DIRECTV unlikely to keep NFL Sunday Ticket

[Juan]

Why OTA, they could get more with something like Pluto TV, easier to track what people are watching, then could make more money with targeted advertising.

Even so, still going to be a lost of revenue whatever route they take, right now, ESPN 1 and 2 get roughly $9 per sub, have already lost, roughly, 30 million subscribers, that is $270 million a month or $3.2 billion gone, never coming back.

Now, they are losing another 2 million subs a quarter, 8 million a year gone, so by the end of the year, they have lost another $864 million in sub fees that are never coming back-( Math-$9 x 8,000,000 x 12 months).

Now, with less revenue coming in, they are starting to lose rights to certain sports, Big Ten was the start, they have reportedly dropped out of the Sunday Ticket rights because it is too expensive, as more rights come up they are going to find themselves out bided a lot more, because they cannot afford the overpayment for Sports Rights that others are doing.

By the way, I love watching the Big Ten, there is no way that deal should of been $7 billion (1 billion a year) dollars, for basically 3-4 games a week with limited appeal Nationwide, heck, the NFL gets $2 Billion a year each from Fox and CBS, the NFL has a lot more appeal then the Big Ten and that contract was too high.

You need something that reaches everybody..you can't only care about the haves in the great digital divide

 

[Bruce]

You need something that reaches everybody..you can't only care about the haves in the great digital divide

OTA definitely does not each everyone.

Only 18.6 million homes are using antennas, 15% of households in the U.S.

108 million, 85% of the households in the United States, has a broadband internet subscription.

Nielsen Sees Uptick in Over-the-Air Households

18.6 million homes using antennas, or 15% of the U.S.

www.nexttv.com

U.S. fixed broadband internet subscribers 2023 | Statista

In the first quarter of 2023, the total number of broadband subscribers in the U.S.

www.statista.com

 

[AZ.]

OTA definitely does not each everyone.

Only 18.6 million homes are using antennas, 15% of households in the U.S.

108 million, 85% of the households in the United States, has a broadband internet subscription.

Nielsen Sees Uptick in Over-the-Air Households

18.6 million homes using antennas, or 15% of the U.S.

www.nexttv.com

U.S. fixed broadband internet subscribers 2023 | Statista

In the first quarter of 2023, the total number of broadband subscribers in the U.S.

www.statista.com

Those numbers are not real....I subscribe to HBO, NFL,NHL,MLB, each one gives me streaming options that I cant use to to lack of speed....So I have 4 streaming services that dont get used....So those numbers are very padded!

 

[Bruce]

Those numbers are not real....I subscribe to HBO, NFL,NHL,MLB, each one gives me streaming options that I cant use to to lack of speed....So I have 4 streaming services that dont get used....So those numbers are very padded!

Just because you cannot means nothing except that you are in the 15%.

I live in a Rural Area, I found out they just received Broadband here 2 years before I bought this house in 2020, never would of bought it if not available.

 

[Juan]

OTA definitely does not each everyone.

Only 18.6 million homes are using antennas, 15% of households in the U.S.

108 million, 85% of the households in the United States, has a broadband internet subscription.

Nielsen Sees Uptick in Over-the-Air Households

18.6 million homes using antennas, or 15% of the U.S.

www.nexttv.com

U.S. fixed broadband internet subscribers 2023 | Statista

In the first quarter of 2023, the total number of broadband subscribers in the U.S.

www.statista.com

Actually it does reach everyone most choose not to use antennas

 

[Bruce]

Actually it does reach everyone most choose not to use antennas

OTA has the same problem reaching Rural areas as Broadband does, except there are options for Rural Areas to get Broadband, Star Link for one, Digital via OTA seems to basically fall off a cliff at the 60-80 mile range from the Transmitter, even with the best Antenna.

But you know this, just another Rabbit Hole.

 

[Juan]

OTA has the same problem reaching Rural areas as Broadband does, except there are options for Rural Areas to get Broadband, Star Link for one, Digital via OTA seems to basically fall off a cliff at the 60-80 mile range from the Transmitter, even with the best Antenna.

But you know this, just another Rabbit Hole.

OTA has reached rural america since the 1950s..but alas

 

[Bruce]

OTA has reached rural america since the 1950s..but alas

How obtrusive do you wish to be, that was analog, we are now in a digital world, no more of the snowy picture, when it drops, nothing.

