What AMC - 14's loss means to Dish

[dslate69]

SWAG:

12 million non MPEG-4 receivers times $100 (cost to Dish after cost sharing w/customers?) equals $1,200,000,000

That's 1.2 BILLION dollars, and is probably at the low end of actual costs.

Ain't gonna happen. Not in the near future.

Has there been any other plans\ideas thrown around?
I mean if DISH just swapped out the mpeg2 receivers of the subs of HD programming and all NEW HD subs could only get mpeg4 boxes, that is a start. I don't know what this means to bandwidth and if they could accomplish this without dropping some mpeg2 programming. Like everything else if you subscribe to a certain package you may need a certain box.
If all goes well we can chase away all the mpeg2 SD only riff-raff that keep bringing down our property values.

 

[vampz26]

AMC14 was not replacing Rainbow1. Rainbow1 is not old. AMC14 couldn't have replaced R1 if it wanted to since AMC14 had no spotbeam capabilities.

Got it...thanks for the correction.

Was AMC14 intended to replace an existing sat (or sats) or am I completely off? Because if it was an entirely new venture...I'd have to agree that we'd be pretty much 'd.

 

[JohnL]

Dish can always use the insurance payout on this sat, to upgrade many/all of their subs to Mpeg-4 receivers. That should allow them to increase their channel carrying capacity quite a bit. Win-win!

Primestar31,

What insurance payout. AMC14 is not Dish's satellite, it was to be leased from SES Americom.

SES Americom is the only company that will receive a payment from the insurance. The only way Dish is going to save money is from not having to pay lease payments to SES Americom.

John

 

[JohnL]

Well, its my understanding (strictly speaking from what I've read here) is that AMC-14 was slated to be a replacement for older sats at 61.5, like Rainbow-1. If it is a replacement, and there is still life left in the older birds, well then the impact is not as great as if it was an entirely new venture here. But regardless, the truth does remain to be seen...

Vampz,

AMC14 was to replace Echostar 3 which has major issues. It is not able to generate enough power, as well as many transponder failures. This means Dish can not use all 32 transponder licenses they hold at 61.5. Rainbow1 was launched by VOOM and is a younger and much more healthy spacecraft. Between the two satellites Dish can only use 28 transponder at 61.5 instead of all 32.

John

 

[Voyager6]

Got it...thanks for the correction.

Was AMC14 intended to replace an existing sat (or sats) or am I completely off? Because if it was an entirely new venture...I'd have to agree that we'd be pretty much 'd.

AMC-14 was leased by E* to replace E3 at 61.5. E3 is operating at a reduced capacity due to the failure of several TP's and power issues. E* would gain 4 CONUS TP's at 61.5 with AMC-14. Now, E* will have to make do without those 4 TP's, at least for the short term. I think E* will try and lease another sat, if any are available, to move to 61.5 until a replacement for AMC-14 or E3 is built.

 

[gadgtfreek]

Dish could really ease a lot of grief by dumping a good deal of the voom channels and adding stuff more care about(i know this is not going to happen).

I think their mpeg4 only plan(if they can still do it) is a great idea and Ill be getting on it ASAP.

 

[vampz26]

Vampz,

AMC14 was to replace Echostar 3 which has major issues. It is not able to generate enough power, as well as many transponder failures. This means Dish can not use all 32 transponder licenses they hold at 61.5. Rainbow1 was launched by VOOM and is a younger and much more healthy spacecraft. Between the two satellites Dish can only use 28 transponder at 61.5 instead of all 32.

John

Ah...I get it now...thank you VERY much for the clarification...

 

[Airblair]

AMC-14 was leased by E* to replace E3 at 61.5. E3 is operating at a reduced capacity due to the failure of several TP's and power issues. E* would gain 4 CONUS TP's at 61.5 with AMC-14. Now, E* will have to make do without those 4 TP's, at least for the short term. I think E* will try and lease another sat, if any are available, to move to 61.5 until a replacement for AMC-14 or E3 is built.

So it sounds to me like this impacts Eastern Arc more than anything else.

So what do we know about EA? As far as I know, it goes live at the end of May, when new subs (even SD-only) get MPEG4 equipment. Existing subs have the option of using it, but they'd need all ViP receivers and a superduperdish pointing to 61.5-72-77.

If I'm wrong, correct me.

But if this is right, what can we speculate about it? Could E* get bandwidth back by starting the swapout for MPEG4 equipment right away, for all subs with LILs on 61.5? Seems kind of expensive, not just for the equipment but also for all the dish repoints.

OTOH, navychop's SWAG actually seems high to me, based on what I've heard around here. Doesn't E* have a deal with Bell ExpressVu up in Canada to sell them refurb'd receivers? And Eastern Arc would only impact subs in half the country, many of whom already have a dish pointed to 61.5.

