I see a lot of people claiming that Blu Ray player prices will come down quickly. Without the competition of HD DVD, prices have stayed flat or even gone up on Blu Ray players and disks. DVD had many years to catch on. As technology changes faster and faster, Blu Ray may not have as much time to capture a big market. I agree prices will drop, but will they come down fast enough to gain mass acceptance? That is the big question.
Why Blu-ray will be the next DVD
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BD player prices will come down (I speculate late this year) because there is competition between different companies making BD players. There is not just one source, as there was (for all practical purposes) with HD DVD and Toshiba.
Denon will sell high end expensive BD players. Panasonic and many other companies sell much less expensive ones, and each will compete with the others for market share.
Denon will sell high end expensive BD players. Panasonic and many other companies sell much less expensive ones, and each will compete with the others for market share.
Ah, memories. I remember we had a VCR, and some of my friends had Videodiscs. I also remmember laughing at them because they couldn't record things and I could.
Here's a story about the ill-fated devices. Capacitance Electronic Disc - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
A lot of people thought that DVD wouldn't catch on for the very same reason that LD never really took off - because it didn't record. A number of things came together at just the right moment in time to assure DVDs success, the most notable being the introduction of the DVR. DVD was first introduced in 1995 and was welcomed by AV enthusiasts because of its superior video and audio quality as compared to VHS. It wasn't until about 2000-2001 when DVD player sales started shooting through the roof, right about the time that TiVo, Replay TV, Dishplayer and others started changing the way that people watched TV. Anyone with a DVR instantly had nearly zero use for a VCR any more, except to watch old tapes. The last excuse not to buy a DVD player was gone, and when they became cheap and plentiful about that time the days of the VCR were numbered. Now that DVD is firmly entrenched, and still of very good video quality even on a big screen HDTV, it will take more than just marketing to overcome the place that DVD has in the average household. I can tell you, my wife doesn't understand why I buy BD titles. She thinks DVD is just fine, as do most people I'm sure.
IMHO, the only way for BD to substantially replace DVD is for prices to come down on both hardware and software, to make them competitive. Right now there is a huge profit margin for BD hardware and software, which is just the way the big electronics manufacturers like it. Physical media is on the way out though, just as the VCR was on the way out when the DVR came on the scene. The PS3 may be a great BD player, but it is also a pretty decent player for downloaded content. With the PS3, Sony effectively has a horse in both races.
IMHO, the only way for BD to substantially replace DVD is for prices to come down on both hardware and software, to make them competitive. Right now there is a huge profit margin for BD hardware and software, which is just the way the big electronics manufacturers like it. Physical media is on the way out though, just as the VCR was on the way out when the DVR came on the scene. The PS3 may be a great BD player, but it is also a pretty decent player for downloaded content. With the PS3, Sony effectively has a horse in both races.
I'm still not ready to shell out the money for a BD player. The picture quality is indeed better, but my Toshiba upconverting DVD player does such a fabulous job, that I just don't see the point yet.
I agree with you completely. My Sharp BD-HP20U Bluray player does a fine job upconverting DVDs, so the BD titles I buy are few and far between. If I hadn't gotten it for free I would be saying the same thing - who needs Bluray right now when upconverted DVDs still look very good. The average consumer (myself included for the most part) doesn't see the value proposition. When the day comes that you can get a Bluray player for about the same price as a good upconverting DVD player, and maybe a $3 to $5 premium for BD movies, then the market will start taking off. They had better not take too long making that happen. Downloads are going to end up being the format of choice if they hold the price up for much longer.
Nah, Physical media will be around for a very ling time. People tend to want to be able to keep their movies/music. Not lose it on a hard drive.
I don’t see it as losing it. I can envision a service where you pay for a movie and you own the right to log on to the server and download that movie when ever you want it where ever you’re at. No hard drive storage needed. You’ll have your username and password and can login at multiple locations but only be allowed to view a specific movie at one location at a time. The particulars for fair usage will be ironed out.
Also hard drives with internal moving parts are soon to be a thing of the past.
The issue w/ downloads/VOD in HD is the cost for services w/ the bandwidth that makes it truly convenient to use. Sure, I can set up a download of a compressed HD movie on my Xbox through its fabulous Live Marketplace service...and then wait for 8 hours while it downloads (I have basic DSL).
Three options:
1) Leave it as is. Not true HD, but still looks good. Slow downloads for most people means its not the kind of VOD we're used to w/ cable, nor even the kind of 'run to the store and grab a movie' time turnaround. I daresay this cuts out the vast majority of the lucrative 'impulse viewers' that Hollywood is after.
2) Squeeze the HD content down in size to make things faster. Likely. Also, means folks will continue to assert..."My upconverted DVDs look as good as HD, see!?" No one will ever know what HD is really like.
3) Develop fast cheap distribution systems that exponentially speed up the average download to allow headroom for full HD streams...and at the prices everyone is used to paying for broadband now. Anything much less and you're going to get hiccups in playback or you're, again, compressing the crap out of the HD.
So, question is, how long until the broadest swath of the American marketplace will have access to 16Mbs broadband service (i.e. fiber to the house or some such) at, say $30/mo?
