Update on Dish's Satellites Health

mwgiii

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During the Earnings Conference Call, Dish said that they have had anomalies of Echostar 12 (Rainbow 1).

Here is the section from the 10Q for all of the satellites:

6. Satellites
We presently have 14 owned or leased satellites in orbit. Each of the satellites we own had an original minimum useful life of at least 12 years. Our satellite fleet is a major component of our EchoStar DBS System. While we believe that overall our satellite fleet is generally in good condition, during 2006 and prior periods, certain satellites in our fleet have experienced anomalies, some of which have had a significant adverse impact on their commercial operation. We currently do not carry insurance for any of our owned in-orbit satellites. We believe we have in-orbit satellite capacity sufficient to expeditiously recover transmission of most programming in the event one of our in-orbit satellites fails. However, programming continuity cannot be assured in the event of multiple satellite losses.
Recent developments with respect to certain of our satellites are discussed below.


EchoStar I
EchoStar I, which was launched during December 1995, currently operates at the 148 degree orbital location. During the second quarter of 2006, the satellite experienced anomalies resulting in the possible loss of two solar array strings. An investigation of the anomalies is continuing. The anomalies have not impacted commercial operation of the satellite to date. Even if permanent loss of the two solar array strings is confirmed, the original minimum 12-year design life of the satellite is not expected to be impacted since the satellite is equipped with a total of 104 solar array strings, only approximately 98 of which are required to assure full power availability for the design life of the satellite. However, there can be no assurance future anomalies will not cause further losses which could impact the remaining life or commercial operation of the satellite.


EchoStar III
EchoStar III, which was launched during October 1997, currently operates at the 61.5 degree orbital location. The satellite was originally designed to operate a maximum of 32 transponders at approximately 120 watts per channel, switchable to 16 transponders operating at over 230 watts per channel, and was equipped with a total of 44 transponders to provide redundancy. Prior to 2006, traveling wave tube amplifier (“TWTA”) anomalies have caused 22 transponders to fail. During April 2006, further TWTA anomalies caused the failure of two additional transponders. As a result, a maximum of 20 transponders are currently available for use on EchoStar III, but due to redundancy switching limitations and specific channel authorizations, we can only operate 16 of the 19 FCC authorized frequencies we have the right to utilize at the 61.5 degree location. While we don’t expect a large number of additional TWTAs to fail in any year, and the failures have not reduced the original minimum12-year design life of the satellite, it is likely that additional TWTA failures will occur from time to time in the future, and those failures will further impact commercial operation of the satellite.


EchoStar V
[FONT=&quot]EchoStar V, which was launched during September 1999, currently operates at the 129 degree orbital location. The satellite was originally designed with a minimum 12-year design life. As previously disclosed, momentum wheel failures in prior years, together with relocation of the satellite between orbital locations, resulted in increased fuel consumption. These issues have not impacted commercial operation of the satellite, but have reduced the remaining spacecraft life to approximately two years as of June 30, 2006. Prior to 2006, EchoStar V also experienced anomalies resulting in the loss of six solar array strings. During July 2006, the satellite lost an additional solar array string. The solar array anomalies have not impacted commercial operation of the satellite to date. Since the satellite only has an approximate two year life, the solar array failures (which would normally have resulted in a reduction in the number of transponders to which power can be provided in later years), are not expected to reduce the current remaining life of the satellite. However, there can be no assurance that future anomalies will not cause further losses which could impact commercial operation, or the remaining life, of the satellite. See discussion of evaluation of impairment in “ Long-Lived Satellite Assets ” below.

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EchoStar VI
EchoStar VI, which was launched during July 2000, is currently stationed at the 110 degree orbital location as an in-orbit spare. The satellite was originally equipped with 108 solar array strings, approximately 102 of which are required to assure full power availability for the original minimum 12-year design life of the satellite. Prior to 2006, EchoStar VI experienced anomalies resulting in the loss of 15 solar array strings. During 2006, two additional solar array strings failed, reducing the number of functional solar array strings to 91. While the design life of the satellite has not been affected, commercial operability has been reduced. The satellite was designed to operate 32 transponders at approximately 125 watts per channel, switchable to 16 transponders operating at approximately 225 watts per channel. The power reduction resulting from the solar array failures limits us to operation of a maximum of 26 transponders in standard power mode, or 13 transponders in high power mode currently. The number of transponders to which power can be provided will continue to decline in the future at the rate of approximately one transponder every three years. See discussion of evaluation of impairment in “ Long-Lived Satellite Assets ” below.