Here-

But, in real-world conditions the idea reception areas for antenna TV are within about 35 miles of local broadcast towers. Those living further afield may get TV signals up to about 70 miles away, at which point the curvature of the earth begins to impact OTA reception.

What Cord Cutters Need to Know About Distance Ratings for OTA TV Antennas – Cord Cutters News

www.cordcuttersnews.com

 

[AZ.]

Just because you cannot means nothing except that you are in the 15%.

I live in a Rural Area, I found out they just received Broadband here 2 years before I bought this house in 2020, never would of bought it if not available.

What is says is one home has 4 streaming services, it makes those numbers not even close....You think Im the only one? All it takes is 1 million having 4 services and thats 4 million that really dont....Is that hard to wrap your head around?

 

[NashGuy]

They don't have include sports in the base subscription, they can make that an extra cost option. That's obviously what Apple will do with NFLST if they win those rights as rumored.

For lesser games you can just roll them into a package, but once they start getting top end content - like if a streamer wins some of the college football playoffs when they expand and do new contracts - I wouldn't be shocked to see that become some sort of extra cost add on. Or only available to customers on yearly full price subscriptions, something like that.

They have a lot of options with streaming they didn't have with cable. They did the model they did because there was no way to limit who could watch a channel at a particular time (well maybe there is now but certainly not when they first started showing sports on TV) That model worked for them, until it didn't, they aren't going to try to recreate it in a streaming world.

Look at what Apple is doing with their big MLS contract they just signed. A sprinkling of national regular season games will be included in their general entertainment Apple TV+ service (and, IDK, maybe playoff/championship games too?). But for all the other games (the entire league, not just your local team), you'll need to buy their specific MLS package.

We'll see all the major sports league (except maybe NFL) do something similar: put a few regular season games, plus the big championship/playoffs (e.g. World Series), in a general entertainment service, satisfying casual fans. But for the hard-core fans of the sport, they'll have to pony up to buy access to all those regular-season games through a dedicated service/package (i.e. the replacement for today's RSNs, except divided out by league/sport). And it'll be pretty expensive, because that's a lot of games spread out over far fewer subs than the big services like Disney+ and Netflix will have.

I don't see much space for something like ESPN with a hodge-podge of select regular season games from various sports. Who's that supposed to appeal to? You never want to be caught in the middle and that's where ESPN is. It's not for casual sports fans (who will be served through the big general entertainment/variety apps they already get anyway). But it's also not for the big fans of any particular sport/league either.

 

[NashGuy]

Why OTA, they could get more with something like Pluto TV, easier to track what people are watching, then could make more money with targeted advertising.

I keep saying that the OTA broadcast networks -- ABC, CBS, NBC and Fox -- will all end up being absorbed into those media companies' FAST apps, i.e. CBS will live stream for free in Pluto TV, Fox in Tubi, etc. Now, I do not think they're going to include much, if any, live sports in those live streams -- you'll need their subscription services for that (e.g. CBS sports in Paramount+). But everything else aired on the national networks will be available in their free ad-supported apps.

 

[Juan]

I keep saying that the OTA broadcast networks -- ABC, CBS, NBC and Fox -- will all end up being absorbed into those media companies' FAST apps, i.e. CBS will live stream for free in Pluto TV, Fox in Tubi, etc. Now, I do not think they're going to include much, if any, live sports in those live streams -- you'll need their subscription services for that (e.g. CBS sports in Paramount+). But everything else aired on the national networks will be available in their free ad-supported apps.

What happens to the local affliates?..local news...local commercials etc etc

 

[Bruce]

What is says is one home has 4 streaming services, it makes those numbers not even close....You think Im the only one? All it takes is 1 million having 4 services and thats 4 million that really dont....Is that hard to wrap your head around?

Ok, Corporations do not care about the 15% that cannot get something, they care about the 85% that can, way of the world.

It is your choice to have services you cannot receive, which makes no sense.

You want broadband, pony up the money and order Star Link( it probably will take up to a year, sooner the better), or you can just keep complaining about how you cannot get it the same way the majority do.

By this time next year, NFLST will be on a streaming service no matter what, DirecTV decided they did not want it anymore, so if you want it, you know what to do.

