Will HD die in America?

[JoeSp]

I have watched over the last two weeks as the BD fans have celebrated and the HD-DVD fans have commiserated about their format. I have noticed three defineable paths developing in the postings.

First, now that HD-DVD is argueably on the ropes HDM no longer has a disc based future. In fact, some HD-DVD fans are suggesting that they will go back to DVD because it looks pretty good upconverted and is relatively inexpensive when compared to HDM on disc. However, when you go into any Brick & Motor and they have a HDM disc setup that includes a decent sound setup people stand and watch. They are enticed and this is not the way the consumer acts when looking at something that they have no interest in. Sometimes crowds will form and watch a whole movie in HD.

Second, BD will never overtake DVD and therefore will be relegated to a niche market. Once again I guess this is because HD-DVD was the only choice for a next gen HDM disc based product that could succeed here. Gee, did everyone here forget so soon how expensive laser disc and then DVD was to get into and to get started? Once the price of the product came down and the retailers started pushing the product J6P started buying and DVD pushed out tape and laser disc -- and that did not happen overnight.

Third, and this is where I am very surprised, HD in general will not take off because even if J6P purchases an HDTV he will not know how to hook it up to a any HD source. Wow, so you think that J6P is going to step into a store and see Nascar, Football, Baseball or his favorite movie playing on a HDTV with a HD audio setup and he is not going to want it? I guess some of you guys out there need to have your testosterone check.

Now to step back and take a look at this and try to put this in the perspective that everyone now seems to be debating is: High Definition is a dead cow, it will not work because J6P will not buy and if he does he is not smart enough to know the differance between SD and HD and will not know how to hook it up. HDM disc (BD) will not go mainstream because it is not HD-DVD because it is too expensive and J6P once again will not know the differance between upconverted SD and BD and finally J6P will not want HD because it is not selling for $100!

Quite frankly I find this take on the health of High Definition and its mediums a lark! And all of this just because it appears that BD won the format war?

 

[allargon]

Joe, laserdisc is an awful example. That NEVER achieved mainstream.

HD is popular because of the flatscreen form factor and the coming digital transition. HD would remain niche if everything were still $8k rear projection CRT's. LCD's are as cheap as $300 (or less) these days. Less than half of HDTV's have an HD source connected. This sucks, but it's true. Hell, most HD DVD and Blu-Ray players don't even come with component or HDMI cables. Many still have their components hooked to composite cables. I've been to plenty of friends houses and seen cable boxes hooked up to LCD's and plasmas with RF/coax cables and DVD players connected with RCA/composite cables. Selling a $500 Blu-Ray player is hard enough. Selling a $100 HDMI cable and a $50 extended warranty (easier, ironically) on top of that is another matter.

 

[csschrot]

Joe, Nice post. I have had a concern about both HD and Blu making from what I have seen from my job. I'm amazed how people will justify buying a $1000 - $3000 and then complain about spending $20 a month for HD programming. I would say that 80% of the people that come in (after buying their TV) and ask about upgrading their sat system for HD just can't justify spending that $20. To me if they can't justify that $20 how will they justify the $300 - $600 for a player and then the $25 - $35 per movie.

I don't think it would have matter who won the HDM Disc war they both would be having to deal with these types of customers. Also I still see that most people that have HDTV's still don't have sound system at all to go with the TV. That is why I think HDM will be a small market for a while.

I will go one step futher to say that 60% of all the customers that come in go with an OTA. Even though it is a large up front cost they recope the cost back quickly since there is no monthly charge.

Now again I could be completely wrong, which wouldn't be the first or last time.

Shawn

 

[jayn_j]

Good post, right up to the last conclusion. It raises a bunch of interesting points.

First, that guy watching the high def DVD is you and me, not J6P. J6P does watch the football game on the bigscreen, goes and buys one and then watches it on SD comcast because he doesn't know enough to learn about HD broadcast.

Second point, not fair to lump Laser with VHS. DVD killed laser in less than a year. There was a lot of speculation that a digital format with compression wouldn't have a better picture than LD's analog video, but that was quickly proven false. Videophiles abandoned LD and never looked back. VHS was another story. It didn't die until the mid-2000s when player prices came down and studios lowered DVD sell-through below VHS.

Third point, I have seen a lot of setups where a good HDTV is crippled by poor hookups. There are also examples all over this forum. HDTV setups with dedicated audio are even rarer. Virtually everyone throttles the sound through those 2 tinny speakers. Switching is simply too complicated, and most DVD players are hooked up through the RF path. Somehow it is easier to tune to channel 3. It isn't you or me, but it is the vast majority of systems.

