Analyst: Dish could lose billions

[waltinvt]

I'm probably missing something here but I thought all the newer receivers were exempt from this ruling, so doesn't it become moot as Dish upgrades everyone to MPEG4?

 

[Voyager6]

I'm probably missing something here but I thought all the newer receivers were exempt from this ruling, so doesn't it become moot as Dish upgrades everyone to MPEG4?

This is an unknown element of the case. The 622, 612 and 722 were not out as of the start of the trial and therefore were not listed as potentially infringing. Tivo will claim that all E* DVR's infringe. The mpeg-2 versus mpeg-4 issue has not been addressed.

 

[nmoulton]

I'm probably missing something here but I thought all the newer receivers were exempt from this ruling, so doesn't it become moot as Dish upgrades everyone to MPEG4?

But E* is years away from updating everyone to MPEG4. It seems to be overlooked that the majority of E* channels are MPEG2 SD, and E* has not begun (or announced have they?) any plans to transition SD channels to MPEG4. How many years will it be for ALL channels to be HD? I'm thinking MANY!

 

[Hall]

It seems to be overlooked that the majority of E* channels are MPEG2 SD

Yeah, and if you go by the recent VOOM court filing, Dish has less than 1.5 million HD customers out of 13-14 million total. That's a LOT of receivers to swap out. The switch to MPEG4-only is probably two years (minimum) away.

 

[mike123abc]

I'm probably missing something here but I thought all the newer receivers were exempt from this ruling, so doesn't it become moot as Dish upgrades everyone to MPEG4?

TiVo will claim that they infringe too since they do time warping type trick plays. The injunction has a phrase that says something like all models not listed that are not colorably different. Essentially a clause to keep Dish from just changing all the model numbers and reintroducing as "new non infringing". The war zone thread: notice of TiVo injuction goes through all the arguments on both sides of this.

 

[Rey]

Maybe i'm over reacting but this whole situation has me freaked. i don't want to wake up one day to find out that our dvr's are disabled. i rather have a D* dvr than none at all.

 

[Claude Greiner]

For crying out loud, don't you people understand that its just not going to happen?

There is no way in hell that Dish will be forced to disable millions of DVR's

AGAIN, THERE IS NO WAY IN HELL THAT DISH WILL BE FORCED TO DISABLE MILLIONS OF DVR'S.

Worse case scenario if Dish looses, then they will simply settle the lawsuit and pay Tivo some sort of licensing fee.

Do you really think that Dish will risk loosing a significant portion of their customer base over a silly lawsuit?

Charlie Ergen is a very smart man, and he didn't get where he is at today by making bad decisions. It aint gonna happen!

 

[Hall]

For crying out loud, don't you people understand that its just not going to happen?

Claude, pick up a pen or a piece of paper or any inanimate object you have handy... Tell it that Dish's DVRs won't be shutoff. Those objects will listen just as good !!!

 

[darrencp22]

Let's keep this in perspective: According to Yahoo Finance the market cap of Tivo is 765 million, the market cap of Echostar is 15.44 billion. E* would NEVER allow their DVRs to be shut off, they would simply buy and swallow up Tivo. They have the money to do so, and that would cost significantly less than shutting off all their DVRs. I think the E* strategy is to try to make Tivo bankrupt, or at least worth much less, and then eventually they will buy them for much less.

"Simply"?? Acquisitions are not simple. I work for a fortune 500 company and i've been involved in two aquisitions over the past year.. they are not simple or cheap. Costs go far ebyond the actual purchase price.

 

[jansan]

Craig Moffett at Sanford C. Bernstein Co. has written several negative articles about DISH network and the satellite indistry. He predicted that DISH would have a net loss in subscribers last month (wrong) and Tivo's promising future (? at this time). He is just an analyst at this firm. He has same information as us. Echostar went on the offenve last week to find a favorable way to end future liagitation with Tivo. Tivo's only future is with cable companies. Unless, they can generate cash in the long term. This is a short-term company under five years.

