Another article predicting the early death of Blu-Ray

jayn_j

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This one is by Brian Dipert of EDN magazine.

CES 2009: Blu-ray's continued struggles and the ramping ascendancy of online - 1/9/2009 - EDN

He basically brags that he predicted BD death last year and that digital download is well on the way to killing it. I feel he did a poor job of presenting his case, and actually felt compelled to post a comment there as well.

I dislike the concept of digital download, but more than that, it frightens me. Here was my comment to the article

jayn_j said:
I feel that the author started with an opinion/conclusion and then tried to find "facts" to support him. Will BD eventually die and be replaced? Of course. Will the killer be digital download? I desperately hope not.

First, even good bandwidth is not infinite. Providers will be forced to compress content in order to meet any increased demand. Think of Dishnetwork or Comcast "HD" content where both resolution and bandwidth have been compromised to stuff more into the limited space.

Second, if the studio controls the PPV distribution, they control what we can watch on a daily basis. Those Disney movies really will go back into the vault for seven years. With BD, even if they are OOP, they stil play.

Third, a PPV DD model encourages studios to change content to be politically correct. Remember those movies that removed the Twin Towers after 911? How about scenes where an actor has changed his political views, or where an actress becomes famous and later regrets that early nude scene? With BD, the content is out there forever. With PPV, it can change with the weather. That sort of censorship scares the hell out of me.
 
As long as there are people who remain unserved by broadband, there will be a need for something that can be carried in hand.

I don't think going off about editing helped your case.
 
Its all BS, downloads are a way off, and as stated, people have claimed the death of media a long time ago.

I like the BR press conference, where "paperless office was mentioned" :D

We all see how downloads killed the CD dont we :rolleyes:

I posted the number awhile back, the amount of itunes downloads per year compared to the amount of netflix shipments every month is staggering, media isnt going anywhere.

Lets also not forget, that as each year passes, BR is ahead of DVD at the same time in its lifespan.
 
FAP?

The new HSI caps going into place wont help either. If Im gonna spend $$$ on a movie, I want to be able to carry it over to someone elses house, or let them borrow it. Much easier with media, especially since the people that are up on new tech are in the minority.
 
To be honest, I was disappointed with my Panny 35. Prior, I had a Sony upconverter and I literally have to convince myself it was worth $250.00. Night and day difference? No way. Dusk and day, maybe. Up conversion not as good, either. Honestly thinking about selling it, since getting regular DVD's is so much easier (got a Red Box a mile away). IMHO, the hype is overblown if you already had a good upconverter.
 
Your experience is completely different from mine.

I went from a old Panny 480p player to a Sony $100 upconvert. The Sony did a good job, then I went to a Samsung BDP-1000. DVD playback was not as good as the Sony, but boy was BR nice. Then I went to the PS3, which had better upconversion than the Sammy and Sony, and better BR PQ than the Samsung.

Finally I ended up with the Panny 30 and now the 35. The BR PQ of the 30 and 35 is better than the PS3, and to me, the DVD PQ of the 35 is better than the 30, which was inline with the PS3.

Long story short, the Sony upconvert got left behind at the PS3 stage. A lot matter on your tv too, and its size.

The other thing I wouldnt trade for the world, is lossless audio, Im hooked now.

My dad has a Panny 1080i upconvert he bought last year. I just gave him a Insignia BR player, and the upconversion improvement is noticeable on his 37" LCD. We flipped back and forth Christmas night because I was curious as to the Funai upconversion.
 
Nah, took it two different friends of mine, different 1080p sets, 56" +. They also had the Sony. They agree. They told me thank you for being the Guinea pig.
 
FAP = Fair Access Policy

IOW, when you have crossed some quantity of download, often a point not disclosed, you are cut off, slowed down tremendously, or charged a fee. It's spreading.
 
As regards the comment about the early demise of Blu-ray, here are a few other winners:

# "I think there is a world market for maybe five computers." -- Thomas Watson, chairman of IBM, 1943.

# "But what...is it good for?" -- Engineer at the Advanced Computing Systems Division of IBM, 1968, commenting on the microchip.

# "There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home." -- Ken Olson, president, chairman and founder of Digital Equipment Corp., 1977.

# "640K ought to be enough for anybody." -- Attributed to Bill Gates, 1981, but believed to be an urban legend.

# "This 'telephone' has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a means of communication. The device is inherently of no value to us." -- Western Union internal memo, 1876.

# "The Americans have need of the telephone, but we do not. We have plenty of messenger boys." -- Sir William Preece, chief engineer of the British Post Office, 1876.

# "The wireless music box has no imaginable commercial value. Who would pay for a message sent to nobody in particular?" -- David Sarnoff's associates in response to his urgings for investment in the radio in the 1920s.

# "While theoretically and technically television may be feasible, commercially and financially it is an impossibility." -- Lee DeForest, inventor.

# "The concept is interesting and well-formed, but in order to earn better than a 'C', the idea must be feasible." -- A Yale University management professor in response to Fred Smith's paper proposing reliable overnight delivery service. (Smith went on to found Federal Express Corp.)

# "Who the hell wants to hear actors talk?" -- H. M. Warner, Warner Brothers, 1927.

# "I'm just glad it'll be Clark Gable who's falling on his face and not Gary Cooper." -- Gary Cooper on his decision not to take the leading role in "Gone With the Wind."

# "Radio has no future. Heavier-than-air flying machines are impossible. X-rays will prove to be a hoax." -- William Thomson, Lord Kelvin, British scientist, 1899.

# "So we went to Atari and said, 'Hey, we've got this amazing thing, even built with some of your parts, and what do you think about funding us? Or we'll give it to you. We just want to do it. Pay our salary, we'll come work for you.' And they said, 'No.' So then we went to Hewlett-Packard, and they said, 'Hey, we don't need you. You haven't got through college yet.'" -- Apple Computer Inc. founder Steve Jobs on attempts to get Atari and HP interested in his and Steve Wozniak's personal computer.

# "If I had thought about it, I wouldn't have done the experiment. The literature was full of examples that said you can't do this." -- Spencer Silver on the work that led to the unique adhesives for 3-M "Post-It" Notepads.

# "It will be years -- not in my time -- before a woman will become Prime Minister." -- Margaret Thatcher, 1974.

# "With over 50 foreign cars already on sale here, the Japanese auto industry isn't likely to carve out a big slice of the U.S. market." -- Business Week, August 2, 1968.

# "Drill for oil? You mean drill into the ground to try and find oil? You're crazy." -- Workers whom Edwin L. Drake tried to enlist to his project to drill for oil in 1859.

# "Airplanes are interesting toys but of no military value." -- Marechal Ferdinand Foch, Professor of Strategy, Ecole Superieure de Guerre.

# "Everything that can be invented has been invented." -- Attributed to Charles H. Duell, Commissioner, U.S. Office of Patents, 1899, but known to be an urban legend.

# "Louis Pasteur's theory of germs is ridiculous fiction." -- Pierre Pachet, Professor of Physiology at Toulouse, 1872.
 

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