I'm probably wrong about something in here, but consider this at least a starting point for the speculation . . .

 

[gadgtfreek]

According to Scott, EA is still a go. If they cant do EA, they might as well quit now.

 

[mdonnelly]

So it sounds to me like this impacts Eastern Arc more than anything else.
...

Actually, it affects Dish HD subs everywhere. They need bandwidth at 61.5 to add national HD. They already have the bandwidth at 129, but Dish won't put up any national HD to just the Western subs, and not the East Coast subs.

 

[Airblair]

Well, I still can't see how this really hurts anything but EA, since that's the project they're trying to get off the ground. (Bad choice of words . . . ehh, I'll let it stand.)

Nobody's explained to me exactly how EA helps those of us who won't be moving to it.

I'm on the West Coast and I'm not holding my breath waiting for Western Arc, since that appears to be way down the road when they replace the POS at 129.

And with regard to replacing receivers: Dish may have to replace all HD DVRs up to the ViP line, because they lost their appeal in the Tivo lawsuit: http://www.satelliteguys.us/dish-network-forum/131586-dish-appeal-against-tivo-denied.html

Again, this is barely informed speculation on my part. But that's the whole point of this thread.

 

[teamlazyboy]

i think mdonnelly just aswered your question. If Dish doesn't have enough capacity on the east coast to mirror the same channels that the west coast gets then they're not going to divide the country in terms of National HD. basically everyone gets it or no one gets it. so getting the EA up is just as important to the west coast as it is to the east.

 

[primestar31]

Primestar31,

What insurance payout. AMC14 is not Dish's satellite, it was to be leased from SES Americom.

SES Americom is the only company that will receive a payment from the insurance. The only way Dish is going to save money is from not having to pay lease payments to SES Americom.

John

It's been said in other postings, that Dish paid at least $40 million upfront advance payment for this satellite. So, seems fair they should get back that much from the payout. A million here, and a million there, and pretty soon you are talking about REAL money!

 

[flyingsquirrel]

First, Dish put up $40 million and entered into a contract worth hundreds of Millions more for this Satellite. There HAD to be a reason. So to say the loss of this asset won't hurt is to whistle past the Graveyard.

Second, This was Clearly the linchpin of EA, now it's gone. That is going to either hurt by delaying EA or by limiting what Dish can accomplish with EA.

Third, there will be a ripple effect of this. I would expect the replacement for 129 will be delayed at least 6 months, and know one knows the fate of E-11.

So Dish's HD roll-out plans are toast for some time to come. Instead of being even with D* in HDTV capacity by the end of 2008, it now looks like they will be behind until at least 2010 and perhaps 2011.

And don't forget, they have FCC committments to put Mucho Locals in HD by 2012. Where's the bandwidth for that going to come from?

From my point of view there is only one strategy that makes sense for Dish Network and Directv: Shared distribution of Local channels.

It could be accomplished by Both Dish and Directv contracting with Echostar for Acquisition and distribution of local signals. Corporately, it could be accomplished by Charlie trading Stock in Echostar to D* (or John Malone) in return for transponder and uplink space. Then Echostar and Dish come up with a compatible signal-security system that both would use for local channels.

The result: The two companies would both reclaim more than half the duplicated bandwidth that is wasted now, as well as speeding up the timetable under which ALL CHANNELS and ALL SUBCARRIERS in ALL MARKETS would be transmitted to the ENTIRE US. PRobably could be accomplished in months, not years.

You don't need to rely on chancy launches to achieve this. It's just horse-trading and technical development.

 

[tempVAdish]

Oh yeah, thats why I said end of year. I already have them OTA so no biggie, granted Id like to be able to record more than one at a time in the fall.

Sorry, my bad, thought I read that you'd give 'em til the end of the month... maybe I need glasses

 

[navychop]

Yep, the $40 mil Dish paid up front was insured, so they'll get all or most of that back.

And I agree, sales to ExpressVu and others, and Eastern Arc, will reduce the bill to Dish substantially.

 

[richiephx]

Oh yeah, I just subbed because I love the idea of the HD only pack. Ill give them to the end of the year to add norfolk locals and improve PQ on HD. If they continue to add HD to keep up while damaging PQ, I guess Ill head back to D* and pay $30 more a month

Better yet, dump HD all together and get a blue ray.

 

[richiephx]

Actually, it affects Dish HD subs everywhere. They need bandwidth at 61.5 to add national HD. They already have the bandwidth at 129, but Dish won't put up any national HD to just the Western subs, and not the East Coast subs.

Oh, but they will create an all mpeg4 service on the EA that isn't available to everyone on the west coast?