Sources:
Free Preview - WSJ.com

 

[navychop]

Claude, I think some of us just want to be frightened, and will generate nonsense and ignore reality as necessary. I suggest a good roller coaster instead. sigh.

 

[allargon]

Tivo's only future is with cable companies. Unless, they can generate cash in the long term. This is a short-term company under five years.

Tivo and Netflix are two Silicon Valley companies that have defied the naysayers for years and survived. The latter even thrived despite everyone initially saying their business was doomed and easily replicable.

 

[mclarceny]

Articles in the wall street journal are bias just like any other news paper. Wall street journal == Rupert Merdock == Direct TV

 

[Thomas22]

Articles in the wall street journal are bias just like any other news paper. Wall street journal == Rupert Merdock == Direct TV

Murdoch sold all his interests in DirecTV long ago.

 

[jacmyoung]

This thread started with an analyst's view. So let's stick to that for a moment and read the timeline:

On 5/30 (Friday) the court status meeting took place, the next Monday morning before the market opening, an analyst gave a grim view of Tivo based on his take of the meeting, Tivo stock dropped by 9% that day.

Next day the analyst quoted by the OP came on and did his part, DISH's stock dropped by over 2%.

The next day DISH's stock recovered, while Tivo's continued to drop, though not by as much as that 9% dip.

So far this is the market reaction. We don't know what is going to happen in the future, but since we are only considering the market reaction to the lawsuit, I don't need to tell you who is winning at this point.

 

[lhfh]

Give dish to tivo. Who cares as long as i can watch tv with a DVR.

 

[Spize]

Let us get real. No court is going to order Dish out of business. And that is the almost inevitable result of ordering all DVRs turned off. Any judge that did so would see a stay issued almost overnight. Might even get to the Supreme Court, but I doubt that very much. I also doubt that the feds would stand by and let it happen.

The press, especially certain parts of it, have a vested interest in stirring up excitement. Warranted or not. Sure, it could happen. And we could also be hit by a comet tomorrow.

You could not be more wrong. If a court finds that Dish is continuing to violate Tivo's patents they absolutely can and will order the DVR shutdown(if they find Dish guilty), regardless of if it kills Dish.

That is the point of patent law, if I steal your concept and build a business with it the court wouldn't be the one killing my business, my violation did.

No judge will say, yes Dish cost Tivo a lot of money, but since they made so much money doing it I won't stop them... no, If Tivo is the victim they will do what is right by the patent holder regardless of the patent violator's business.

 

[Rey]

You could not be more wrong. If a court finds that Dish is continuing to violate Tivo's patents they absolutely can and will order the DVR shutdown(if they find Dish guilty), regardless of if it kills Dish.

That is the point of patent law, if I steal your concept and build a business with it the court wouldn't be the one killing my business, my violation did.

No judge will say, yes Dish cost Tivo a lot of money, but since they made so much money doing it I won't stop them... no, If Tivo is the victim they will do what is right by the patent holder regardless of the patent violator's business.

I couldn't agree more.:up

 

[tomcrown1]

You could not be more wrong. If a court finds that Dish is continuing to violate Tivo's patents they absolutely can and will order the DVR shutdown(if they find Dish guilty), regardless of if it kills Dish.

That is the point of patent law, if I steal your concept and build a business with it the court wouldn't be the one killing my business, my violation did.

No judge will say, yes Dish cost Tivo a lot of money, but since they made so much money doing it I won't stop them... no, If Tivo is the victim they will do what is right by the patent holder regardless of the patent violator's business.

If that happens the Superme Court would step in to stop it. If on the other and the Court finds that the current Dish model do not interfer which is what will happen than Dish will have to pay TIVO a boat load of cash and this the Superme court will not stop---in other words TIVO will get its money by years end.

 

[Stargazer]

Maybe Tivo will end up part owner of Dish Network. Maybe that is what they want.