My own conclusion: MPEG4 upgrade will be free.

[markusian]

Here is what I've heard so far:

- On the chat when they announced MPEG4, they said: “little or no cost to upgrade.”
- In the Team Summit: The next HD MPEG4 receiver is the 411. It will replace both 811 and the 311. No more MPEG2.
- In the last retailer chat, Charlie told retailers that they need to swap 25 million receivers because of MPEG4 over the next three years. That’s everything including SD. Do you expect them to charge every single customer? Even the ones passively paying their bills?
- In the same retailer chat, they implied that they don’t want to distribute more HD DVRs to existing customers. I’m assuming it is because it is going to cost them most to upgrade. Cost them, not me.

-Mark

 

[korsjs]

you might be right, you might be wrong, no one knows, not even charlie.

 

[NightRyder]

I imagine E* will follow whatever D* does. I expect D* to have at least part of their LIL-HD markets up before E* starts the transition. So we'll see.


NightRyder

 

[GaryPen]

Here is what I heard so far:

- On the chat when they announced MPEG4, they said: “little or no cost to upgrade.”
- In the Team Summit: The next HD MPEG4 receiver is the 411. It will replace both 811 and the 311. No more MPEG2.
- In the last retailer chat, Charlie told retailers that they need to swap 25 million receivers because of MPEG4 over the next three years. That’s everything including SD. Do you expect them to charge every single customer? Even the ones passively paying their bills?
- In the same retailer chat, they implied that they don’t want to distribute more HD DVRs to existing customers. I’m assuming it is because it is going to cost them most to upgrade. Cost them, not me.

-Mark

first of all, "little or no cost" does not mean free, not definitely, at least.

My opinion, based on Dish's history:
If Dish offers financial incentives to upgrade to MPEG4, it is doubtful it will be for the full cost of the equipment. Plus...
-There will be limits to the number of discount/free receiver upgrades.
-There will be preference towards new customers.
-There will be serious term commitments involved.
-There will be some financial requirement from the sub, especially existing subs. (Think of the $250 fee to LEASE the 942.)

Does anybody really think otherwise based on Dish's history? Hope and wishing for a free upgrade is wonderful. But, reality dictates otherwise.

 

[Stargazer]

I think the upgrades will be free. Why do I say this? Because I know for a fact that whoever gets charged for an upgrade will go in flocks to DirecTv or back to cable. Cable would LOVE to take advantage of the situation with some negative advertising. Dish would stand to lose more than what the upgrades cost if they lose a major part of their subscriber base. The same goes for DirecTv. Even if they offer a free upgrade but still require a commitment they could also lose a LOT of customers this way. The customers will say that they should not have to commit to programming they have already recieved for an x number of years and already made their commitment a while back.

Neither Dish Network nor DirecTv wants to end up losing customers to each other because that would just cost them more money. Directv would stand to lose more money since they have more subscribers than Dish Network. By losing customers to each other that would defeat the purpose in lowering the transition cost but actually increase them dramatically as it would cause them to have to pay new customer acuisition costs. They would also lose some customers to cable (or perhaps Verizon and other emerging companies by the time this takes effect) to boot.

Basically they would either have to do a free swapout or lose a lot of their subscriber base.

 

[BFG]

Exactly, if they want to go MPEG4 they have to pay for it. Otherwise all their customers will just leave if they expect them all to pay the price to pay for their upgrade.

 

[franohern]

Reading between the lines, Charlie essentially said that all subscribers are moving to mpeg-4. That means all current boxes will be obsolete. It will be a huge cost for Dish to replace everyone's box, but can you imagine the cost of the class action lawsuit they'll be hit with when they tell all their subscribers that they have to buy new boxes or lose the service? Talk about bait and switch. Now they may try a couple of things to offest the cost to them. One might be to offer a plane jane box as replacement, pro-rate the "freeness" of the new box according to the age of the box it is replacing, and then offer boxes with more features for more money, allowing them to recoup much of the cost. Or maybe this is where they move everyone to a lease only setup. And don't forget, they will be able to take a huge charge against their earnings as they write off the old boxes they essentially have to 'buy" back from their subscribers. There is no way for Dish to keep from eating a large part of the cost of this transition. But If they try to force everyone to buy new recievers, the cost of the lost subscribers, bad publicity, and the hit their stock price will take will be even higher.

