Android vs. iOS gadgets: predictions for the year 2011

[diogen]

Even before 2010 ended, publications from Fortune to TechCrunch to others started the prediction game: what will happen to the biggest rivalry in gadget world.

Everybody accepts the simple facts:
- Apple started/redefined the business of smartphones and tablets (just like PC)
- Apple is highly profitable in selling either (just like PC)
- Their market leadership in both is eroding fast (just like PC)

The difference is this time around Google is playing Microsoft role from the PC era...

The question every "prophet" answers differently is "Where do we go from here?"

- some believe history will repeat itself and Apple will end up having 10% marketshare and make the most money (just like PC);

Growth targets are just starting to trickle out, but HTC, who make high end Android devices and a few Windows Phone 7 devices expect to triple their 2010 output in 2011. Yet if things play out the way Rubin, Google, Broadcom and HTC hope, even that may wind up being a conservative estimate for Android growth. What's most interesting is that unless Apple (AAPL) has a plan to keep up, their iPhone, once one of the only usable smartphone games in town, may wind up back where most Apple products are slotted-- at the top of the market, affordable only to those willing and able to pay a premium for Steve Jobs' aesthetic sensibilities.

- others believe Apple will release cheap iPhones and compete for marketshare this time around

I think Apple will sell a ton of devices because they’re good, and superbly marketed. I think a bunch of people will sell a ton of Android devices because they’re good and there are so many options for different needs and networks and price-points.

I wouldn’t be surprised if Apple shipped a cheap iPhone. And there’s nothing fundamental in Android that would get in the way of a industrial-design and user-experience rock-star team, whether at Google or one of the handset makers, testing the hypothesis that these things are central to Apple’s success.

- others believe there is nothing in common between 2011 and 1995 because iOS has most of the developers and distribution channels

So, when someone says that Apple is repeating the mistakes of 1995 (yes, I’ve been guilty of saying that in the past couple of years too) you should tell them that 2011 is not even close to the same set of conditions as 1995 has.

It would be really interesting to see how these predictions play out...

There is even hope that North America will start grasping Grade 1 math among other things

The insanely-high volume of mobile-device sales isn’t going to ease off any time soon.

Like Horace Dediu says, “the bottom of the phone market is very vulnerable to becoming smart”. The future of bone-simple “Feature phones” isn’t over, but their days in the overwhelming majority are numbered. Go ask Gordon Moore.

Android and iOS will do really well. RIM and Nokia are headed for market-share declines; but it would be perfectly possible for either of them to halt their slide.

Windows Phone 7 might start getting some real traction; I wouldn’t be surprised either way.

An unencumbered high-end handset at around $500 is cheaper than the same device at $199 with a contract. I wonder if someone will notice this and offer conventional financing packages like you can get for fridges and TVs.

Diogen.

EDIT:
This prediction I liked the most

Apple will totally do a 7" device. Anyone who’s spent quality time reading books or playing games on the Galaxy Tab knows; there’s a great big hole in the ecosystem that needs something bigger than a handset but that still fits in one hand and you can use for four hours in a row sitting up. This argument is over.

I'd love to see St. Jobs' spin on Apple releasing a DOA-size tablet...

 

[TheForce]

If Jobs does a 7" device it will not be an ipad 7" model because many of the apps will not fit on that form factor. Of course you wouldn't know this unless you had an ipad and used some apps that were designed around the ipad form factor. I just installed one today that would be greatly limited if done on any aspect ratio and size other than the ipad. It is a dual keyboard piano that two people can play sitting opposite each other for a duet. The piano is real sounding and nice size keys easy to play like a regular short piano keyboard.
Now I could see Jobs making a cut down version of the ipad for a primary camera and video conferencing device, web browser, reader, e-mail, weather and such. Games would be limited as well as log entry and some financial multi data displays like the Bloomberg app, CNBC app and the Ameritrade app would be very difficult on anything smaller than the ipad. Then making it a clam shell with hard keyboard. More like a really small airbook, as opposed to a cut down ipad. Now we have the option of a netbook like device that fits in your coat pocket and is light and can do spreadsheets, data and minimal creation tasks.

 

[mike123abc]

They could just keep the same number of pixels and increase pixel density to fit it to 7", you would just need better eyesite to use it.

 

[t3ch3nthusiast]

ios, android and iphone all in one

i wish we could have the best of this 3 mobile os, just like this concept, the combination of ios, wp7 and android:

YouTube - 02 - Imagine Alpha - Notification, Widgets and Folders
YouTube - 01 - Imagine Alpha - Promo Trailer

 

[diogen]

Since the traditional bean counters like IDC and Gartner are now in the prediction business, I thought I'll give it a shot.
I'll try the same way I did for the Blu-ray vs. DVD around the time BD won the hidef war against HD-DVD, i.e. beginning of 2008.
Three years later, it turned out, I was much closer to reality than most of the corporate "prophets"...
http://www.satelliteguys.us/hd-dvd-forum/240626-hd-vs-sd-two-years-later.html#post2437109

I will start with the assumption that the iOS vs. Android war in the tablet market will be similar to the war the same players waged in the smartphone market.
But since the number of players in each of these markets it so different, we will look only at the relative market share between Android and iOS.
According to this article Android had 1/6 the market share iOS held over the course of 2010.
Some references claim it was closer to 1/5 by the end of 2010 but we'll see later that this hardly matters.

Around the end of 2009 (if you check this post) Android had 1/10 of iOS market in September and 1/5 - in December.
And this post shows the time when Android and iOS had about the same smartphone OS marketshare - November 2010.
In other words, Android jumped from being not more than 1/5 to par with iOS in marketshare over the course of one year.

Again, we are neither looking at the marketshare numbers per-se (only relative), nor taking into account other players regardless of their share and role.
I assume that both, Google and Apple, will "fight" in the tablet market the same way they did in the smartphone and their relative dynamics will be comparable.

I think one correction is needed.
I believe Apple realizes that they can't be as "greedy" in the tablet market as they were in the smartphone (much less of a must-have item) and will sell their tablets at a lower profit margin. Also, Google will have a harder time to keep their partners happy and both those factors will double the chase time (I know, very un-scientific).

Bottom line, based on what is outlined above, here is my prediction: not later than in two years,
1Q 2013, Android and iOS will have about the same tablet OS market share.

I don't know what that share will be and whether any of the two will be the leader - my claim is that they will be on par.

Will see what happens...

Diogen.

 

[diogen]

There is even hope that North America will start grasping Grade 1 math among other things)

It might happen one day...
Carriers: act swiftly if you want to save the low-end smartphone | This is my next...

Diogen.