HD DVD will Win!

Yeah as far as PS3 and the X-Box 360 good read.

http://www.tvpredictions.com/mdavis120906.htm
PS3 HD Is A-OK

By Mitchell Davis
HD Observer

Washington, D.C. (December 9, 2006) -- There seems to be a lot of PR wars going on around the PlayStation 3.

A "study" recently came out that said gamers had more of an anti-PS3 sentiment and that more liked HD DVD.

But I am happy to be one of the hundreds of thousands to actually own a PS3. And after getting it, I can clearly state it is excellent.

No, I won't trash talk Xbox 360, but the HD gameplay on PS3 is amazing. The story doesn't end there, as Blu-Ray movies are beautiful to watch as well. Not only has Sony been quick to release firmware updates to refine the machine. but those improvements make it a better machine each and every time.

Xbox 360 is offering HD Pay Per View in 720p but it doesn't even have an HDMI or HDCP compliant output. So the PS3 is pretty future proof; it has everything in it that you will need for a long time to come and features that others aspire to.

As more PS3 supplies hit shelves, Sony would do itself a service to lower the price, like they did in Japan. (The PS3 is now $499 and $599.) Yes, they would lose more money in the short run. But it would get rid of the stigma attached to this amazing HD home entertainment center and drive it as the premium machine to get.
 
Thank God the internet wasn't around for VHS vs. Beta. I can imagine the battles we would have gotten into.....
 
And while we are on it, it is not possible to do a two hour movie in HD in 7mb right now. There is no compression technique out there that can do this -- not right now. So how can M$ download a movie in HD in 7mb? The same way DirectTv does it -- in 1200 x 1080i. That is not true HD -- it might be acceptable to DirectTv owners but not anyone who is serious about true HD. Come on, I can't be the only one here who can do the math, can I?

Actually, with variable bitrate it is possible to fit more movie onto a disc without compromising quality. Static scenes without a lot of motion take up a lot of data unnecessarily. If done correctly, like some 1 disc VHS quality MPEG-1 VCD's and 1-disc DivX files I've seen, the proper bitrate can be achieved on a scene by scene basis without any discernable compromise in quality. DirectTV has trimmed on the res for purposes of squeezing in more channels. They cannot do VBR because their content is streamed real-time. The M$ comparison is something I know little about because I'm not sure if the specs are available regarding their marketplace videos. In fact, this has inspired me to look into it. If there's one thing I'm noticing lately though, it's that compression routines and encoding methods are getting very advanced, and I wouldn't be surprised if that made the storage/compression/quality argument moot.
 
Who says PS3 owners are not buying Blu-Ray (BR) movies? Everyone that I know that has a ps3 has at least a dozen BR movies. They started because the BR player came with the unit. I finally got my PS3 last week and will have between 40 and 50 BR movies by year end (Thank you buy.com w/ google checkout and Amazon). I will be buying a few more HD-DVDs yet this year but obviously not as many with the majority of the studios supporting BR.

A dual format player in late 2007 or early 2008 would be perfect. I could ditch this sh!tty HD-A1 and move the ps3 out of the theater.:)
 
Optical HD Battle May Be Over: HD-DVD Wins
By Rob Enderle
December 6th, 2006


Nearly a year and a half ago I wrote a column saying that Blu-Ray wins or nothing does. This showcases the reality of doing predictions because while the analysis held up, events did not pan out as anticipated and by any current measure HD-DVD will end this year with a decisive win.

The basis for the prediction, which did accurately point out that Sony’s win here might actually cost them more than a loss, was the PS3 and the forecast volumes for that product. Back in August of 2005 we did know that HD-DVD, which used DVD production technology, would be easier to bring to market but it simply did not seem reasonable that Sony would put their PlayStation franchise at risk for anything but a technology they were absolutely certain they could bring to market on time.

That turned out to be incorrect. The problems with Blu-Ray have created extreme cost and execution problems for Sony and now their premier division (instead of being the profit center for Sony) is predicting they will take a $1.5B loss next year largely resulting from this decision. To put this in perspective, just think what would happen if Apple’s iPod group, instead of generating massive profit, suddenly dropped into massive loss. Now you can see why the Sony PlayStation division just changed out their top executives.

Why HD-DVD is Wining

When you talk to either the HD-DVD or the Blu-Ray camp you get the sense that neither actually watches movies much. Both cite features as the reason why folks will pick one or the other. Yes there is a lame shooting game in League of Extraordinary Gentlemen (Blu-Ray) and there are a ton of things you can do interactively in HD-DVD (including changing car colors in one scene in The Fast and Furious III: Tokyo Drift). But the movie market moves on quality of movie, price of player, and price and availability of media.