Finally, although I was on the HD-DVD side for a number of reasons, I have been arguing that both sides are fighting for a niche market for some time now. Go into BB and listen to that sales-droid tell J6P that an upconverting player is "just as good". Look at both camps pushing technology instead of promoting these players as a great DVD player that can be even better if you put the right disc in. Add to that how they all miss the bet by not packaging HDMI with the player. That almost guarantees that the player will never reach full potential. Is J6P going to spring another $100 for that special Monster cable that BB is trying to push on him? He has no idea why he needs it, and it costs way too much. Monoprice to J6P? Don't make me laugh. If he is lucky, he will go into Target or Wally World and find that $35 Belden HDMI cable hidden back in the corner. Even then, why should he spend that much when a perfectly good composite cable is right in the box and easy to connect.

This really isn't a Blu vs Red issue. This is an issue of poor promotion, education and expectations. If it isn't addressed, this will always be a niche media.

 

[tonyp56]

Joe,

I would have to say, the chances of HD dying in America is less now than it was when there were two formats. All those that said we could have two formats were wrong. There can only be one in the end, and until there is one, neither was going to do much. Too much confusion, too much cross talk, too much war to really make up any ground.

If your wonderful company Sony, along with others does it right, this time next year, I bet Blu-Ray would certainly enter or be in the mainstream with real numbers (millions instead of thousands of disc sold per week). This will take Sony and followers going to HD-DVD camp and getting remaining studios, and perhaps giving HD-DVD owners an incentive to go out and buy Blu-Ray ($50 coupons, or 50% off player, etc.), and in my opinion, doing away with all issues and rumors of issues with player functionality and most importantly IMO future proofness of player (if I buy this player today, will I be able to use it a year from now? two?) Advertisements will have to be catching, and lets face it, prices for everyone will have to come down (Sub $200) for general public to go out and get.

If on the other hand, Sony screws it up, very likely you'll find Blu-Ray with HD-DVD on the shelf together collecting dust! (for HD movies, I'm sure Blu-Ray and HD-DVD storage solutions will be around). So it is up to your camp (mostly Sony, whom sorry sets the tone, market, etc. with PS3 and movies). If prices go up, or some other crazy thing, I'm sorry to say, I doubt Blu-Ray's future. Which future will it be?

I'll keep a open mind, and when I can afford it, I'll buy Blu-Ray... Thankfully, that will be a while, so I'll be able to be sure of Blu-Ray and its future before investing.

 

[rockymtnhigh]

Good post, right up to the last conclusion. It raises a bunch of interesting points.... snip

Nice post.

Indeed, an interesting thread. Its good to see a thread in this forum that raises interesting issues for discussion.

I am pleased that I already have raised my 10 year-old not to be J6P. He is an HD snob.

 

[jayn_j]

Nice post.

Indeed, an interesting thread. Its good to see a thread in this forum that raises interesting issues for discussion.

I am pleased that I already have raised my 10 year-old not to be J6P. He is an HD snob.

Thanks. The kids always "get it" first. Nothing is going to stand in the way of best possible xbox experience, or cartoons either.

 

[dfergie]

There are 15 on our crew at work... of those 15 , 6 have HD sets only 2 of us have HD receivers & players...

 

[JoeSp]

Another bit for thought -- would the inclusion of a HDMI cable with the HD player/settop box really help move HD in the right direction? Some of you are already saying this. And if so, why are the guys in the know not doing this? A mass produced decent HDMI cable can not possibly cost that much given the return to the HD media that it could provide. Here in Raleigh, NC the first 24/7 HD station provided antennas for HD reception for free when I first bought my first HDTV. That help get me into the HD love affair. I still have that antenna in my attic and at times I use it.

Also, I do find it rediculous that people will spend upwards of $3000 on a nice HDTV then balk a purchasing the HD pack from their content provider. Does anyone here think that Dishnetworks new HD pack for $29 (you can buy it by itself without all the junk channels) might spur more folks to poney up for HD content?

 

[dfergie]

When I got my H20 in 3 weeks ago, it had a Hdmi cable included... none of the dish receivers I have ever gotten did...

 

[allargon]

Another bit for thought -- would the inclusion of a HDMI cable with the HD player/settop box really help move HD in the right direction? Some of you are already saying this. And if so, why are the guys in the know not doing this? A mass produced decent HDMI cable can not possibly cost that much given the return to the HD media that it could provide. Here in Raleigh, NC the first 24/7 HD station provided antennas for HD reception for free when I first bought my first HDTV. That help get me into the HD love affair. I still have that antenna in my attic and at times I use it.