EchoStar VII
EchoStar VII, which was launched during February 2002, currently operates at the 119 degree orbital location. During March 2006, the satellite experienced an anomaly which resulted in the loss of a receiver. Service was quickly restored through a spare receiver. These receivers process signals sent from our uplink center, for transmission back to earth by the satellite. The anomaly is not expected to result in the loss of other receivers on the satellite. However, there can be no assurance future anomalies will not cause further receiver losses which could impact the useful life or commercial operation of the satellite. In the event the spare receiver placed in operation following the March 2006 anomaly also fails, there would be no impact to the satellite’s ability to provide service to the continental United States (“CONUS”) when operating in CONUS mode. However, we would lose one-fifth of the spot beam capacity when operating in spot beam mode.


EchoStar X
[FONT=&quot]EchoStar X was launched during February 2006 and commenced commercial operation during the second quarter of 2006. The satellite currently operates at the 110 degree orbital location. Its 49 spot beams use up to 42 active 140 watt TWTAs to provide standard and high definition local channels, and other programming, to markets across the United States.[/FONT]

EchoStar XII
[FONT=&quot]EchoStar XII, which we purchased in orbit from a third party during 2005, currently operates at the 61.5 degree orbital location. The satellite was originally launched during July 2003. EchoStar XII was designed to operate 13 transponders at 270 watts per channel, in CONUS mode, or 22 spot beams using a combination of 135 and 65 watt TWTAs. We currently operate the satellite in CONUS mode. EchoStar XII has a total of 24 solar array circuits, approximately 22 of which are required to assure full power for the original minimum 12 year design life of the satellite. Prior to our purchase, two solar array circuits failed, one of which was subsequently restored to partial use. Between February and April 2006, two additional solar array circuits failed. The cause of the failures is being investigated. While the design life of the satellite has not been affected, in future years the power loss will cause a reduction in the number of transponders which can be operated. The exact extent of this impact has not yet been determined. There can be no assurance future anomalies will not cause further losses, which could further impact commercial operation of the satellite or its useful life. See discussion of evaluation of impairment in “ Long-Lived Satellite Assets ” below.

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Long-Lived Satellite Assets
[FONT=&quot]We account for long-lived satellite assets in accordance with the provisions of Statement of Financial Accounting Standards No. 144, “ Accounting for the Impairment or Disposal of Long-Lived Assets ” (“SFAS 144”). SFAS 144 requires a long-lived asset or asset group to be tested for recoverability whenever events or changes in circumstance [/FONT][FONT=&quot]indicate that its carrying amount may not be recoverable. Based on the guidance under SFAS 144, we evaluate our satellite fleet for recoverability as an asset group. While certain of the anomalies discussed above, and previously disclosed, may be considered to represent a significant adverse change in the physical condition of an individual satellite, based on the redundancy designed within each satellite and considering the asset grouping, these anomalies (none of which caused a loss of service to subscribers for an extended period) are not considered to be significant events that would require evaluation for impairment recognition pursuant to the guidance under SFAS 144. Unless and until a specific satellite is abandoned or otherwise determined to have no service potential, the net carrying amount related to the satellite would not be written off.

Source: http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix...udGVudHMueG1sP2lwYWdlPTQzMjI2MzcmcmVwbz10ZW5r
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Kinda makes you wonder how an E* guy in today's earnings call could say their satellite fleet was in pretty good shape.
 
I skimmed through the information (good stuff, BTW!) and from what I read, there's little there that would be unexpected. All equipment is designed for a specific service life and based on current data it seems that these sats. are on-course to reach that. I don't think we can interpret that as "trouble-free" operation. Obviously the units are designed to be switched into a number of configurations to maximize their usefulness as equipment fails for whatever reason. It could be a lot worse...!
 
Let's total it up:

E-I: 2 of 104 solar array strings not working *** Looks good ***
E-III: 24 of 44 transponders are not working *** Yikes! ***
E-V: 7 solar array strings not working, 2 years of fuel left *** send in the subs ***
E-VI: 17 of 108 solar array strings not working, reducing transponders by 19%. *** Troublesome ***
E-VII: Lost 1 receiver, else working at 100%. *** solid, as long as the backup receiver holds up ***
E-X: Brandnew, working fine *** all good news ***
E-XII: 4 of 24 solar array strings not working, some transponder loss. *** not good for age ***

E-VI is hurting for a 6 year old satellite, and E-XII has got to be very disappointing for a 3 yr old bird. If those array strings continue to fail, along with E-III dying, Dish could be hurting at 61.5 way before they expected problems.
 
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In order to add capacity they would need to launch even more satellites if they have more loss of use in some of the satellites. They would have to launch one to make up for what they lost then another one to add capacity unless the new satellite has a bit more capacity/potential than the previous one did. At least the newer ones have backups on board.
 
Or make the eventual MPEG4 swap-out ASAP. This is another, publically unstated, reason why Direct and Dish will make this change and are itching to do it, regardless of the controversy regarding supposed MPEG4 benefits. MPEG4 encoders will improve. It looks like Dish is really lining up for a Dish 500 110, 119 system for the future that will handle the vast majority (or even all of its needs). Of course this will all happen over the coming years. We shall see.
 