 

[klen]

If MPEG-4 allows them to carry a lot more channels, then they may try to make it up with new package pricing. A lot easier on the customer. If they don't want more channels, keep them at their current package level.

jmo

-k

 

[Poke]

Well in the long Run nice thing with MPEG4 less bandwidth which means less Satellites. Which in the long run Dish will not need as many birds to offer more channels which really means lower cost. So if anything they could lower their price.

 

[BFG]

Umm where did you get the idea that they'll be REMOVING satellites, because that's totally false. In fact they have 1 more orbital that channels will be added to - 129.

But if you're talking about national channels, then yes with MPEG4 they plan is to have all national HDTV and SDTV put back on 110/119 (which isn't that many to begin with)

 

[rvsixer]

DISH is going to give something away free...not imo . The customer base pays the bills, either up front or over time via subscription fees.

 

[Scott Greczkowski]

Of course on yesterdays earnings calls Charlie said the customer is going to have to burden some of the costs of upgrading to MPEG4 since they will be getting additional services.

So anythings possible.

I am starting to learn something about Charlie, if you do not like his answer to a question, wait a few moments then reword the question and ask him again. (Repeat as needed until you get an answer you like)

 

[dmodemd]

See my thoughts on this here: http://www.dbstalk.com/showthread.php?t=41598

 

[ocaddict]

I think the upgrades will be free. Why do I say this? Because I know for a fact that whoever gets charged for an upgrade will go in flocks to DirecTv or back to cable.

I disagree with that. I have to think quite a few folks out there are in my boat, in that there is not cable alternative, so this is why we are on satellite in the first place. Now, given a choice to pay a few $$ or switch my entire setup over to *D? I think I'll stay with my current setup. Of course I could be in the minority here, but this is just MHO.

 

[Harry]

Here is what I've heard so far:

- On the chat when they announced MPEG4, they said: “little or no cost to upgrade.”

For E*, not for us.

- In the last retailer chat, Charlie told retailers that they need to swap 25 million receivers because of MPEG4 over the next three years. That’s everything including SD. Do you expect them to charge every single customer? Even the ones passively paying their bills?

Yes. How can E* replace 25 million receivers w/out charging the subscriber? Even at $1 each cost, that's $25 million. Too bad they didn't design the receivers to be upgradable with a chip or board.

 

[jlhugh]

All I have are DVR's. I haven'e seen anything about those yet. I guess those will probably be the last to get the upgrades? I hope not.

 

[ocaddict]

For E*, not for us.




Yes. How can E* replace 25 million receivers w/out charging the subscriber? Even at $1 each cost, that's $25 million. Too bad they didn't design the receivers to be upgradable with a chip or board.

These receivers are simply computers running *E's version of an OS. I know w/out a doubt they are upgradable in some form or fashion physically, but curious as to why E* says they will not upgrade them to be MPEG-4 capable.

 

[mattb]

The chips for MPEG2 are different than MPEG4, it would require a big change in the motherboard for them to upgrade the receivers, thus is why its probally cheaper for them to just release new receivers than do an "send us back your receiver we update the chip" option (if that's even possible)

 

[dmodemd]

The chips are on a decoder card... they can just swap out that card, at least on the newest receivers that were designed thinking ahead a little bit.

I bought a US Robotics modem 14.4 Kbps and I upgraded it to 16.8, 19.2, 28.8, 33.6, and then 56K through a combination of software and daughtercard replacements yet keeping the same motherboard, case, etc... over a period of several years. If the design is modular it can be upgraded. They wont let YOU do it, but it will allow an exchange program.

 

[ocaddict]

Sometimes makes ya wish they'd make special arrangements for "techies" like us to let us do our own upgrades. But then they'd have eeediots doing it also resulting in multitudes of RMA's. LOL