective, 2 is really the only choice.

See ya
Tony

 

[tornado]

Never thought they should have made the changes. The should have left things the way they were. I especially did not like Leno in prime time. It was the programming executives mistake but Conan should not have to pay.