Deal or No Deal season premiere....

[BobMurdoch]

OK, you may or may not care about this, but for those of us that have empty hard drives on our DVRs at this point in the summer, anything new is noteworthy......

Plus, they are teasing that they have their first million dollar winner, so it may be an interesting view to see what happens when someone takes down the top prize....

Tonight at 8pm ET on NBC....

 

[Scott Greczkowski]

I may watch it tonight, but what excitement is it if you know the person is going to win the money? Kind of takes away the excitement of the show for me.

I also think that they are killing the show by syndicating it for 5 days a week. Thats what killed Who Wants to be a Millionare.

 

[Need]

The only way I see someone winning a million is either

1) There are multiple million dollars on the board and the last 2 left are both $1 mil.
2) There is a $1 mil + (like $2 mil) on the board and the offer is $1 mil.

Other than that, I don't see anyone will go to the last case. Even if the last 2 amounts are $1 mil and $750k, the offer would be somewhere in the middle around $875k. Why gamble $125k?

 

[ECUPirates]

As my brother pointed out to me, the promos say "Meet the Million Dollar Winner". They do not say that they will win tonight.

 

[BobMurdoch]

The only way I see someone winning a million is either

1) There are multiple million dollars on the board and the last 2 left are both $1 mil.
2) There is a $1 mil + (like $2 mil) on the board and the offer is $1 mil.

Other than that, I don't see anyone will go to the last case. Even if the last 2 amounts are $1 mil and $750k, the offer would be somewhere in the middle around $875k. Why gamble $125k?

I think my program guide states that there are 4 million dollar cases, which would raise the chances that a few $1M boxes could stick around until the final boxes are left.

 

[BobMurdoch]

As my brother pointed out to me, the promos say "Meet the Million Dollar Winner". They do not say that they will win tonight.

Yeah, it sounds a little fishy.... They've teased these shows in the past and left me feeling cheated..... We'll see.....

 

[cosmo_kramer]

I think my program guide states that there are 4 million dollar cases, which would raise the chances that a few $1M boxes could stick around until the final boxes are left.

But, didn't they have almost half the board with $1M at some point last season??

 

[BobMurdoch]

As long as folks have one or two low value boxes left in play, they will bail once there are less than two or three big value boxes left, whether they started with 1 or 11 boxes.....

The lady that won the most, $750,000, did so by playing a game where the maximum win amount was something like $2M and there were two boxes left.... $750K and $1M.... She went for it, but her box had the $750K, so she is the only so far to have a crack at $1M and go for it.... but she came up short.....

I think the likely scenario tonight, is that she has 3 boxes left.... something like $1000, and 2 $1M boxes, and then she picks one more and eliminates the $1000 box.... only way I can see it happening....

Off topic, one of my fave game show moments was the following..... especially since it was a total surprise, and it happened in such dramatic fashion....
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D4McSpANs4c&feature=related

 

[Scott Greczkowski]

Well guess what, NBC pulled a fast one...

SHE DIDN'T WIN. She walked away with $5000.

What a curveball!

 

[PhilAce]

She should have switched cases. The odds say it is in the one the model has.

 

[Need]

I guess I was wrong! There are people who are crazy that will go all the way. Why in the world would you risk $530k??? The chance that $1 mil in her case was 4/26 or 2/13. And if she switch case in the end, her odd goes up to 22/26 or 11/13. But even with that, why would you risk $530k to win $470k? She could take $470k to Vegas, put it on Red and it would have better odd. Even if she lost, she get to keep $60k.

 

[hdtvtechno]

They mentioned
The Million Dollar winner will be on next monday

 

[Skyhi]

She should have switched cases. The odds say it is in the one the model has.

not true. there was a 50% chance it was with the model and a 50% chance it was with the contestant.

 

[jayn_j]

not true. there was a 50% chance it was with the model and a 50% chance it was with the contestant.

Not true. This is the old classic Monte Hall problem. When the contestant first picked the case there were 26 cases, 4 of which contained the Million. Thus her chances of picking the million dollar case were 4:26. Opening all those other cases didn't change those odds at all, and at the end, if there is a million dollar case left, the odds are 22:26 that the case still being held by the model contains the million. The contestant should always switch.

 

[Need]

not true. there was a 50% chance it was with the model and a 50% chance it was with the contestant.

Statistics will say that it is always better to switch. Check out the Monty Hall problem.

Monty Hall Problem

 

[Skyhi]

Not true. This is the old classic Monte Hall problem. When the contestant first picked the case there were 26 cases, 4 of which contained the Million. Thus her chances of picking the million dollar case were 4:26. Opening all those other cases didn't change those odds at all, and at the end, if there is a million dollar case left, the odds are 22:26 that the case still being held by the model contains the million. The contestant should always switch.

i stand corrected....im normally a pretty sharp guy.

 

[BrianB]

Not true. This is the old classic Monte Hall problem. When the contestant first picked the case there were 26 cases, 4 of which contained the Million. Thus her chances of picking the million dollar case were 4:26. Opening all those other cases didn't change those odds at all, and at the end, if there is a million dollar case left, the odds are 22:26 that the case still being held by the model contains the million. The contestant should always switch.

Actually, that's not true. Because Deal or no Deal is random (no host involved in what choice you have) the Monty Hall scenario does not apply.

Monty Hall problem - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

"This problem appears similar to the television show Deal or No Deal, however with each selection the Deal or No Deal player is just as likely to open the winning box as a losing one. Monty on the other hand, knows the contents and is forbidden from revealing the winner. Assuming the grand prize is still left with two boxes remaining, the Deal or No Deal player has a 50/50 chance that the initially selected box contains the grand prize."

 

[BrianB]

i stand corrected....im normally a pretty sharp guy.

And you still are.

 

[BobMurdoch]

OK, is it a cultural thing? Not to be labeled a racist, but I've seen this a dozen times where a female African American contestant swears that God has told her that she has the big money case, and then ignores all rational decision making and runs right over a cliff and walks away with almost nothing. Meanwhile, folks from other cultural backgrounds would bail once there was only one big case left. At least, it looks like she can take that talented voice of hers and get a shot at Broadway out of this....

Man, I'm really opening myself up here to getting massively flamed, but I saw this same thing happen a half dozen times over the last year or two....

I can't believe she went as far as she did, but there is NO way I would have turned town a guaranteed $550K to go after the million.... I could see myself going for it if the cases were $500K and $1M, but NOT $5K and $1M. That's just insane.

 

[Need]

OK, is it a cultural thing? Not to be labeled a racist, but I've seen this a dozen times where a female African American contestant swears that God has told her that she has the big money case, and then ignores all rational decision making and runs right over a cliff and walks away with almost nothing. Meanwhile, folks from other cultural backgrounds would bail once there was only one big case left. At least, it looks like she can take that talented voice of hers and get a shot at Broadway out of this....

Man, I'm really opening myself up here to getting massively flamed, but I saw this same thing happen a half dozen times over the last year or two....

I can't believe she went as far as she did, but there is NO way I would have turned town a guaranteed $550K to go after the million.... I could see myself going for it if the cases were $500K and $1M, but NOT $5K and $1M. That's just insane.

Forget about $550k.... I can't believe she turned down the earlier offer of $200K+ something. She could have ended up with a penny. You can see how upset her sister? was when she didn't take the offer. And when she didn't take the $550K, the whole family was saying WTF?