Analyst Declares Blu-Ray the Winner

[Ilya]

"It's time to put a stake in the ground regarding the future high-definition DVD format: Blu-Ray has won," Semico Research analyst Adrienne Downey wrote. "Walking around CES, it was obvious that much of the enthusiasm and momentum is on the Blu-Ray side."

In an interview, Downey said that in comparing the devices on display at the electronics showcase, and the positive spin surrounding Blu-Ray, that format has a decided edge.

"The support for HD DVD is minimal, in comparison. And Blu-Ray has a technical advantage as well because it offers greater storage density," she said, noting that the Blu-Ray disc can scale up to 200 GB over time. "HD DVD can't match that scalability," said Downey.

Read here: http://www.newsfactor.com/story.xhtml?story_id=40875

 

[T2k]

Well, it's quite deceptive title and quote, Ilya...

Too Early To Tell

Others are not so quick to take sides, given the stage of the format war. "It's way too early to declare a winner," said Yankee Group analyst Michael Goodman. "There most likely won't be any products making an impact on the market for two or three years."

Goodman suggested that both parties could end up being losers. "You have to consider the delivery of video over the Internet, and pay-per-view services that are also available," he said. "It will take a while before the high-definition video hardware is out there, and if Microsoft does well with the Xbox 360, there could be a lot of HD DVD players being sold."

Goodman acknowledged that Blu-Ray is currently in a strong position. "But the battle will continue as long as there are competing formats," he said.

 

[Ilya]

Well, it's quite deceptive title and quote, Ilya...

It's the title of the article - what can I do?
And since the same words by Adrienne Downey are quoted all over the Internet, I thought I would post them here. Not that I necessarily agree with her statements.

 

[T2k]

"The support for HD DVD is minimal, in comparison. And Blu-Ray has a technical advantage as well because it offers greater storage density," she said, noting that the Blu-Ray disc can scale up to 200 GB over time. "HD DVD can't match that scalability," said Downey.
Read here: http://www.newsfactor.com/story.xhtml?story_id=40875

Actually this is what I hate: analysts are making press for their names with relying every crap they've been fed up with.
I don't believe HD-DVD's three-layer 45GB discs, just like I don't believe the still paperware 50 gig BDR disc of Blu-Ray.
But I do believe the proven backward DVD compatibility of HD-DVD, their proven much cheaper costs which is a fraction of BDE's and I believe HD-DVD's better physical parameters results much more durable medium, as regular DVDs have proved it already.


As the other 'analyst' said, it's waaay too early to declare anything.

 

[Ilya]

...But I do believe the proven backward DVD compatibility of HD-DVD...

You might be right, though I am still curios why would Toshiba on the back of their HD-XA1 brochure, put a small disclaimer which say, "Some DVD discs may not be compatible. If you experience compatibility issues, please contact customer service"

Sorry, couldn't resist!

 

[puck71]

You might be right, though I am still curios why would Toshiba on the back of their HD-XA1 brochure, put a small disclaimer which say, "Some DVD discs may not be compatible. If you experience compatibility issues, please contact customer service"
Sorry, couldn't resist!

I have noticed that DVD+R compatibility is conspicuous in its absence from all of Toshiba's specs. I'm hoping to be able to bring in one of my DVD+R's and test it out before possibly buying one of the units. I don't think this will make or break my decision, since I have a couple other players that can play +R but it would be curious if the Toshibas can't play them.

 

[DrWho]

I am siding with HD-DVD. If the market doesn't come out that way, oh well.

Screw the anal-cyst.

 

[vurbano]

Blu ray won? BOLOGNA

 

[BobMurdoch]

Neither has WON so far. Who won the last time two formats fought each other? SACD or DVD Audio?

Neither...... Good ole redbook audio (aka CD) is still the dominant delivery platform (excluding Itunes and other non physical formats).

DVD will not be going anywhere, if they can't agree. HD DVD has one major advantage, price..... HD DVD players are going on sale for $500 soon. The cheapest BluRay players are $1,800. Yes, the PS3 will see that drop a lot, but it will be Christmas 2006 before that ships at the earliest (they weren't even at CES and Japan will get new hardware first).....

