There is a few problems with that. Some of the emails had actually come up in other litigation, so they were not presented by Voom. During the discovery process, emails were missing in those Dish gave to Voom. By order of the court, a forensic auditor recently had access to Dish hard drives and IT system, and the Judge ordered Crying Carolyn Crawford to hand over her laptop after discovering she had deleted documents.
DISH -VS- VOOM - A Settlement has been reached!
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There is a few problems with that. Some of the emails had actually come up in other litigation, so they were not presented by Voom. During the discovery process, emails were missing in those Dish gave to Voom. By order of the court, a forensic auditor recently had access to Dish hard drives and IT system, and the Judge ordered Crying Carolyn Crawford to hand over her laptop after discovering she had deleted documents.
PTVC said:You are the one that made the comment about knowing how civil law woks, I didn't:
I don't know what my comment to costanzas_wallet has to do with you so I won't bother responding.
Who are these analysts you keep referring to? A few days ago I quoted Alan Gould, of Evercore Partners, who assigned an 85% chance that a legal settlement worth $1B could be had, a 14% chance of a settlement of $3.5B + damages and interest, with the AMC channels remaining off Dish and a 1% chance that AMC could lose the lawsuit and see its channels stay off Dish. Anyone that watches CNBC, reads Bloomberg, AOL News, or NBCNews.com, to name a few, has seen or heard Alan Gould at one time or another.
I understand more than you are willing to admit.
Interestingly had you bothered to analyze it more, both analysts are pretty much saying the same. One is likely saying a source indicated a settlement discussion is on-going to work out a deal between $200M and $1B. Another is saying it is very likely a settlement of $1B could be had.
I don't know who those analysts are, frankly I don't rely too much on their analyses or sources. I hate to keep bringing up the TiVo case, I know your buddy does not like the mention of it, but those same analysts were quite off last time. I recall most of them gave TiVo an $18 to $25 projected value post settlement, you know where it's standing has been since.
When it comes to analyzing any litigation involving Dish, conventional wisdom tends to not work the best. I am not saying the analysts will be wrong again, they may well be spot on this time. The thing is, unlike Charlie, analysts usually are not poker players, in that what whatever they say, they are covered, they never lose, even if they do lose.
The "analysts" that you have yet to mention must be privy to information that the others aren't. There is a huge disparity in the analysis you have been citing and the reality of what has been happening in the case as a whole.
BTIG Research’s Richard Greenfield said:
Sanford C. Bernstein's Craig Moffett said:
All of this was from an article at paidContent in July, before any of the recent developments.
What does their current stock value have to do with the fact that Dish lost that lawsuit and paid out $500M to TiVo (Verizon has paid $250.4M)? What does stock value analysis have to do with current settlement analysis?
Analysis of lawsuits may not be an exact science, but that does not make any of the high settlement predictions wrong. I don't know too many analysts that thought Apple would lose their case.
The courts just have not been good to Charlie, he has had way too many Bee Stingers in this case, and then there is the ad-hop lawsuit where Dish, although try as they might, was unable to keep its case in the NY courts. Dish also is being sued by the FTC over Do Not Call violations in 2007 where Dish called Millions of of people in several states, and is looking at fines of $11,000 to $16,000 per call. Poker is not Charlie's game either.
I still say a $1B settlement is more likely than anything under $500M.
My speculation is that Dish is simply working to come out ahead. Even a $1 billion settlement is coming out ahead. They owed a billion+ anyways and they have been accumulating loss reserves for it. They just have managed to use the satellite slot and hold on to the money for years. Carriage on Dish is probably worth a billion to AMC over 5+ years. Not from just the carriage fees that Dish directly pays but the advertising audience size counts for a lot of dollars. Five years on Dish agreement and lets say $500 million is probably worth more to AMC than a $1-1.5 billion victory. Because a 5 year agreement will probably be renewed in the long run. Dish still has a lot of households, and every household is a set of potential viewers and advertising $$.
Obviously its in Dish's best interest to get the lowest settlement possible and I agree that a $1B settlement would be a steal considering how the case has gone for them. If Voom managed to get a $1B settlement that included a long-term carriage agreement, even a carriage agreement at the $70M a year they reportedly received per year, I have no doubt AMC would get a stiffy. $500M + a 5-year carriage deal ($350M+), although nothing to shake a stick at, does not seem too lucrative to AMC, IMO. They could have had a carriage deal had Dish not tried to use it to force Voom's hand.
Its only worth what someone one is willing to pay, or in this case, accept.
The $500M Dish settled with TiVo included $300M it reserved for the lawsuit, and $30M a year for the following 7 years to license TiVo's patents. It wasn't any loss if you look at it this way, Dish actually got away with paying a lot less than had they simply, as most analysts suggested, licensed TiVo's patent in the first place.
The difference then was, I had read a great deal of arguments in that case, and concluded that Dish had very little to fear that their DVRs would ever be shut down. That was the key in that case most analysts did not take into account. They went by the assumption that the DVRs would be forced to turn off sooner or later, if Dish refused to settle. Finally TiVo realized they could not have successfully shut down the DVRs, and Dish needed TiVo's patents to make the Hopper project work.