Not going to happen for a while, I'd imagine.
Viva Blu-ray...for the pop it and play it 'true HD' lover in you.
Three options:
1) Leave it as is. Not true HD, but still looks good. Slow downloads for most people means its not the kind of VOD we're used to w/ cable, nor even the kind of 'run to the store and grab a movie' time turnaround. I daresay this cuts out the vast majority of the lucrative 'impulse viewers' that Hollywood is after.
2) Squeeze the HD content down in size to make things faster. Likely. Also, means folks will continue to assert..."My upconverted DVDs look as good as HD, see!?" No one will ever know what HD is really like.
3) Develop fast cheap distribution systems that exponentially speed up the average download to allow headroom for full HD streams...and at the prices everyone is used to paying for broadband now. Anything much less and you're going to get hiccups in playback or you're, again, compressing the crap out of the HD.
So, question is, how long until the broadest swath of the American marketplace will have access to 16Mbs broadband service (i.e. fiber to the house or some such) at, say $30/mo?
Not going to happen for a while, I'd imagine.
Viva Blu-ray...for the pop it and play it 'true HD' lover in you.
My cable co. just sent me a survey in which they asked if I would be willing to pay $65/mo. for 25 Mb/s download speed as part of a new service targetted at gamers. Their standard 7 Mb/s service (unbundled) currently costs $42/mo. And this, in a market where the phone company is putting up plenty of competetion. Extra speed is just going to cost you... period.
Besides, taking a disk out of its case, popping it in the player, and turning on the TV is WAY easier than booting up the computer, downloading some content, transferring it via disk or flash to my HTC. The popularity of services like Netflix speaks for itself. Average users are more likely to turn to PPV then go through all the downloading/archiving/transfering hassles...most wouldn't even have the technical know-how. Case in point, my entire family who all have HDTVs.
For the non-technical average consumer (especially those over 40 at this point) I can see the appeal of physical media. You can look at it at the store, buy it, and put it in your player at home. As long as you take reasonably good care of it a DVD or BD will theoretically outlive the consumer. Downloads are harder to deal with for the non-technical, because you can't see or touch them, and they only exist inside the device you have chosen to put them in. What happens if the device breaks, or is lost or stolen? What happens if you buy a new device? Can you transfer the files from one to another? With a DVD you can always take your movie and put it in a new player and it will play.
The movie industry likes physical media too because it is something they can sell and keep track of more or less. Downloads, not so much. Many have also discovered "free" downloads through bittorrent and other file sharing methods. The move industry REALLY hates that. There may always be a place for physical media, but what happened to music very quickly is happening to video very slowly. Sure you can still buy CDs, and you will probably still see them in stores 10-15 years from now. Just like Napster, followed by iTunes, changed the music distribution model, so Bittorrent, Netflix, and Uncrate will do for movies. It is inevitable IMHO.
As for myself, I prefer physical media because they are easier. Yes, I am also in that over-40 crowd. I also have basic DSL with no plans to upgrade. Just gave up dial-up about 2 years ago.
The movie industry likes physical media too because it is something they can sell and keep track of more or less. Downloads, not so much. Many have also discovered "free" downloads through bittorrent and other file sharing methods. The move industry REALLY hates that. There may always be a place for physical media, but what happened to music very quickly is happening to video very slowly. Sure you can still buy CDs, and you will probably still see them in stores 10-15 years from now. Just like Napster, followed by iTunes, changed the music distribution model, so Bittorrent, Netflix, and Uncrate will do for movies. It is inevitable IMHO.
As for myself, I prefer physical media because they are easier. Yes, I am also in that over-40 crowd.
I also have basic DSL with no plans to upgrade. Just gave up dial-up about 2 years ago.
For the non-technical average consumer (especially those over 40 at this point) I can see the appeal of physical media. You can look at it at the store, buy it, and put it in your player at home. As long as you take reasonably good care of it a DVD or BD will theoretically outlive the consumer. Downloads are harder to deal with for the non-technical, because you can't see or touch them, and they only exist inside the device you have chosen to put them in. What happens if the device breaks, or is lost or stolen? What happens if you buy a new device? Can you transfer the files from one to another? With a DVD you can always take your movie and put it in a new player and it will play.
The movie industry likes physical media too because it is something they can sell and keep track of more or less. Downloads, not so much. Many have also discovered "free" downloads through bittorrent and other file sharing methods. The move industry REALLY hates that. There may always be a place for physical media, but what happened to music very quickly is happening to video very slowly. Sure you can still buy CDs, and you will probably still see them in stores 10-15 years from now. Just like Napster, followed by iTunes, changed the music distribution model, so Bittorrent, Netflix, and Uncrate will do for movies. It is inevitable IMHO.
As for myself, I prefer physical media because they are easier. Yes, I am also in that over-40 crowd.
Different strokes for different folks, and it's obvious the studios are starting to realize the importance of making their content available in the plethora of formats that are currently available. Unfortunately for them, they are stuck with providing physical media to us over-40 folks for at least the next 40-50 years!