 

[Ilya]

The cheapest BluRay players are $1,800.

Just a correction: Pioneer Elite BDP-HD1 ($1800), that you are probably referring to, will actually be one of the most expensive BD players. The Elite line from Pioneer is always priced much higher than average.

The cheapest Blu-Ray players have not been announced yet (should be announced soon!), but at least one of them (PS3) is expected to be priced under $500.

P.S. Totally agree with you that a prolonged war (like SACD or DVD Audio) may result in both sides losing!

 

[DrWho]

I would not take what the PS3 might be as anything worth considering at this point.

The Pioneer $1800 model does 1080p.

The $1000 BluRay(cheapest so far) models will not be doing 1080p, at least in the first wave from what I have read.

 

[BobMurdoch]

According to TWICE (This Week in Consumer Electronics), the only machines mentioned by the periodical re: the CES presence of both formats was the $500 HD DVD by Toshiba and the $1800 BluRay by Pioneer. There may be more, but these were the only two disp[layed at CES. There was no PS3 preset either for display of ype purposes which may mean it will be 4Q2006 before you even see the first PS3s trickling out (and I've heard $700 not $500 as a launch price due to the Blu Ray components and other items).

Blu Ray is ahead, but HD DVD is trying to cut them off at the knees right out of the box. Until they both sit down and hash out a deal, neither will be a DVD-esque winner. This will take years to resolve unless the market totally rejects one or the other (like what happened with Divx when DVD first came out)

 

[ronjohn]

This will take years to resolve unless the market totally rejects one or the other (like what happened with Divx when DVD first came out)

DivThe DVD format) was a stupid idea from Circuit City, other retailers didn't carry it. Lack of studio support shut it down. There was a war between Sony and Toshiba during the beginning of DVDs between MMCD(Sony) and SD(Toshiba). This dispute was settled before consumer versions were available. Since consumer versions are becoming available for HDDVD and BlueRay, a better comparison would be betamax and VHS. In VHS vs. Betamax, betamax got more hype and had better quality and technical specs, but VHS won.

I don't think that right now anyone knows what will happen. If someone did know what will happen, there would be no reason for a format dispute.

 

[JoeSp]

Blue Ray will come out on top of HD-DVD in the home theater and here is why. It is a better system and there is more support for Blue Ray then HD-DVD in the Home Theater Market and from the movie studios. HD-DVD has its support based in the P-C market and that is not a bad thing.

The movie studios would love to have a seperate format for the Home Theater players and the P-Cs. This would make the lives a whole lot simpler. If the Blue Ray format never hits the P-C market then piracy will be a whole lot harder. And transfer of HD material will also be alot harder.

This is not a necessarilly bad thing and I believe both standards can survive. The HD-DVD market will be for the P-C's and the BlueRay market will be for the Home Theater market. There is plenty of room for every one.

As for trying to guess where the XBOX360 and PS3 are going to effect this market it is anyone's guess. Gates missed the market when he did not have enough XBOX 360s for sale during XMAS. One day's sales is not going to break Sony's stranglehold on the console market. I haven't seen a XBOX 360 for sale in any store since the release. I bet when the PS3 hits the market you will not have to wait 3 to 4 months to get one after the release date. Who knows -- we shall see.

 

[BobMurdoch]

Are you kidding? Do you remember the PS2 rollout? People were killing each other to get them just as much if not more than the XBox mania in either of the two previous generations. The first year of release is always met with Tickle Me Elmo-esque price gouging by those who get them and resell them in the aftermarket.

There is no way the PS3 will land here in the US before Holiday 2006. A couple of hundred thousand will be available, but the early adopters and speculators will snap them up. I doubt you will see any pallets on Black Friday filled wiith PS3s at your local Walmart or Best Buy.

The only thing that will cut demand is if they put the initial purchase price too high. If they are $800 it may suppress demand. By then Microsoft should have 3-5 million consoles sold (current projections until the end of 2006). That's assuming that the Blu Ray rollout doesn't hit any further snags or changes that delay the release of the hardware.