I had not followed this case closely to disput or agree with some of you who had combed through the filings, but what I found disturbing is, while in the TiVo case, both sides on the discussion forums debated based on filings from both parties, here we only hear one side of the story.
Odds are, there is reason Charlie is refusing to fold, I just have no time to dive into the filings to figure it out. If indeed odds are so one-sided like some of you believe, it would have ended for him already.
Alternatively, it is possible Cablevision/AMC refused to talk unless paid the full asking amount. In that case Dish will have no choice but fight all the way, use all of its legal venues to the fullest extent. In that regard, they certainly know how to.
But if we are all betting persons, I am willing to bet the truth is some where in between.
The difference then was, I had read a great deal of arguments in that case, and concluded that Dish had very little to fear that their DVRs would ever be shut down. That was the key in that case most analysts did not take into account. They went by the assumption that the DVRs would be forced to turn off sooner or later, if Dish refused to settle. Finally TiVo realized they could not have successfully shut down the DVRs, and Dish needed TiVo's patents to make the Hopper project work.
I had not followed this case closely to disput or agree with some of you who had combed through the filings, but what I found disturbing is, while in the TiVo case, both sides on the discussion forums debated based on filings from both parties, here we only hear one side of the story.
Odds are, there is reason Charlie is refusing to fold, I just have no time to dive into the filings to figure it out. If indeed odds are so one-sided like some of you believe, it would have ended for him already.
Alternatively, it is possible Cablevision/AMC refused to talk unless paid the full asking amount. In that case Dish will have no choice but fight all the way, use all of its legal venues to the fullest extent. In that regard, they certainly know how to.
But if we are all betting persons, I am willing to bet the truth is some where in between.
something bad had to happen. a guy that works for FEARnet use to email me all the time. he won't answer me anymore and i quit emailing him. he told me to email him anytime.
It's being reported in the AMC thread that all the 'Not on Dish' logos have been scrubbed clean from the AMC Networks website and Facebook site. Likewise, www.keepamcnetworks.com not redirects folks to AMCtv.com. Although not a certainly, it's looking reasonably good that a settlement will be announced next week and that AMC will be returning to Dish. We shall see.
PTVC said:
This is factually incorrect. Anything autohop related stayed with the NY court. The claims the networks made about PTAT (not covered in Dish's autohop filing) were split off and those will be heard in CA.
I think this is like breaking news, good enough for a SatGuy front page mention. Its a sign they are talking, maybe even reached a deal and are going over the fine tune paper work now.
It's being reported in the AMC thread that all the 'Not on Dish' logos have been scrubbed clean from the AMC Networks website and Facebook site. Likewise, www.keepamcnetworks.com not redirects folks to AMCtv.com. Although not a certainly, it's looking reasonably good that a settlement will be announced next week and that AMC will be returning to Dish. We shall see.
Sean Mota said:
$700M cash including Dish getting some wireless licenses cover 45 DMAs. It is fair to say the VOOM's star attorney is crap crap crap crap
, at least as far as Mr.4069 is concerned.
Market Watch ( http://www.marketwatch.com/story/dish-network-and-voom-reach-settlement-2012-10-21 ) is reporting that "DISH will resume broadcast of the AMC channel Sunday, October 21. The AMC channel will be carried on DISH channel 131."
I want my Walking Dead!
I want my Walking Dead!
Cablevision/AMC ends EchoStar litigation
http://advanced-television.com/2012/10/21/cablevisionamc-ends-echostar-litigation/
The litigation between Cablevision/VOOM and EchoStar/Dish has been settled out of court. EchoStar will pay $700 million in cash to Cablevision, and in addition will re-start transmissions of the AMC channels onto the Dish Network DTH system. This means AMC, IFC, Sundance and WEtv channels get reinstated as part of the “multi-year agreement”, effective October 21[SUP]st[/SUP].
Additionally, Dish has agreed to convey its 20 per cent interest in VOOM HD back to Rainbow (part of the Cablevision family of companies).
The agreement sees an end to the increasingly bitter litigation between the two parties, and where Cablevision was arguing for $2.4 billion in compensation, and the court case was looking increasingly challenging for EchoStar.
http://advanced-television.com/2012/10/21/cablevisionamc-ends-echostar-litigation/
The litigation between Cablevision/VOOM and EchoStar/Dish has been settled out of court. EchoStar will pay $700 million in cash to Cablevision, and in addition will re-start transmissions of the AMC channels onto the Dish Network DTH system. This means AMC, IFC, Sundance and WEtv channels get reinstated as part of the “multi-year agreement”, effective October 21[SUP]st[/SUP].
Additionally, Dish has agreed to convey its 20 per cent interest in VOOM HD back to Rainbow (part of the Cablevision family of companies).
The agreement sees an end to the increasingly bitter litigation between the two parties, and where Cablevision was arguing for $2.4 billion in compensation, and the court case was looking increasingly challenging for EchoStar.
