Time to move on folks

[TalonDancer]

AMC-14's launch was botched Regardless of what becomes of AMC-14 now, the other new Dish satellites will probably have a much greater impact on Dish's near term offerings.

So when are these new satellites being launched?
What are their capabilities?
Can any of them "replace AMC-14" in terms of capabilities? and
Can they salvage Dish's plans for new locals and national HD offerings?

Talon Dancer

p.s. I did search for this info but it has been swamped by the most recent events

 

[dodge]

quit being so pessimisstic
the only way it was botched is because Charlie is too Damn cheap to penny up for Speed HD!!!

 

[kstuart]

EchoStar 11 is being launched this spring.

It is a high power CONUS satellite that will be paired at 110 with E*10, the super-spot-beam satellite.

The extra power will allow E* to squeeze a few more channels at 110, and free up another satellite to go to a different slot.

E* already had plans for that freed-up satellite, so any current planned launches cannot make up for the loss of AMC-14, which was designed to work at 61.5 .

Same thing with CIEL-2, which will replace E*5 at 129 in the fall, with added spot beam capability. It is specifically designed for the 129 slot, due to the partial use there for Canada.

My guess: AMC-14's fuel will be used to get it to 61.5, and a deal will be struck with the insurance company to get only partial payment for the satellite, which will then be replaced in 2012 or so.

Remember that E*4 is being used by Dish, despite E* being compensated entirely for its loss...

 

[Poke]

Yeah I think it will be fine.. If not mistaken I think they have room to add some new HD so lets hope they stop dragging their feet and turn on some new channels. Or at least the ones that they can until they get the new Sat's up and running.

 

[TalonDancer]

Thanks kstuart.

So CIEL-2 was the replacement for the wounded E*5 at 129. But E*5 is not dead yet (I get all my HD off of it). So once CIEL-2 is up, can E*5 still be used to add new HD locals or HD nationals?

How important are the "other plans" for E*10? Can it be kept in place and cover for the loss of AMC-14 at 110 instead of 61.5?

And more importantly, how much can Dish squeeze out of it's existing sats by reducing or eliminating the duplication of national HD on 129 and 61.5?

Talon Dancer

FWIW I'm not being pessimistic. The launch of AMC-14 was botched or it would already be heading to it's location as planned. I'm being realistic. AMC-14 may get back in the mix. But I'd call that a long shot which depends more on lawyers and insurance policy wording than science and/or good sense.

 

[Stargazer]

The more they move E5 the less life it will have left. I think it is already on it's last legs aint it?

 

[jayn_j]

EchoStar 11 is being launched this spring.

It is a high power CONUS satellite that will be paired at 110 with E*10, the super-spot-beam satellite.

The extra power will allow E* to squeeze a few more channels at 110, and free up another satellite to go to a different slot.

E* already had plans for that freed-up satellite, so any current planned launches cannot make up for the loss of AMC-14, which was designed to work at 61.5 .

Same thing with CIEL-2, which will replace E*5 at 129 in the fall, with added spot beam capability. It is specifically designed for the 129 slot, due to the partial use there for Canada.

My guess: AMC-14's fuel will be used to get it to 61.5, and a deal will be struck with the insurance company to get only partial payment for the satellite, which will then be replaced in 2012 or so.

Remember that E*4 is being used by Dish, despite E* being compensated entirely for its loss...

I would be very surprised to see CIEL-2 launch this year, as it uses the same upper stage that just failed for AMC-14. They will likely delay the launch until either a different upper stage has been designed in to the launch or the failure team has concluded its investigation and modifications designed in. My guess would be at least a 6 month delay for CIEL-2.

I also don't believe that AMC-14 will ever get to 61.5, although I am working from the same limited data as everyone else here, so that is pure speculation.

 

[Hemi 6.1]

EchoStar 11 is being launched this spring.

Late Spring IN JUNE!

 

[mike123abc]

E5 will probably just be an in orbit spare for a short period of time then sent to the atmosphere. The fuel consumption will go down if they do not have to keep it pointed at the earth all the time, but by the time Ciel-2 gets up E5 will be almost out of fuel. This will be a real crisis if C2 gets delayed.

E8 is the one at 110 that will be turned off. E6 is already filed to be moved to 77 (if approved by the FCC). E8 will be the spare in case something happens to E7, E10, or E11.

 

[tigerfan33]

I think we can start doing the real speculating for Dish's plans on the next 5 or 6 Wednesdays. The uplink reports. I think then we will see what kind of direction Dish will be going in. (With Scotts input from his pals at Dish)

 

[nelson61]

Long tern, I'd guess that Echostar might be looking at leasing some other capacity, probably from AMC to cover the gap. Some more shuffling is likely to occur in the next year. They have 2 new extended KU band satellites scheduled for launch late summer 2009 ( 109&121) and might be able to get some capacity there. Echostar 14 is under contract for construction and was tentatively schedule for 119 location, but it it far out on delivery.

 

[Juan]

I wonder if AMC has on the ground spare much like Sirius and XM

 

[Hemi 6.1]

I wonder if AMC has on the ground spare much like Sirius and XM

If they do, How long before it could be launched?

 

[navychop]

As noted, I wouldn't count on a prompt Ciel-2 launch, since it also uses the Breeze-M upper stage. These upper stages have been problematic. If the insurance companies decide not to cover any launches using the Breeze upper stage, it's pretty much a goner for commercial launches. But there's already a replacement in the works, well along in development. That might be sped into service early. (frightening thought, no?)

I suspect a replacement launch is about 2 years away, minimum, just for the slot. I've read the AMC-14 was 4 years in the making. Well, now that the design is done, I suspect they can built a near-duplicate in less time than they can get a launch slot. So it might only be 2 to 3 years away from replacement, not 4. With a reasonable insurance settlement and luck and skill in getting AMC-14 into place (albeit late), it may well last long enough to see it's replacement relieve it on station.