 

[Bruce]

What happens to the local affliates?..local news...local commercials etc etc

Local News is on the Roku now, I downloaded the apps awhile ago and can watch Detroit news, Live if I wish.

I did that after we first moved, not any more, don’t watch Florida News either.

 

[slice1900]

OTA definitely does not each everyone.

Only 18.6 million homes are using antennas, 15% of households in the U.S.

108 million, 85% of the households in the United States, has a broadband internet subscription.

That's by choice. I could receive TV via antenna at my house, but I don't have an antenna because I get cable. No one with cable has any reason to receive OTA. While Dish (and to a lesser extent Directv) allow you to integrate OTA very few people see the point.

Probably less than 10% of the US population would be unable to pick up the big 4 networks where they live if they wanted. Most just don't have a reason to.

Heck I'll bet most 20 somethings don't even know OTA exists and is free, they see "TV" as streaming and wouldn't be interested in watching TV in a way that required them be there at a certain time to watch something or miss it.

ATSC 3.0 has something called SFN (single frequency networks) that allow for repeaters on the same frequency so theoretically they could cover their entire footprint down to the last household if they wanted. They don't need full sized TV towers, they could have a little antenna on cell towers to cover areas their big antennas don't reach like people in valleys or behind hills.

We'll have to see if anyone bothers to implement that, since it will cost money they will need to have enough new viewers watching enough commercials to make up that cost.

 

[slice1900]

By the way, I love watching the Big Ten, there is no way that deal should of been $7 billion (1 billion a year) dollars, for basically 3-4 games a week with limited appeal Nationwide, heck, the NFL gets $2 Billion a year each from Fox and CBS, the NFL has a lot more appeal then the Big Ten and that contract was too high.

In the NFL's new contract they are getting $10 billion a year from Fox, CBS, ESPN and Amazon (NFLST will add another 2-3 billion on top of that)

The Big Ten's contract was not too high, it went up because sports rights have continued to go up - because that's about the only thing people will watch live anymore.

 

[Juan]

Local News is on the Roku now, I downloaded the apps awhile ago and can watch Detroit news, Live if I wish.

I did that after we first moved, not any more, don’t watch Florida News either.

Without ads...nobody to pay for it...camera crews cost money

 

[Bruce]

Without ads...nobody to pay for it...camera crews cost money

There are ads.

The world is changing, evolve or die.

Do you still buy Newspapers, or like the majority, read the news online.

What about those poor people that worked at the papers, do you think about them like the TV folks, or has there been enough time and you moved on?

Once again, TV has been changing since it started, always for the better, this time is no different.

Did not some analog stations go out of business because they could not afford the switch over to digital, so thinking of them, we should never have gone to digital to save their jobs and business, that is pretty much the same thing you are saying about the changeover to streaming,, help the few who do not like the switch over, while the majority want it and support it.

 

[Juan]

There are ads.

The world is changing, evolve or die.

Do you still buy Newspapers, or like the majority, read the news online.

What about those poor people that worked at the papers, do you think about them like the TV folks, or has there been enough time and you moved on?

Once again, TV has been changing since it started, always for the better, this time is no different.

Did not some analog stations go out of business because they could not afford the switch over to digital, so thinking of them, we should never have gone to digital to save their jobs and business, that is pretty much the same thing you are saying about the changeover to streaming,, help the few who do not like the switch over, while the majority want it and support it.

Without a local affliate..no local news...its will be real ugly watching America regress without local affliates to inform the public...national news wont cut it

 

[Bruce]

Found this on Reddit about the Big Ten Deal—

Fox will carry 24-32 football games per season during the agreement, while NBC will carry 14-16 games on its linear network and eight games per year on Peacock. Beginning in 2024, CBS will carry 14-15 Big Ten games per season, including a number to be determined of games on Paramount+.

CBS does not start up until 2024 because of it’s deal with the SEC, which expires after the 2023 season.

I am not a big fan of this, while this deal does indicate a start in our change over to streaming, I was hoping to be rid of paid Live TV, I will still need BTN if I wish to watch every Michigan game, the games on the Networks I can get via antenna and streaming, I will have to keep Peacock ( planned on getting rid of it after my discounted year was up, never use the service).