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JoeSp said:

4) Any HD customers in the new HD coverage area will move to D* in droves.

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i fall into this category.

I find it amazing that folks actually think DirecTV will have their new satellite (Spaceway) launched and operational this spring when in fact I think it is optimistic for it to be launched by early summer 2005 and operational by fall.
The first Spaceway satellite scheduled for launch is in April 2005 on an Ariane 5 but according to the LyngSat site there are three other Ariane 5 launches before it as indicated by this website:

http://www.lyngsat.com/launches/2005.html

In addition, from the SpaceFlightNow website there is another Ariane 5 launch scheduled prior to Spaceway, that being the XTAR-EUR mission as indicated by this website:

http://spaceflightnow.com/tracking/index.html

Admittedly the websites' schedules don't agree but the XTAR-EUR mission does not have a commercial communication satellite on it so it wouldn't show on the LyngSat site. So there are four other Ariane 5 missions scheduled prior to the launch of the first Spaceway. Unless one or probably two of these missions are postponed significantly, I can't see Spaceway being launched in April.

In regards to prediction 4) above, I think there are many folks who currently get HD via satellite have OTA antennas for their locals and like me are unwilling to pay the expected $7-10 a month for HD locals via satellite.

JoeSp said:

I have been watching the juggling between E*, D* and V*. I offer the following predictions.

1) Voom is not going to be bought out but it will enter into an agreement with both E* and D* to offer their HD content.

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I agree that Voom will not be bought due to cash flow issues and regulatory delays. D* is not a good partner as they don't use MPEG2 or MPEG4 technology. Any HD will have to be on their own satellites and D* doesn't have the room without going to a Ka dish setup. E* CAN use MPEG2 and does have capacity for additional HD coming available on 105. But unless V* is near death and makes a real sweet deal I do not expect any agreement until the fall when V* will be (I predict) near death.

JoeSp said:

2) E* will make an offer to swap out HD MPEG 2 receivers for MPEG4 receivers at a ridiculously low cost (possibly no cost for those who currently pay for HD). They did this with the 811 initially for Dish Club members and long time Dish customers. I got mine for $149 and others purchased their's for even less.

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E* will not swap out receivers. What do you expect them to do with the NEW $750 receivers they just introduced? Toss them?

JoeSp said:

3) When D* brings their new satellite online this spring and begins offering HD content in the top 12 markets Charlie will be doing the same thing only he won't be able to follow suit until the fall.

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D*'s new satellites will not be brought online. I predict the first set of HD locals will be offered by V*/E* in 2006.

JoeSp said:

4) Any HD customers in the new HD coverage area will move to D* in droves.

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Only possible if you assume that #3 will happen. I predict that this will be a very frustrating year for HD viewers.

JoeSp said:

5) While Voom will be offering many more channels both SD and HD, untill they move over to MPEG4 they will be plagued with diminishing PQ. They also will charge for the MPEG4 upgrade to their customers. Their deep pockets have been cut. This is how I came up with my number 1 prediction.

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I predict Voom will make no major changes because they will not want to spend ANY capital on improvements while awaiting sale. Voom will stagnate until they finally get to a price E* can afford. Voom will not license their complete programming to others (why would they undercut their own service offering?) until the fall when economics make that unavoidable.

JoeSp said:

6) In July, we will all be looking at increases in cost for both programming and equipment as all satellite providers try to leap frog each other for HD customers.

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Only on HD packages, and only if content is added beyond todays offering.

JoeSp said:

7) In the end I believe that D* is going to come out on top. The reason is simple -- Rupert does not do second best very well -- His pockets are deep and by the showing at CES he is going to invest heavily.

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While D* has best intentions, their attempts to get DirecTV7s online in 2003 (which only became a success in 2004) shows that they are not immune to problems.

JoeSp said:

8) Final prediction is that Bill Gates money is going to get him in the satellite business one way or the other. He is hell-bent on controling the lion's share of broadband in this country one way or the other. Perhaps XBOX2 will be his in?

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If Mr Bill gets into satellite TV it will be through one of two methods:
1) reselling and rebranding either E* or D*'s packages (I'd bet E*, since E*'s Ka access would allow for satellite internet as well.)
2) buying Voom. Someone is going to do it eventually and Gates has the deep pockets to do it. In addition, a non-DBS company can more easily buy a DBS company. The available slots at 166 and 175 make V* worth buying.

In addition to your predictions:
9) All existing Dish500 local markets will remain on Dish500 with "extra locals" moved in from the wings in the fall (E10 activation). Many SuperDish105 local markets will move to Dish500 as well.

10) Pending 9, SD105 will be used for national HD (late 2005) and larger market Central US HD signals (in 2006). Space freed on 61.5 moving locals will be used for Eastern US HDs in 2006 and space on 148 will be used for some Western US HDs in 2006.

11) A new E* satellite for 157 will be announced in 2005 serving Alaska and Hawaii. It won't be up in 2005, but E* will begin some service from that location using whatever satellite becomes available. Eventually (2006) AT180 and below will be available from 148/157, as well as all Alaskan and Hawaiian SD and HD channels. It is beyond 2005, but it is coming.

JL