:) when i called sky angel to check on prices to day. she said they have grown so much they are working on getting there very own sat. i asked is the equipment going to change she said no infact they wont have to re-point there dish eather. hummm that means 61.5 is going to become there sat? i know they are using that sat from dish that bought it. and they are using dish receivers. i like the dish 1000+ single dish for every thing idea!
 
I wonder if TP's 20 and 22 on 61.5 are two of the transponders having issues??

That would make total sense as to why I receive such low levels off of them (70 and 75) versus 90+ on the rest.
 
It would be interesting to see the corresponding information from D*.

It would help put this in perspective as some of it looks a little scary.
 
Kind of off-topic, but does anyone have any photos of these satellites, before they were launched? I'd kind of like to see what they look like. :)
 
So let's discuss what could happen at 61.5.

E-III is an aging, dying bird. It has lost over half of its working transponders. E* seemingly made a great move in buying RB-1/E-XII to give them a long-term fix at 61.5. However it is having more problems than it should be at this stage.

Given the events for both of these satellites over the past couple of years, the trend is that E* could lose two transponders from each over the next year, for a total loss of 4 more transponders from 61.5. And this would be a relatively good year, because E-III could easily lose 4 on its own.

Things are already tight at 61.5. E* is cutting bandwidth to HD channels there to squeeze in more channels.

What is the speculation for what E* might do if they lose another 4 transponders at 61.5?

Or 8 more transponders over the next two years?
 
psumattDE said:
I wonder if TP's 20 and 22 on 61.5 are two of the transponders having issues??

That would make total sense as to why I receive such low levels off of them (70 and 75) versus 90+ on the rest.

tp20 is warming up :) - only last month Dish upload 2 more HD streams on this
 
As previously disclosed, momentum wheel failures in prior years, together with relocation of the satellite between orbital locations, resulted in increased fuel consumption.

As for E5, as stated in the quote above and elsewhere on this site, is a dying bird. It is barely and marginally providing HD channels in a manner that most would hardly consider acceptable or viable. How E* can even say this:

These issues have not impacted commercial operation of the satellite, but have reduced the remaining spacecraft life to approximately two years as of June 30, 2006.

That these issues have not impacted commercial operation of the satellite is an absurd statement. Every 20 minute loss-of-signal with a duration varying between 30 seconds and 7 minutes may be something that E* considers as viable commercial operation, but I certainly do not. If that isn't spin-doctoring, I don't know what is...
 
hobojoe said:
When i called sky angel to check on prices to day. she said they have grown so much they are working on getting there very own sat. i asked is the equipment going to change she said no infact they wont have to re-point there dish eather. hummm that means 61.5 is going to become there sat? i know they are using that sat from dish that bought it.

Sky Angel (Dominion) has been telling us ever since 1997 that they are getting thier own satellite. So far, it is all talk and no action. AFAIK, they haven't contracted with anyone to build them one and the process of design and build takes at least a couple of years. When Echostar III had its failure on April 14th they lost 10 channels (they went from 36 to 26). They were able to work with Echostar and get 7 channels back but they recently sent out a letter to subscribers saying that "because the other 3 channels were not reinstated this technical failure has envolved into contractual issues with Echostar". If anything else fails on Echostar III, Sky Angel may be SOL.

Here is how the "arrangement" works between Echostar and Sky Angel: Sky Angel (Dominion Video Satellite) holds 8 licences at the 61.5 slot (transponders 25 - 32). They lease eight transponders on EchoStar III. Concurrent with the Dominion lease, EchoStar is subleasing six of the transponders back from Dominion. According to what I have read, the lease is good for the life of Echostar III (and the lease specifies that the Sky Angel service will only be from Echostar III).

Sky Angel and Echostar have been "fighting" almost since the day the service launched about almost everything. Sky Angel has a program called "Inside Sky Angel" (something like the Charlie Chats with a religous overtone). Years ago they used to spend almost entire programs ripping Echostar. Nowdays, they have new hosts and spend most of the time talking about programming but once in a while they still takes licks at Charlie and company.
 
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So SkyAngel is not going to go MPEG-4? If Dish Network goes to MPEG-4 for everything then at least they will still be able to use that hardware since it will be MPEG-4 compatable. I can see it now, cheap SkyAngel hardware from remanufactured receivers turned in during the MPEG-4 swapout. SkyAngel would have a HUGE supply of receivers to use at that point as long as they stay with MPEG-2. I wonder if a service would ever get started (or at least FTA) for Directv once they get their swapout done to MPEG-4. Then there would be a lot of use for those receivers. My guess is no.
 

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