 

[toto]

A JVC rep asked me at the JVC demo is I'd seen any announcements about Blue Ray products. I mentioned the 1800 dollar Pioneer computer drive. I asked why, he said (and we were standing in front of it at the time) that JVC was still showing a 3 year old prototype. I asked is they were still using HDDVHS on their TV displays. He said no, they were using a 1080i optical disk. He wasn't sure what kind, but that it wasn't Blu Ray. I won't buy either. It was all a con job. It's not about movies, it's about gamers dollars. I gave that up 30 years ago. And by the time this is resolved it may be another 30 years

 

[T2k]

Blue Ray will come out on top of HD-DVD in the home theater and here is why. It is a better system

No, it's not.
It lacks mandatory managed copy, it still lacks 50 gig BDR discs, has only 0.1mm cover layer versus HDDVD's and DVD's 0.6mmm thus you will buy more replacement discs, still problems around DVD backward compatibility et cetera et cetera.

and there is more support for Blue Ray then HD-DVD in the Home Theater Market

Facts please. I believe it's not true.

and from the movie studios.

Which considered as positive sign since when...?

HD-DVD has its support based in the P-C market and that is not a bad thing.
The movie studios would love to have a seperate format for the Home Theater players and the P-Cs.

NO WAY. This goes against any basic logic.

This would make the lives a whole lot simpler.

Contrary, it'd make life much more difficult, to cope one format for PC - nate bene: PC not P-C - and another for HT... this is insane to call it simpler.

If the Blue Ray format never hits the P-C market then piracy will be a whole lot harder.

Umm, interesting... and how?

And transfer of HD material will also be alot harder.

Ummm not to be a pain in the @ss but exactly what effect can make Blu-Ray's PC availability on HD-DVDs already confirmed content copy management?

This is not a necessarilly bad thing and I believe both standards can survive.

This would be the worst possible outcome and fortunately has zero chance to be the reality.

The HD-DVD market will be for the P-C's and the BlueRay market will be for the Home Theater market. There is plenty of room for every one.

No, there isn't. By the way did you notice that desktop HD-DVD players are already available for preorder at BestBuy and other sites? So much for PC-only (no, still not P-C )....:devil: And how about PC Blu-Ray drives like this: http://anandtech.com/tradeshows/showdoc.aspx?i=2666

As for trying to guess where the XBOX360 and PS3 are going to effect this market it is anyone's guess. Gates missed the market when he did not have enough XBOX 360s for sale during XMAS.

He did not have enough for Christmas and before only....

One day's sales is not going to break Sony's stranglehold on the console market.

... so why would the missed Christmas days are so important? You're contradicting yourself.

I haven't seen a XBOX 360 for sale in any store since the release.

Well, I don't know where do you live but there are plenty everywhere I go (BB, GS etc)...

I bet when the PS3 hits the market you will not have to wait 3 to 4 months to get one after the release date.

...and you'll lose your money. Even though Sony has never released a console at every continent at the same time (up to within few weeks), it was the same pathetic scenario EVERY TIME when Sony released a console too.

 

[T2k]

Blu Ray is ahead,

Seriously: in terms of what? Vaporware announcements? Or in pricing, with its twice as high prices?

 

[DrWho]

Blu-Ray not hitting the PC market?

I don't see why they don't want that market. There are plenty of shops wanting alternate backup and storage mechanisms and Blu-Ray has been touted to do just that cause of it's potential media size.

Blu-Ray writers... if the readers are selling at $1000+, I don't see writers being economical anytime soon. Not when you have external drives.

Where on the other hand HDDVD writers should be a bit more tolerant considering the $499 and $799 price points from the HDDVD Readers that are about to hit the market.

Cost of media? Don't know yet, but in some of the BluRay Pics, they use protective coverings, that might not be too cheap. who knows.....

 

[cybertrip]

All I can say is the consumers will choose what is better. Just like VHS vs Beta.

However, what I still don't like about the new Hi Def DVD's is that the consumer market does not like quick change. If you think about it DVD's are still new, having this much change will make people confused and the HD-DVD or BluRay market may not even succeed because of the consumers.