At launch HD-DVD players were about half the price of Blu-Ray players and the movie price for HD-DVD is generally running about $5 less. In addition, many of the new HD-DVD movies also have regular DVD side which means that buyers, most of which will have both HD-DVD and DVD decks, will get better value with HD-DVD than with Blu-Ray – that’s the theory anyways.

All that being said, the killing blow may have been done by Microsoft who decided to bring to market a $200 HD-DVD option for their Xbox 360 which has been in market a year longer than Sony and is projected to have a near 20x installed base advantage by year end (10M Xbox 360 to 600K PS3). Note that both projections are aggressive but Sony was supposed to originally ship 2M PS3s into the market during the 4th quarter and actual numbers (given they had under 200K at launch) may be closer to 400K. And with a recall possible there is a chance they might not even make that. Add to this that the Xbox 360 HD-DVD drive is for movies only, so each one counts for movie viewing while PS3s may not be used to watch movies and you have a situation where the active movie player advantage by year-end should be between 4x and 6x better for HD-DVD over Blu-Ray.

Finally, HP who had been a big Blu-Ray supporter and dominates the Media Center PC market, introduced a $100 HD-DVD upgrade for their PCs (Sony’s Blu-Ray VIAO solution was just dropped to $749). The impact of this last move is still too early to measure but there is no comparably priced (not even close) solution using Blu-Ray.

If you go to Amazon and look you can see HD-DVDs are solidly ahead and this is before the impact of either the Microsoft or the HP moves, many of which won’t be opened until Christmas or haven’t yet been shipped (HP).

Now Sony will stick with a technology for years after the market has decided on another path and they do have some very strong supporters which include Dell, Apple, and Disney. Dell traditionally has been the PC bellwether company, Apple has the most loyal customer base, and Disney is the only Studio that people ask for by name. So these folks, particularly Sony, could drag this on for years. But if that is the case not only will many in the industry not make money, Sony will probably lose the most because they are still the ones doing the heavy lifting (In addition, after the battery problems, neither Dell nor Apple is as close to Sony as they had been).

Right now it appears impossible for Blu-Ray to gain a substantial lead on HD-DVD, even after massive investment, they likely could only close the gap. If the HD market depends on the emergence of one as a standard and Blu-Ray no longer has a chance to be that standard, how long will it be before the Blu-Ray supporters follow HP and switch sides?

Do You Want One Standard?

Now you can evidently help drive this if you are so inclined. There is a petition that has been set up for you to voice your support if you believe that there should be only one and HD-DVD is that one. You can find the petition here . Evidently they had collected 2,300 signatures at the time of this writing.

The petition was put together by HD NOW where the folks have collected a rather interesting list of supporting material which goes far farther than I have on supporting the conclusion that we’ve prematurely crossed over to the point where HD-DVD has won the High Definition DVD competition.

Does Blu-Ray Die?

Blu-Ray has substantial storage capacity advantages for data and could survive as a high capacity personal computer storage medium. While expensive, one non-Sony vendor’s upcoming Blu-Ray laptop solution costs around $800 on top of a $3000 notebook but it gives that product an unmatched removable media capability. But this is a vastly better storage solution for a high-end PC it isn’t a high volume high definition movie watching solution.

So BluRay could indeed survive but probably not for movies only for PS3 games and high-end optical backup. The real question is does the PS3 survive or whether there will ever be a PS4. Some are saying that the PS3 is in deep trouble and some are saying the PS4 will never arrive with massive game defections from PS3 to Xbox.

Wrapping Up

The market wants one solution for High Definition video and we are already starting to see high definition downloads through services like Xbox live. Apple’s iTV is expected to go even further when it launches early next year. It may actually be too late for either of these platforms to move; if folks move aggressively to downloads for high definition content and if High Definition pay per view cable offerings continue to improve, even if I’m correct and HD-DVD has won, it may have actually prevailed too late in the process to survive for long.

Be that as it may, with a 4x to 6x advantage by year end, you’d have to conclude that HD-DVD has reached a point where it can’t lose and Blu-Ray is only now in a position to ensure both platforms lose. That last option still appears most likely if the market doesn’t move aggressively to one HD platform.

This guy pretty out of touch on the demise of HD players. There is no way I will ever want an HD download! One that dissappears after a day or two? And is of inferior bitrate? NO FKN WAY!
 
Be realistic. The format, which encryption scheme will be cracked first, is going to win.
It is that simple.
Everyone will jump a boat, buying players and disks just because they will be able to make backup copies/ share it.
A lot of movies will fill the internet and people will buy new players to view it.
Movie studios executives are stupid. In order to win, all they need is just to leak an algorithm.
 
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The format, which encryption scheme will be cracked first, is going to win.
I disagree. Whatever format is cracked first will lose. No way Fox or Disney will back a cracked format when the other format has not been cracked. That's why they are with BR right now. Supposed to have higher encryption on BR than HD DVD.