Also, I do find it rediculous that people will spend upwards of $3000 on a nice HDTV then balk a purchasing the HD pack from their content provider. Does anyone here think that Dishnetworks new HD pack for $29 (you can buy it by itself without all the junk channels) might spur more folks to poney up for HD content?

Joe, the retailers don't WANT the HDMI cable in the box. Margins are on the cheapest HD DVD standalones are allegedly $15. Margins on that Monster HDMI cable are almost pure profit. Costco and Sams Club stock the HD-D2/HD-D3 which has a HDMI cable included. Best Buy, Tweeter, Circuit City, Ultimate Electronics and even Fry's would not be too happy if Panasonic, Samsung, Sony, Toshiba and Philips started including HDMI cables in the box. That's where they make a much of their profit--accessories and warranties. I can't believe you don't see this.

Most spend $500-1200 on a 768p LCD HDTV. The 1080p sets are coming down in price. However, the bulk of HDTV's in the wild are 768p LCD's.

Dish's HD only pack may stem the turnover to DirecTV, cable and telcos a bit. However, we need to save that discussion for the satellite war zone.

 

[gadgtfreek]

There are 15 on our crew at work... of those 15 , 6 have HD sets only 2 of us have HD receivers & players...

You need to start cracking the whip and getting them more involved!

 

[MikeD-C05]

I think the price of HD dvr and Blu-Ray will always limit their future. 29.99-39.99 for a dvd that I can watch in sd upconverted for 14.99-19.99 is to much to pay. Now I think that dvds should sell for 9.99 and hd /blu ray dvds should sell for 19.99. That is much more in line with most peoples expectations and wallets. THey are pricing themselves to high and if they hadn't started the price war for their competing receivers a year or so ago , they wouldn't be selling those either. The price for an hd dvd player or blu- ray should be at 149.99 . That is much more in line with the comman mans price.

As to the different reasons why people don't use the hdmi cables for their new hd sets, this is obvious to me. They are not educated on the latest technology. A new tech that keeps changing every year and there are way too many competing tvs. You have rear projection, plasma, lcd, tube top -if you can still find them. Most people don't know the difference of which is better. I see hdtvs hooked up with coax all the time.

My parents had to be upgraded by me most of the time to the latest tech. I won't buy them a tv because they don't know what they want. I did get them a 622 hdtv receiver so they can see their locals ota . They don't like the hd channels for locals because they don't fit the screen when they show an sd program. THey don't want to push the format button to make it fit . Then again they are still watching a 95 Magnovox color tv via rca jacks through the combo dvd/vcr that I bought them too. They own NO dvds at all.

Then there is the cable problems. Which one do you need and how do they connect? My 2004 Toshibs dual ota tuners has dvi only . I had to get an hdmi to dvi cable. Still needed sound so I had to plug rca audio cable to my tv and hook up Toslink optical cable for my a/v receiver. In fact if you look behind by entertainment a/v rack that holds a vcr, dvd recorder, Cd juke box, a/v receiver, Dish 722 hd dvr, soon a Directv hd dvr also, you will see a jungle of cables , ethernet cables to my 722, rca jacks, coaxes, phone lines ,etc. IT is truely a mess and that is after I tried to clean it up. I recently added external hard drives to my dvrs so more cables and plugs. I know a little something about what I need from reading web boards for about 6 years now. I can only imagine the common man trying to figure out which ones they need . NOw I hear that wireless hd will be coming so we won't need any to see the picture and sound on your tvs. THEre is to many different options and no education for the average man out there who is confused .

All this to deal with and then there is the competing hd dvd/blue ray dvds fighting for my atttention. I have no room for any more componets or receivers. I will watch upconverted dvds on my dvd recorder that does hdmi. When the pissing match is over and the price drops to a reasonable amount and I am sure that this is the format we are staying with, I will buy. Is Hd dead in America? NO, but it will never be used to it full potential by the average consumer because the companies don't educate the public on what they need. Also to many options add to the confusion. So I think HD will still be a niche thing for the most part . Oh people will buy hdtvs because they won't have any others to choose from , but they most likely will use coax , rca jacks, or s-video because the average person doesn't spend time on the electronic web boards trying to figure out what they need.

 

[gadgtfreek]

As far as Joe's post, it asks some good questions.

I think Diogen summed it up well (did I just say that?). The BDA has a brief window to move on and get a good run at DVD. The positives I've seen are comments that they are changing their focus of advertising from "vs HDDVD" to "mass adoption". To me, the big issue now is getting Paramount and Universal to go neutral, and soon(next 6 mo's). I think if they go neutral soon, BD has a chance at passing niche, and it allows HDDVD to stay niche and not die. I do not believe that either of them will completely go blue, so it leaves movies out there for HDDVD owners. Good news is, Paramount is expected by end of QTR2 and the Best Buy rumor seems to have legs. Bad news is, it could be EOY before Universal goes neutral.

