The Red Sox, as of this moment, after beating the Yankees this afternoon, trail Tampa by seven, Baltimore and Detroit by six and Los Angeles and Oakland by five and a half.
The Red Sox have 41 games left, the Angels have 42, Tampa Bay, Baltimore and Detroit have 43 and Oakland has 44. These numbers will change in a few hours.
So if the Red Sox manage to win seven out of ten down the stretch, but if any two teams ahead of them win six out of ten, the Red Sox miss the wild card by about two games.
Simple arithmetic says that since the five teams they trail each have won only 53 to 54% of the games they have played, then if they continued to do so, the Red Sox could catch them by playing .700 ball for the remaining six weeks, but unfortunately, compound probabilities don't work like that. It is likely that two of those four teams will win more than 53 to 54% while two will win less. So the Red Sox will also need an 8-2 stretch to crawl back into this,
The Red Sox ace in the hole might be Aceves. Bailey has now pitched three times in four days, and if he is installed as the closer, Aceves can replace Cook or (gulp) Beckett in the rotation. Jon Lester, who is finally rolling, has nine starts remaining, including the final game of the regular season against the Yankees.