at current speed should be 113 hours 41 min from when start to move from 138 to get to 129
at 22092 orbit + 1/2 earth diameter, times 2, that give diameter of orbit at 52,112.04
circumfurence of orbit is 163714.80202757745 so one degree is 454.763339 miles
times 9 degrees = 4092.87005 total distance to travel,
speed 0.01 mile per second times 60 sec = 0.6 mile/minute x 60 min = 36 mph,
4092.87005 / 36mph = 113.69 hours to move.
so should be 4 days 17 hours 41 minutes from first start to move. anyone want to set a timer
looks like wednesday night be big news
TLD says 1/24/09 at 2:25 UTC, that's 7:25PM 1/23/09 in Colorado, so add 4 days thats 1/27/09 plus 17 hours 41 min would be 1:06pm on 1/28/09 colorado time, that's plenty of time for big announcement wednessday nigth
I admire your math, but would like to point out something.
n2yo has the same TLE and estimates Ciel 2 has moved 4 degrees approximately from the time it started until now. That indicates the movement started earlier than you believe, or that it's moving slightly faster.
My feeling is that it's moving faster, because n2yo shows it moving at 0.02km/s or 0.01m/s. That's great for eyeballing purposes, but as we all know, 0.02km/s is not actually equal to 0.01m/s--its about 24% faster in fact.
Another way of saying it is to translate it into miles: since one kilometer is .6214 of a mile, 2 kilometers is equal to 1.2428 miles.
That being the case (by my math) the actual speed is not 36 miles per hour but 36X1.2428 or 44.74 miles per hour.
5 additional degrees to go times 454.76 = 2273.8. Divide that by 44.74 and the resultant number of hours remaining on the journey should be 50.82 hours. Adding a round 51 hours to the current time would mean the sat. should reach its destination about 3:00 a.m. Tuesday morning, Colorado time.
This is a bit speculative, of course, since we don't really know exactly when Ciel-2 started its journey, or exactly how fast it's moving. The implication of my math is that it started several hours earlier than the TLE was posted.
Any comment would be welcomed!
Fitzie