As far as the HDMI cables go, its just like the USB cable for printers, they want us suckers to pay for overpriced cables in the store. Very few actually buy their stuff from monoprice, etc.... When the average guy buys more into the HDM venue, the B&M stores will continue to sell them those $100 Monster cables.

After seeing December standalone sales(60/40 BD), I really think we should quit using the price as the BIG factor. Their is also confusion, and their are also those people that JUST bought an HDTV this Christmas. It'll be a bit before they buy any HDM format. A bud of mine picked up a PS3 and 50" plasma in December, but this is rare Im sure. I do like the idea of giving a free BD player to TV buyers(Panasonic and Sharp).

I'm not worried about Laserdisc's demise either, I don't think it can be compared, its just the next logical for the opponents. Blu was the next beta until WB moved, now Blu is the next Laserdisc Once Univ and Para go neutral, will Blu finally be the next DVD , I don't think so. I think Blu and DVD will coexist for a looooong time, until some digital service kills them both.

I also think its too early to worry about downloads. I think downloads will be dangerous if someone like Comcast offers a monthly sub for HD movie rentals, or starts offering $1.99 PPV prices. I personally am not buying a HD PPV at $4.99. The set tops coming are not as frightening because its another $300 box that isn't simple to setup. The average guys aren't buying a $300 movie player right now.

 

[gadgtfreek]

I think the price of HD dvr and Blu-Ray will always limit their future. 29.99-39.99 for a dvd that I can watch in sd upconverted for 14.99-19.99 is to much to pay. Now I think that dvds should sell for 9.99 and hd /blu ray dvds should sell for 19.99.

I agree with the second comment, but the prices are off in the first. People who pay $30 for a BD are not using their resources, like online shopping.

I just bought two BD's online for $40 shipped. I looked at next weeks purchase(Bourne Ultimatum) and it was $15 shipped. Now that makes no sense.

 

[dfergie]

I'm not worried about Laserdisc's demise either, I don't think it can be compared, its just the next logical for the opponents. Blu was the next beta until WB moved, now Blu is the next Laserdisc Once Univ and Para go neutral, will Blu finally be the next DVD , I don't think so. I think Blu and DVD will coexist for a looooong time, until some digital service kills them both.

I hit a big nerve with that... I used Laserdisc as a example, there were actually 2 of the big disc formats if I remember right...

I also think its too early to worry about downloads. I think downloads will be dangerous if someone like Comcast offers a monthly sub for HD movie rentals, or starts offering $1.99 PPV prices. I personally am not buying a HD PPV at $4.99.

I ordered 2 HD PPV's last weekend from Direct... same price as a rental, saves a 20+ mile round trip and you can keep the movie...

 

[db2]

I would have to say, the chances of HD dying in America is less now than it was when there were two formats. All those that said we could have two formats were wrong. There can only be one in the end, and until there is one, neither was going to do much. Too much confusion, too much cross talk, too much war to really make up any ground.

+1

 

[gadgtfreek]

I hit a big nerve with that... I used Laserdisc as a example, there were actually 2 of the big disc formats if I remember right...

Nah, I just think we should quit worrying about comparing these to old failures, this is a different day and age. I feel people are more informed more quickly. Lets face it, HDTV is hot too.

I ordered 2 HD PPV's last weekend from Direct... same price as a rental, saves a 20+ mile round trip and you can keep the movie...

I guess that I'm used to Netflix for so many years, $4.99 just seems steep.

Plus the fact my HD rental offering around here SUCKS. I would prob consider using PPV for the movies I don't want to own, BUT pretty much everything they show on PPV, Ill buy so it doesn't help me.

 

[dfergie]

Nah, I just think we should quit worrying about comparing these to old failures, this is a different day and age. I feel people are more informed more quickly. Lets face it, HDTV is hot too.

Thats just it... the average person out there doesn't look at forums on the net, they look at the news, weather, e-mail from friends and if very young hit My Space... HDTV is hot, but you still have to get them a HD source hooked up correctly

 

[gadgtfreek]

Thats just it... the average person out there doesn't look at forums on the net, they look at the news, weather, e-mail from friends and if very young hit My Space... HDTV is hot, but you still have to get them a HD source hooked up correctly

I agree.

What I really meant was news travels fast. I mean the WB thing made CNN. Then all the HDDVD dead stuff the following week and the Paramount rumor on Reuters and such.

I think HDDVD's lack of ad's and BD's increase of ads is not helping them.

The PS3 adds are good, and there was a good BD ad during the Patriots game(from what I understand).