-John
 
And despite the RIAA and MPAA screaming the sky is falling, most people won't go to any trouble to run software to crack encryption. We'd rather just go buy the real thing, with known good quality and package inserts. The pirates will go to the trouble and sell fakes passed as real for "great" prices. Still, most will buy only from reputable stores. What if that guy on the corner sold you junk? I doubt he sold it to you for $5.
 
Just a little update since my last repsonse...

If there is no movement of studios over to the HD-DVD market then how in the world is HD-DVD going to win? And win what? Folks in Japan are not going to buy one. Folks in Europe are not going to buy into a product that produces HD with less bitrates.

Well, it doesn't really matter if Japan or Europe adapts to a different format. They can release their films in a different format over here. Case in point: VideoCD was huge in Asian countries, but didn't have a following in the US. People continued to use VHS over here, but the quality was comparable. DVD was also slow to adapt, and hence Super VideoCD had popularity for a while. There were plenty of releases in VCD, SVCD, and DVD running simultaneously. It is entirely possible that BD will be popular in Japan and Europe, VMD in China and other Asian countries, and HD-DVD in the States.

A superior algorithm makes the bitrate argument moot.

And while we are on it, it is not possible to do a two hour movie in HD in 7mb right now. There is no compression technique out there that can do this -- not right now. So how can M$ download a movie in HD in 7mb? The same way DirectTv does it -- in 1200 x 1080i. That is not true HD -- it might be acceptable to DirectTv owners but not anyone who is serious about true HD. Come on, I can't be the only one here who can do the math, can I?
I'm not sure how I didn't remember this, but XBLM movies are in 720p, so the distinction in bitrate requirements between 1080 lines and 720 lines should be fairly great.

BTW I'm not sure if you were implying that the HD-DVD discs were not capable of holding big movies at great quality, but King Kong sports breathtaking quality, and as a very long film, it fits on the HD-DVD disc without suffering.
 
Never said HD-DVD could not hold big movies nor have great picture quality. It has already done both. But you can not do King Kong in 4 to 6 mbs and call that HD. Even at 720p the numbers will not support it. Heck, the audio if done in TrueDolbyHD is going to be at least 2 to 3 mbs. Where is the picture going to be. Unless we see a very quick move to Internet2 and downloads approaching 15mbs we are not going to see 2 hour downloads in this country anytime soon. Those with download speeds approaching these numbers right now I can honestly say I'm jealous!
 
Oh and about busting the encryption -- as soon as that happens all players and monitors better be supporting HDCP because that is when the studios will enforce their will and demand that HDCP be implemented. Any players without HDMI and HDCP will be doorstops at that time. And so will all the HDTVs without DVi or HDMI and HDCP support. Hoping that BluRay gets cracked first will only speed up the demise of outdated equipment and not neccessarily doom BluRay because all BluRay players support HDMI and HDCP. The same cannot be said about the HD-DVD camp and their players.
 
http://www.eproductwars.com/dvd/

am I reading the charts right in seeing that blu ray is on a slight increase as of late and hd dvd is on a slight decline?? I have been trying to look up figures that point to HD DVD running away with it as you guys say and sales figures and such, and all I can find is this that states Blu ray is gaining momentum where as HD DVD is losing it (according to what I see) please let me know if I am right/wrong or if you have other FACTS.
 
http://www.eproductwars.com/dvd/

am I reading the charts right in seeing that blu ray is on a slight increase as of late and hd dvd is on a slight decline?? I have been trying to look up figures that point to HD DVD running away with it as you guys say and sales figures and such, and all I can find is this that states Blu ray is gaining momentum where as HD DVD is losing it (according to what I see) please let me know if I am right/wrong or if you have other FACTS.
According to the chart both are on a downward trend with HD DVD leading.
 
According to the chart both are on a downward trend with HD DVD leading.

if you click show all, it gives you a bigger picture, 06/01/2006-12/17/2006, with HD DVD having a slight decrease, and blu ray having a larger increase as of late, again I realize this is all recent and things could change, but this is the only sales data I could find does anyone have anything different?

also this is for the salesrank of top 10 products.
 
if you click show all, it gives you a bigger picture, 06/01/2006-12/17/2006, with HD DVD having a slight decrease, and blu ray having a larger increase as of late, again I realize this is all recent and things could change, but this is the only sales data I could find does anyone have anything different?
There has to be some better data. I find it hard to believe that Blue Ray sales are about flat since PS3 launch. Just doesn't seem right. I would think, with instantly the numbers, Blue Ray movies should outsell HD DVD since PS3 launch.
 

1st TrueHD Movie!

Upcomming Blu-ray Releases

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