Crystal Ball, Dec 2004

[nicholassjenkins]

In short, I am re-evaluating my TV Content Reception options, and I need your help.

I would like to compile a generally-accepted list of what each vendor does well or poorly, sticking with the majority, with the understanding that someone will always be on both sides of the fence. AND, I would like to compile majority expectations on how a few items will pan out over next 12 months...looking into peoples' Crystal Balls (CB). With enough response, I'll happily merge into an spreadsheet...

Here's what I see:
Echostar (E*, AKA: Dish Network) (I currently have had for 4 years):
- BUSINESS MODEL: Cheapest content provider at the low end, with best PQ at the high end
- GOOD: Excellent High Definition (HD) Picture Quality (PQ) -- not quite as good as OTA, but close
- GOOD: Good general coverage for Standard Definition (SD) material
- GOOD: UHF remote out of the box!
- GOOD: Component and DVI-D support on HD-Set Top Boxes (HD-STB)
- GOOD: Integration of Over-The-Air (OTA) and Satellite channels in Program Guide (PG)
- GOOD: Sirius arrangement
- MEDIUM: Generally good SD PQ, except Comedy Central!
- BAD: Limited HD choices
- BAD: Hardware+Firmware Stability/Promised, Missing Features
- BAD: Their software design model (gotta pick 1 platform and perfect it)
- BAD: Future MPEG4 screw waiting to happen
- BAD: Current Channel/Transponder organization (affects bandwidth and dish size/number required for reception)
- CB: BAD: Believe 942 will not have 2 independent OTA tuners
- CB: BAD: Believe Dish will not acquire VOOM or VOOM content in 2005
- CB: BAD: Believe Dish STB's will not have a way to backup HD material in 2005.
- CB: GOOD: Believe Electronic Program Guide (EPG) will be on all models before January 31, 2005.
- CB: GOOD: Believe Name-Based Recording (NBR) will be on all models before June 30, 2005 (allowing extra time, for historical reasons...)

DirectTV (D*) (Only what I've read, please provide first-hand experience):
- BUSINESS MODEL: SPORTS + Quantity (SD content + subscribers)
- GOOD: Sports Content
- GOOD: Tivo/Season Pass/NBR
- GOOD: Hardware/Firmware stability, overall
- GOOD: HD-Digital Video Recorder (HD-DVR) available, and functional
- BAD: Hardware/Firmware slow, especially HD-DVR
- BAD: Picture Quality, in general

Voom (V*) (Only what I've read, please provide first-hand experience):
- BUSINESS MODEL: Quantity of HD content
- GOOD: Volume of HD Content
- GOOD: Picture Quality, generally, although perhaps not quite as good as E* for HD, better than/same as E* for SD
- GOOD: Niche movie markets (ala Kung Fu)
- MEDIUM: Current generation Hardware/Firmware
- BAD: Customer Service
- BAD: Hemhorraging money to stay in business; cannot last more than 2 more years without dying or being bought without radically increasing customer base
- CB: GOOD: New DVR will be released by January 31, 2005, and will be best-of-breed in market.
- CB: GOOD: Will not sell out in 2005, regardless of what happens.
- CB: MEDIUM: 30 or more new channels will join the lineup by March 31, 2005 - a good; but, the bad is question of content + what will that do to the PQ of the existing content?

USDigitalTV(U*) (Only what I've read, please provide first-hand experience):
- BUSINESS MODEL: Few Channels provided OTA at minimum cost
- GOOD: Cost
- GOOD: More content than just OTA, but no shopping/Bingo channels
- GOOD: Less complicated wiring that Satellite (no switches...)
- MEDIUM: May or may not carry the "minimum" content desirable
- BAD: Will likely steal bandwidth from current digital OTA transmissions -- especially HD transmissions.
- BAD: Availability - only in 3 markets currently
- CB: MEDIUM: (Good or Bad) Believe this will expand to many markets in 2005.

I did not include any references to Big Ugly Dish (BUD) technology, because:
1) I know *NOTHING* about it, and
2) I assume that most people reading this will have a DBS system + OTA Antenna, but not a BUD.

Personally, I have limited my choices at this time to E* or V*, because (since I am not a sports nut) I see no clear advantage to choosing D* over E*; and the negative press I've seen on the HD-Tivo + its current expense preclude me from really switching for that capability. I believe the 942 will be cheaper, and provide adequate service after 6 months of tweaking - which I can stand.
Between E* and V*, I am enticed by the sound of V*, but I am worried that either I will regret the PQ, or the 21 HD channels of content, which some like and some don't...I am curious as to what the majority think of the content?
And, I will sorely miss the UHF remote if I make the switch. Then there is the issue of "will E* buy V* or not"? Recognizing that my prediction may be wildly incorrect, and E* may buy V* in 2005, I then have to ask myself "why move to V*, only to be b(r)ought back to E*?"
Although it is probably obvious, HD is my primary concern, followed by Comedy Central, then Discovery/TLC/HGTV/CNNHN (for me and my wife), then Nick/Disney/... for the kids.

So, I am hoping for 2 sets of commentary in response to this post:
1) Nick, I suggest you choose Vendor X, and given your preferences, here is why; and:
2) Here is my most-objective analysis of the vendors you mentioned above, to round out the comparison spreadsheet, for the benefit of all

I would very much appreciate as objective commentary as possible.
Thanks,
-NICK

 

[Stargazer]

Crystal Ball:

> Dish Network will delay launch of locals to the rest of the local markets due to having to take must carry locals off of the wing satellites. Instead of the rest being launched by the end of 2005 it will now be the end of the 2006.

> Dish Network Name Based Recording will be delayed until at least Spring 2005. It will be shown on the 522 receiver first then the 921/721/501/508/510 receivers.

> Dish Network will delay the launch of its two-way internet via satellite service that it planned on launching in the fall of 2005.

> Dish Network will launch at least a few HD channels until the release of the HD DVR which will be MPEG-4 compatible.

> Something will happen that none of us had even expected.

> All receivers being produced will be DVR's (if the functionality is not changed by law) within two to three years. These may even be HD DVR's. These are most likely to be HD's than HD DVR's at least at first until the price drops.

 

[TuxCoder]

Here's another great content source, to round out the crystal ball a little more.

Free To Air (FTA) satellite reception
BUSINESS MODEL: Not applicable here, but general idea is LOTS of content for FREE (legally, not hacking)
- GOOD: It's free (had to say one more time)
- GOOD: Lots of "distant local stations" from around the country
- GOOD: Many raw "on-location" news feeds and sports feeds
- GOOD: Occasional popular mainstream cable channels (and better ones, The Tube! ) for free
- GOOD: Excellent source of hundreds of international channels
- MEDIUM: Some "mainstream" channels, otherwise all fairly unique content
- MEDIUM: Connections range from very simple to quite complex, depending on needs
- BAD: Serious lack of capable, willing professional installers for hire
- BAD: Unless you want 8 dishes just for FTA, you'll need a motor which incurs delays when channel surfing
- BAD: No program guide
- BAD: No real form of customer support since there's not one singular entity providing this (and it's free)
- CB: GOOD: Who's to say, but I think it will get even better over time--more great content

Another "GOOD" I didn't put above is it's an excellent hobby for those with more technical mindsets. But this CB is geared for the masses so in general if you're just looking for a straight-up mainstream TV provider, you might steer away from FTA (for now, at least).

 

[robert luzzi]

nick,
ill post my predictions later on, but a question for you.

e* pq better than d* ????????? whatever you are drinking, send me some

....bob